Where Dolphins stand in playoff race and with tiebreakers, and 15 notes and thoughts

Fifteen notes and thoughts after the Dolphins’ 34-15 win against the Patriots on Sunday, as they quickly turn their attention to the Thanksgiving night game at Green Bay:

▪ The Dolphins (5-6) moved to the eighth spot in the AFC with Sunday’s win (the top seven AFC teams make the playoffs), but then received no help later in the day when Denver won 29-19 at Las Vegas.

So Miami (5-6) has work to do to claim one of the three wild card spots currently held by the Chargers (7-3), Baltimore (7-4) and Denver (7-5).

Should Miami overcome Denver’s 1 1/2 game lead over the Dolphins for the final wild card spot, keep in mind that the Dolphins/Broncos tiebreakers are very close.

Because the teams do not meet this season, head-to-head isn’t applicable. The second tiebreaker is conference record. Miami is 4-4 in the conference, while Denver is 3-4.

If the teams finish with the same conference record, then their record against common opponents would break the tie. Miami and Denver have six common opponents this season: Seattle, the Jets, the Raiders, the Rams, Cleveland and Indianapolis.

Miami has gone 2-2 against those teams, with games remaining against the Jets (twice) and Browns. Denver has gone 3-2 in those games, with games remaining against Cleveland and Indianapolis.

The Broncos have one fewer game remaining than the Dolphins do, but Denver has several difficult games. Denver plays Cleveland on Monday night, Dec. 2, then has a bye and then closes against the Colts, at the Chargers, at Cincinnati and home against Kansas City.

The Dolphins’ six remaining games: at Green Bay on Thursday, then home to the Jets, at Houston, home to San Francisco, at Cleveland and at the Jets.

Meanwhile, the teams that currently hold the first two wild card spots -- the Chargers (7-3) and Baltimore (7-4) -- meet Monday night in Los Angeles.

The Ravens play home against Philadelphia next Sunday afternoon, then have a bye, then play at the Giants, home to Pittsburgh, at Houston on Christmas and then home against Cleveland.

After playing the Ravens on Monday, the Chargers play at Atlanta, at Kansas City, home to Tampa Bay, home to Denver, at New England and then at Las Vegas.

The Chargers are 5-2 in the AFC and the Ravens are 4-4.

▪ Before the game, CBS’ Bill Cowher said if the Dolphins close “6-1, they’re in. They’re fast on offense, getting better with Anthony Weaver on defense.”

“Who wants to see the Dolphins?” CBS’ Matt Ryan warned.

▪ Tua Tagovailoa’s updated numbers in five games back from the concussion: 130 for 170 for 1277 yards, 11 TDs, one interception and a 116.2 passer rating, which is the best in the league over those five games. The Dolphins are averaging 29 points in those five games.

“When he’s on the field, he’s one of the best in the business,” CBS’ Nate Burleson said.

On Sunday, he closed 29 for 40 for 317 yards and four touchdowns.

“You can argue no one is more important to their team than Tua,” Ryan said.

His 106.3 passer rating for the season is fifth in the league, and his 73.3 completion percentage leads the league.

This was Tagovailoa’s 14th 300 yard passing game. The second quarter marked the second time in his career that he has thrown for at least 175 yards and three TDs in a quarter; he did that against Baltimore in 2022.

▪ Also impressive: Since Tagovailoa returned, Miami has gone three and out just three times in 48 possessions, with two of those possessions happening on Sunday.

The Dolphins have had eight touchdown drives of 60 yards or more over the past three weeks, including 60, 66 and 80 on Sunday. That followed four such drives against the Raiders, including a 97-yard sojourn.

Mike McDaniel said Tagovailoa was frustrated with himself at halftime but then moved on and a key is he is “not changing how you play [regardless] of positive or negative results. Since the Buffalo game, he’s really taken a step in that direction. It’s become more of the norm and not the exception.”

▪ Line of the day from Tagovailoa, on playing in cold weather in Green Bay this week: “I’m excited to kill narratives. Let’s go. Bring it on…. We’re excited to go to Green Bay and show everyone in prime time what we can do.”

McDaniel has told the team that beating “good teams” and playing well in “cold weather” will be the question marks with this team until “they set that narrative straight.”

▪ Per NextGen Stats, the Dolphins used motion before 93.7 percent of their plays on Sunday, their highest rate in a game this season. With pre-snap motion, Tagovailoa was 27 for 37 for 268 yards and four TDs; those four TDs are tied for the most by any quarterback in a game this season.

▪ The Jalen Ramsey blitz continues to be lethal. He entered Sunday with 10 pressures and a sack on 33 pass rushes this season. And on Sunday, on blitzes, he had a sack and forced a premature Drake May throw that Tyrel Dodson intercepted.

▪ The Dolphins this week likely will need to clear out at least two spots on the 53 man roster. And a case could be made for a third spot to be open.

Safety Patrick McMorris, already designated to return, must be activated before the Green Bay game to be eligible to play this season.

The Dolphins have another 10 days to activate guard Isaiah Wynn.

And a case could be made to bring back Tyler Huntley off injured reserve, though Skylar Thompson wasn’t to blame for the fumbled handoff to Jaylen Wright during Thompson’s cameo on Sunday.

Players who might be at risk include guard Andrew Meyer and receiver Dee Eskridge.

▪ The Dolphins smartly gave tight end Jonnu Smith a second year on his contract. His cap number next year ($4.6 million) is certainly manageable.

▪ Chop Robinson has more sacks in the past nine quarters (3.5) than he did against all Power 5 teams last season (two, against Iowa and Rutgers).

The Dolphins appear to have been right in projecting that Robinson’s skill set would translate to NFL success.

▪ The Patriots played only one high safety during much of the first half, which helped free Jaylen Waddle for his 144 yards on eight receptions. The 144 yards were his most in a home game and second most in a game; he had 171 in a September 2022 game at Baltimore.

Waddle has caught a TD in all four home games he has ever played against the Patriots, catching 23 of 33 targets (including 8 for 9 on Sunday).

▪ The Dolphins had only three penalties for 17 yards, while New England had 10 for 75. What’s encouraging is that problems have been fixed after happening earlier in the season – the penalties, the inefficient offense and communication breakdowns on defense.

Now let’s see it continue against Green Bay.

▪ Linebacker Tyrel Dodson played well after replacing Anthony Walker Jr., whose hamstring injury sidelined him Sunday and likely beyond.

Dodson told CBS-4’s Kim Bokamper what struck him is “how close guys are, how they meet outside the facility, have dinner. This team is very together…. I was happy to play for a top 10 defense. Walker has been like a big brother to me. Jordyn Brooks has been playing his tail off.”

▪ I’m not sure why Dolphins GM Chris Grier, even at 2-6, would have even considered taking back a 2026 fifth-round pick (from Baltimore) for Calais Campbell before Mike McDaniel stepped in and said it wasn’t a good idea and Campbell said he was fine with staying with Miami.

That supports the notion that Grier’s job is safe and he isn’t worried about job security, because he didn’t seem concerned with how losing Campbell would have hurt Miami’s final record. Agent Drew Rosenhaus, in his weekly segment with WSVN-7, a few weeks ago, said he believes there’s no question whatsoever about Grier’s job security and that he will be back next season.

The past few weeks likely removed any questions about that.

▪ The Dolphins, who have a two-game lead over the Jets in the AFC East, would play a home game against the second place team in the AFC West (Chargers or Denver) and a road game at the second place team in the AFC South (Indianapolis or perhaps Tennessee) next season if that holds.