Advertisement

Who are this year's CFP dark horse contenders?

nick bromberg
Senior writer
·5 min read

The College Football Playoff has expanded ahead of the 2024 season. But the pool of realistic national title contenders is still pretty small.

Per BetMGM’s odds, four teams have odds at or better than +850 to win the national title. Georgia is the favorite at +300, ahead of Ohio State at +325. Oregon is set at +700, while Texas sits at +850 after some backfield injuries.

Click here for the Viewer's Guide to the New College Football Playoff. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)
Click here for the Viewer's Guide to the New College Football Playoff. (Taylor Wilhelm/Yahoo Sports)

Overall, nine teams have odds of 20-1 or better to win the national title. After those nine, the defending national champion Michigan Wolverines are at +3000 along with Florida State, a team that went undefeated during the regular season in 2023.

Anyone behind those teams on the board can reasonably be considered a dark horse. Will any of them win the national title? Probably not. But if you look long enough, you can convince yourself that some teams have a case to win the national title. Here are the five dark horses that we’d consider outside of the main group of favorites.

You don’t have to squint too hard to see how Tennessee could be a national title contender. Nico Iamaleava is a Heisman favorite thanks to his pedigree as a former five-star recruit and his performance in the Citrus Bowl against Iowa.

He’ll have both Squirrel White and Bru McCoy to throw to along with an offensive line that brings back three starters. The defensive line could be one of the best in the SEC too. James Pearce returns after recording 10 sacks and former BYU linebacker Keenan Pili should be an immediate impact transfer.

The schedule is also favorable. There are trips to Georgia and Oklahoma, but Alabama is at home and every other SEC game is very winnable. An SEC title would mean a guaranteed bye in the CFP and if Iamaleava is truly a Heisman contender, then a national title isn’t totally out of the question.

Will Nico Iamaleava lead the Volunteers to the College Football Playoff this year? (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)
Will Nico Iamaleava lead the Volunteers to the College Football Playoff this year? (Julio Aguilar/Getty Images)

The Tigers have the best schedule of any team in the SEC, one of the best quarterbacks in the conference and a wide receiver who could be the best in the country at his position. You can’t blame Mizzou fans for dreaming about the playoff even though they all know that a punch in the gut seems to always loom around the corner.

Brady Cook threw for over 3,300 yards in 2023 as he made a monster improvement last season. Luther Burden had 86 catches for 1,212 yards and will be the focal point of opposing defenses. RBs Nate Noel and Marcus Carroll have each rushed for 1,000 yards before and could feasibly replace Cody Schrader’s production.

The defense was bolstered via the transfer portal and there’s reason to believe it could be as good as it was in 2023. With the SEC’s move to ditch divisions, Georgia isn’t on the schedule and the Tigers’ three toughest games are trips to Alabama and Texas A&M and a home game vs. Oklahoma. Don’t be surprised if Missouri sneaks into the SEC title game. And from there, who knows what could happen.

We think the Utes’ title odds are a bit low. We like Utah as the favorite in the newly expanded Big 12 and with the top four conference champions getting byes, a conference title means one fewer playoff game to play.

This is a team that showed just how much competent quarterback play matters in 2023. And Cam Rising is more than competent. The seventh-year QB should bring Utah’s offense back from “bad” to “very good” or better. Couple that with a phenomenal defense, and this is a team that is rightfully looking at the playoff and beyond.

It helps that Kansas State isn’t on the regular season schedule too. It’s not out of the question that Utah goes undefeated during the regular season if Rising is back to where he was in 2022.

Cam Rising is back at quarterback for the Utes this year after missing all of last season. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
Cam Rising is back at quarterback for the Utes this year after missing all of last season. (Brian Rothmuller/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

The Tigers have lost at least three games in each of the past three seasons but there’s a case to be made that the trend breaks in 2024 despite a Week 1 game against Georgia.

An offensive philosophy switch in 2023 was up and down. Another offseason in former TCU OC Garrett Riley’s system could be a massive thing for QB Cade Klubnik and his comfort level. The offensive line brings back four starters and should be one of the best in the ACC.

There’s a fair amount of turnover on the defense, but you’re still allowed to put faith in Dabo Swinney’s ability to recruit. There’s plenty of talent on the roster even if the Tigers are still averse to the transfer portal. The schedule also includes a trip to Florida State, but a loss there shouldn’t eliminate the Tigers from ACC title contention.

If you’re in believe-it-when-you-see-it mode with the Hurricanes, we don’t blame you. But here’s the optimistic case. Cam Ward could be the best quarterback Miami has had in years and he’s got two great receivers to throw to in Xavier Restrepo and Jacolby George. The offensive line has three starters back and scored a big addition in former Indiana center Zach Carpenter.

The defense needs to replace S Kam Kinchens, but Francisco Mauigoa is back and so is Rueben Bain. It should be a very good unit once again.

It’s also possible to believe that Mario Cristobal won’t make the same game-management mistakes that he made in 2023. That’s a given, right? The schedule starts with a trip to Florida, but the toughest ACC games against Virginia Tech and Florida State are back at home. If Miami can get back some of its swagger over the course of the season, there’s a pretty high ceiling for this team.