Advertisement

Which MLB players have increased their free-agent value the most this season?

With strong walk years, Juan Soto, Teoscar Hernández and Corbin Burnes are among those looking forward to big paydays this winter

russell dorsey
National MLB Insider
·9 min read

Free agency is going to be here before you know it, and this offseason is expected to be filled with significant player movement. Juan Soto will be this year’s version of Shohei Ohtani, with the entire market revolving around him.

As we look ahead to November, there are several players, Soto included, who have played their way into big paydays, increasing their value with their performances this season. Here are seven players who will be ecstatic whenever and wherever they finally sign.

It feels like Juan Soto has been a free agent for the past three years. One of the youngest pending free agents in baseball history, his production and résumé are nearly unprecedented.

And Soto has had the perfect walk year. In his first season in the Bronx, he is thriving in pinstripes. The 25-year-old outfielder has not only been one of the best hitters in baseball, but also he and Aaron Judge have easily become the best duo in the sport. Soto is currently slashing .307/.438/.615 with 34 homers and 102 walks. He’s on pace to have career highs in home runs and hits.

Soto is going to finish the year in the top three in AL MVP voting, with his teammate Judge likely running away with the award. And when the dust settles and free agency has run its course, just how much will Soto have signed for?

The fact that the slugger is represented by super-agent Scott Boras is a big factor in how this winter will go. Given that Soto is the Shohei Ohtani of Boras’ vast client roster, most in the industry believe the number will hover between $550 and $600 million.

Don’t think for one second that having the largest contract in MLB history by present-day value won’t matter here, because it will. Accounting for deferrals, Ohtani’s $700 million deal is worth $460 million in present-day value. For Soto and Boras, $500 million is going to be the starting point, and when it’s all said and done, $575 million or even $600 million might not be out of the question.

It wouldn't be fair to call Anthony Santander’s 2024 season a breakout because he has been a force in Baltimore's return to relevance over the past few seasons. But you could say he has taken his game to another level, because that’s exactly what he’s been doing during his walk year. The switch-hitting outfielder is one of baseball's best sluggers this season, sitting behind Aaron Judge with what is already a career high in homers.

Some might say that Santander benefits from the protection of AL MVP candidate Gunnar Henderson, but you could just as easily say that both Henderson and Adley Rutchman benefit from Santander’s protection. The 2024 All-Star has shown that he can be a force for a team in a pennant chase and do damage in the middle of any lineup with 40-homer power.

Santander’s monster season comes at the perfect time in his career. He’s the best hitter on the market this winter outside of Soto, which should create high demand for Santander, and going into his age-30 season next year, there’s plenty of upside and longevity in his bat. A deal for $150 million-plus seems well within the realm of possibility for the Orioles outfielder.

There’s something to be said for consistency, and few at the shortstop position have been more consistent over the past four seasons than Willy Adames. He has made Milwaukee his home since coming over from the Rays in 2021, and it has been one of the best things to happen to the power-hitting shortstop.

Adames has already notched his fourth straight 20-homer season, and he’s currently on pace for career highs in hits, runs batted in and walks — not to mention the fact that he consistently plays 145-plus games per season. At a position where offensive firepower is an advantage, Adames is set to be the best shortstop in this year’s free-agent class, and it’s not close.

In recent years, shortstops have broken the bank in free agency, and with his track record of consistency and productivity, it’s hard to imagine Adames not following suit. His deal will likely fall somewhere between Javy Baez’s $140 million with the Tigers and Dansby Swanson’s $177 million with the Cubs.

Juan Soto is going to be a very, very rich man this winter. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)
Juan Soto is going to be a very, very rich man this winter. (Bruno Rouby/Yahoo Sports)

You can make the case that Jack Flaherty has been one of the best stories in baseball this season. After breaking out in St. Louis in 2019, finishing fourth in NL Cy Young voting and looking like one of the next dominant starters in the NL, Flaherty’s body didn’t allow him to see all of that potential come to fruition.

But after signing with the Tigers this past offseason, Flaherty rediscovered the electric form that made him one of baseball’s up-and-coming starters. Not only has the 28-year-old right-hander stayed relatively healthy, but he has also returned to being a true strikeout artist.

Flaherty’s bounce-back is well-timed, first because he is now one of the best names on a free-agent market without many top-tier starting pitchers and second because going into free agency at age 29 will likely yield the Dodgers’ right-hander the payday he has been looking for since his days in St. Louis.

This has been anything but a normal season for Blake Snell, but somehow, he’s going to end up in a significantly better place than he started. After he signed a week prior to Opening Day, things didn’t begin well for the two-time Cy Young Award winner. He had a delayed start to his season, and he struggled for much of the first half, with a 9.51 ERA over his first six starts.

But give credit to Snell for bouncing back after a tenuous start to his tenure with the Giants. Not only has he turned his season around, but also lately he has looked like the pitcher who dominated the National League and captured the NL Cy Young in 2023. The 31-year-old left-hander has a 0.99 ERA over his past seven starts and looks as dominant as ever, including tossing his first career no-hitter against the Cincinnati Reds earlier this month.

For a while it looked like Snell was destined to opt in to the second year of his two-year deal with San Francisco, but now Snell should go back to the marketplace as one of the most coveted free agents available in a class void of top-tier starters outside of Corbin Burnes and Max Fried.

There might not be a player who has increased his value as much as Teoscar Hernández has this season. The 31-year-old outfielder has made his presence known in his first year with the Dodgers, with 26 home runs and a 133 OPS+.

Hernández previously appeared due for a big payday following his All-Star season with the Blue Jays in 2021, but then slight regression in ‘22 and further regression in his one season in Seattle in 2023 changed that narrative. But this year, he has rebounded to All-Star-caliber form in his LA renaissance.

With the Dodgers, Hernández has shown consistent power in a hitting environment not necessarily conducive to sluggers, and he has shown improvement as a hitter. The 2024 Home Run Derby champ has increased his walk rate while decreasing his strikeout rate, and he’s on pace to have one of the lowest strikeout totals of his career.

It’s not easy to hit around other stars, yet despite the likes of Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman hitting around him, Teo has more than thrived. He has been a needed force for the Dodgers in an injury-plagued season. It’s not hyperbolic to say that he has made himself $100 million with his bounce-back this season.

Similar to Soto, the most crucial thing for right-hander Corbin Burnes this year was staying healthy and performing, and in his first season in Baltimore, that’s exactly what he has been able to do. And unlike in Milwaukee, where there was plenty of strong starting pitching around him, Burnes has had the pressure of being every bit the ace for an Orioles team with its sights set on October.

New team, new league, playoff race, walk year — none of it has fazed the 2021 NL Cy Young winner, who will likely be a top-five finisher in AL Cy Young voting. Burnes is currently top-five in the AL in wins, ERA, innings pitched and earned runs allowed. Not only has his dominance translated to the AL East, but he has also been leading the rotation as Baltimore tries to win the division and make a run at the World Series.

Burnes will be the best starting pitcher available this winter, and he’ll have no shortage of bidders, which means a hefty payday is coming his way. Gerrit Cole’s deal with the Yankees, with a total value of $324 million and average annual value (AAV) of $36 million, is a good guide to where Burnes’ numbers could land. But keep in mind that Cole’s deal was signed in December 2019. Inflation and the trajectory of contracts could see Burnes’ deal eclipse what Zack Wheeler received on his three-year extension with an AAV of $42 million.