Yahoo Sports Where Milan’s chances of a top eight finish stand going into final Champions League round
AC Milan took a big step towards direct qualification for the last 16 of the Champions League as they beat Girona 1-0 at San Siro last night.
The only goal of the game came late in the first half through Rafael Leao as he showed the composure that had been lacking from previous attempts, receiving Ismael Bennacer’s pass and firing a rocket of a shot into the roof of the net.
Girona had their chances including a miss from Donny van de Beek through on goal and a disallowed striker from Bryan Gil where he was literally a few centimetres offside. The main thing, though, was three points and a clean sheet, the first under Sergio Conceicao.
The result means a fifth consecutive win in the Champions League, and sixth spot in the table claimed. It is likely that a draw against Dinamo Zagreb will be enough to seal direct qualification for the last 16, but just how likely?
According to OptaAnalyst, the chances of Milan finishing inside the top eight spots is now 73.6% going into the final round. They have mathematically already qualified for at least the play-offs, which makes up the remaining 26.4%.
The percentage is calculated based on the difficulty of the remaining fixture, and that is why Bayer Leverkusen – despite being lower in the table – currently have a higher chance of getting into the top eight.
The equation remains simple for the Rossoneri: win in Zagreb to ensure they will at least maintain sixth spot but possibly climb too, depending on how results go for the teams above. Below is how the final round of fixtures looks.
➤ Aston Villa vs Celtic
➤ Bayer Leverkusen vs Sparta Prague
➤ Borussia Dortmund vs Shakhtar Donetsk
➤ Young Boys vs Red Star Belgrade
➤ Barcelona vs Atalanta
➤ Bayern Munich vs Slovan Bratislava
➤ Inter vs Monaco
➤ RB Salzburg vs Atletico Madrid
➤ Girona vs Arsenal
➤ Dinamo Zagreb vs AC Milan
➤ Juventus vs Benfica
➤ Lille vs Feyenoord
➤ Manchester City vs Club Brugge
➤ PSV Eindhoven vs Liverpool
➤ Sturm Graz vs RB Leipzig
➤ Sporting Lisbon vs Bologna
➤ Brest vs Real Madrid
➤ Stuttgart vs PSG
