Why the ACC’s solid start to basketball season could pay dividends on Selection Sunday

All three ACC basketball teams in the Triangle have played two games now, and after the conference opened the season with 23 straight wins, a run only the Big Ten could match, it’s time to draw some sweeping conclusions.

The good times didn’t last, of course. The odds were against both Boston College and North Carolina on Friday, and both lost, one in far more stirring fashion than the other.

Starting 23-0, now 27-2, is a pretty irrelevant stat — who and how you played matters more than raw wins — but it does help illustrate a dynamic the ACC will be watching closely this season.

The ACC’s Selection Sunday problems have been largely caused by two related factors: Too many bad losses in November and December, and not enough good wins. That sets the bar low, and once conference play starts, it’s very difficult to raise it.

Close losses to good teams don’t hurt that much, either, so while North Carolina and BC both lost on the same evening, only one was damaging to the ACC. Both Vegas and the analytics had the Tar Heels as a 6- or 7-point underdog at Kansas, so not only was that the best game of the young season — with UNC coming back from 20 down to lead late with a shot to force overtime at the buzzer in front of a frenzied home-court crowd at one of the sport’s greatest venues — the Tar Heels actually overperformed slightly, in analytical terms.

No harm, no foul.

Boston College, on the other hand, was always expected to lose at Virginia Commonwealth, but by nine or 10. Losing by 25 hurts, not only because it’s the first loss of the ACC season, but because it’s the first really bad loss of the ACC season. At least VCU is a solid team, margin of defeat aside, and it’s not like losing to, say, Cal State Fullerton, which Stanford flirted with for a good chunk of Friday afternoon before pulling away.

The Cardinal ended up covering the spread in that game, and it’s instructive to note that along with the ACC’s 27-2 overall record, it’s 16-12-1 against the spread to start the season — which is not an encouragement to gamble, but an illustration of how the ACC has slightly outperformed expectations so far.

But the ACC also lost the only really big game it has played, with another coming Saturday when Louisville hosts Tennessee. Playing well helps, but the ACC needs to post wins in some of these marquee matchups that it can refer back to in March, like Michigan-Wake Forest and Duke-Kentucky, imminently.

Even a game like Cal at Vanderbilt matters greatly. Neither team is great, but it’s a game the ACC isn’t expected to win against a power-conference opponent. In political parlance, it would be like flipping a safe seat. If Virginia can’t beat Villanova, in a year when the Wildcats have already lost to Columbia at home, that’s not going to reflect well on the ACC at large.

You want to shut up the Mountain West folks on Selection Sunday? Clemson has a chance to do it now when it goes to Boise State — a tough game, and not one the Tigers are expected to win at this point, but a winnable one.

There is no shortage of opportunities for wins like that before Thanksgiving, but the key for the ACC is actually winning them, if it wants more than a handful of teams in the NCAA tournament. The recipe is simple: No more bad losses, post some good wins.

Early returns are good, in the Triangle and across the ACC (except Chestnut Hill). Duke has blown out a pair of weaker teams at home, meeting lofty expectations. N.C. State hasn’t done any damage as it sorts through its new rotation and finds its rhythm. UNC struggled to put away Elon, then performed an epic second-half comeback in Lawrence. These are all good signs.

It’s just the beginning. But the beginning matters as much as the end.

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