Advertisement

Which MLB playoff long shot will be this year's surprise postseason team?

Here's how the Giants, Cardinals, Cubs and others can sneak into October

yahoo sports staff · mlb.com staff
·8 min read

The story below is a collaboration between writers from MLB.com and Yahoo Sports, who are joining forces this season to cover topics around baseball.

The season’s stretch run tends to have a surprise or two up its sleeve.

On this date in 2023, the D-backs’ odds of making the playoffs, per FanGraphs projections, were at 17.4%. They wound up in the World Series. On the same date in 2021, the sub-.500 Cardinals were at a measly 1.4% before they made a run to a wild-card spot. In other words, as long as there’s a chance, there’s a chance.

Which team might pull off that unexpected surge into October in 2024? As of Friday, FanGraphs postseason odds had 15 contenders with relatively robust odds — nearly 40% or better. Eight other clubs were below 1% (six of them actually at 0%). That leaves seven long-shot contenders, each of whom fell between 3% and 20%. (These odds factor in not only the standings but also teams’ true talent level and remaining strength of schedule.)

To help determine which club could overcome those numbers to claim a playoff spot, we asked seven writers, from Yahoo Sports and MLB.com, to each make the case for one of them.

Teams are listed below in order of their postseason odds entering Friday's games.

Although they haven’t been above .500 since late May, when their winning percentage peaked at 29-27, the Giants have hung around the bottom portion of the muddled NL wild-card mess and seem to be playing their best baseball just in time to make a push down the stretch. They weren’t exactly big buyers at the trade deadline — in fact, they dealt away one of their best hitters in Jorge Soler — but their decision to hold onto Blake Snell despite whispers about his potential availability immediately paid off, with Snell throwing a no-hitter in his first start post-deadline. It took a while, but Snell is finally starting to look like what San Francisco paid for as the grand finale of its highly active winter of spending in free agency.

And while Soler is gone and Jung-Hoo Lee is out for the year due to a shoulder injury, Matt Chapman is another of San Francisco’s big offseason additions who has looked spectacular lately, ranking as one of baseball’s best hitters since the All-Star break. Add the return of veteran lefty Robbie Ray to the rotation and the stunning power breakout of shortstop Tyler Fitzgerald, and suddenly this roster is looking far more formidable than it did at any point over the season’s first few months.

San Francisco’s schedule also offers the opportunity to make tangible progress in the standings if the team can continue to play well at the right time; September features six more games against Arizona, six more against San Diego and three at home against St. Louis to wrap up the regular season. It won’t be easy, but after a couple of seasons of maddening mediocrity following the miraculous, 107-win campaign in 2021, this year’s squad looks to have enough high-end talent to rise above the messy middle and claim a place in the NL wild-card picture.

— Jordan Shusterman (Yahoo Sports)

If the Cardinals are going to make the postseason, it’s going to be about one thing: offense. Paul Goldschmidt and Nolan Arenado have not had their typical All-Star-caliber seasons, yet St. Louis has stayed in contention thanks to its starting pitching. If the Cardinals have any hope of making a late push to October, they need those two to return to true form and help the likes of Alec Burleson, Brendan Donovan, Masyn Winn and trade-deadline acquisition Tommy Pham.

The Cardinals also need to find a way to add a bit more slug to their game, as they’re currently 21st in MLB in homers. Without the help of the long ball, St. Louis is going to have to rely on other ways to push runs across the plate if they hope to have a chance.

— Russell Dorsey (Yahoo Sports)

The Rays sold at the trade deadline more than any other team on this list, shipping out several key players over the course of July. But the essence of Rays baseball is that there is always more talent waiting in the wings, ready to fill those roster spots. Shane Baz and Jeffrey Springs are now in the rotation for the first time all year after returning from injuries. Christopher Morel and Dylan Carlson, both buy-low deadline acquisitions, are in the lineup.

So is Curtis Mead, a top-100 prospect before this season. Junior Caminero, MLB’s No. 3 prospect at present, has been raking at Triple-A and figures to be up soon. All of those players have a lot to prove, of course, and the Rays (outscored by 45 runs this season) have five games to make up in the wild-card standings. That’s going to be a tall task given their recent trades, but if there is a team here that has made a habit of defying expectations, this is it.

— Andrew Simon (MLB.com)

Because they ultimately decided not to sell, the Cubs have what several more legitimate contenders still don’t: a sound rotation. Their big four — Shota Imanaga, Jameson Taillon, Justin Steele and Javier Assad — have a combined 3.22 ERA. The bullpen has posted an MLB-best 2.61 ERA since June 1. Consider that, at least for now, squared away.

But the Cubs have a .382 slugging percentage since the All-Star break, which probably won’t be enough to support the pitching staff. “Just hit more homers” isn’t actionable advice, but if the Cubs can get more, particularly out of Dansby Swanson (.230/.300/.357) and new addition Isaac Paredes (.237/.345/.424), neither of whom has recaptured his 2023 form, they’d be in pretty good shape.

— Shanthi Sepe-Chepuru (MLB.com)

Is getting swept at home by the Padres a good look for an NL wild-card hopeful? Obviously not. Neither is the 4.5-game gap between Pittsburgh and a playoff spot. But the Buccos are worth keeping tabs on just because their starting pitching is so good. Since phenom Paul Skenes debuted on May 11, the Pirates have the second-lowest rotation ERA in baseball. Fellow rookie hurler Jared Jones, who has been sidelined by a lat strain since early July, is set to make a rehab start Thursday. Stalwart Mitch Keller has the sixth-lowest ERA in the National League.

And while Pittsburgh’s offense can be a frustrating slog at times, there have been signs of life. Oneil Cruz has an .824 OPS since May 1. Bryan Reynolds was an All-Star for a reason. Rowdy Tellez turned his season around after a horrendous first two months. Catcher Joey Bart has been a sensational post-hype prospect reclamation project. If this group can score enough runs, the Pirates might have a chance.

— Jake Mintz (Yahoo Sports)

The Rangers return largely the same lineup from their 2023 World Series-winning club, a team that led the American League in average and OPS and tied for the AL lead in home runs. But Adolis García (.655 OPS) and Marcus Semien (.727 OPS) have taken steps back at the plate this season, while Josh Jung and Evan Carter have been limited by injury.

With Tyler Mahle back and Jacob deGrom set to return soon, the Rangers should have the arms to make a run — but they’ll need their bats to be excellent down the stretch to win the AL West or earn a wild-card berth.

— Theo DeRosa (MLB.com)

With a plus-45 run differential this season, the Reds have an expected record of 63-52, but they’ve underperformed that mark by seven games, thanks in part to their 9-20 record (.310) in one-run games. Only the White Sox have a lower winning percentage in such games.

Although Cincinnati would need to leapfrog six teams to nab the third NL wild-card spot, there’s a lot of baseball left to be played. If the Reds start to see their luck in one-run games turn around, they have the talent to make a late playoff push, especially with the way Elly De La Cruz (1.027 OPS since July 8) and Hunter Greene (0.27 ERA since July 6) have been playing lately.

— Thomas Harrigan (MLB.com)