What We Learned: When NHL teams don’t know they’re rebuilding

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)

Call it one hand not knowing what the other is doing.

The good news for the Canucks is that they know they should be rebuilding this roster. It’s flat-out not very good, even if it’s leaning young. Ryan Miller, The Sedins, Alex Burrows, Loui Eriksson, Derek Dorsett, Alex Edler and Jannik Hansen are all on the wrong side of 30, but that’s only eight guys. It’s not a terrible position.

The bad news for the Canucks is that they seem to not know how to go about this rebuild, with a combination of misevaluation of talent and an idea that they’re significantly better than they actually are. The GM and the team president seem to very much not be on the same page.

This has become a bit of a well-known laugh line already, but for those who haven’t heard, Trevor Linden went on record last week as saying he doesn’t know why people think the team “would be flipped around quickly.” They might have gotten it from GM Jim Benning, who upon taking the Canucks job said, “This is a team we can turn around in a hurry.” It’s not word-for-word, but man is it ever close.

The Canucks were famously picked to finish last in the NHL by a lot of people, and that seems to have cheesed off a lot of the executives. A number of projections had them in the low- to mid-60s as far as the team point total goes, which is probably a bit pessimistic. Closer to the high-70s feels about right, but even still, that’s a pathetic performance for a team this expensive, and more to the point it’s a problem because it all but assures this team doesn’t get Nolan Patrick unless a lottery ball bounces their way.

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So if the Canucks are largely and rightly seen as one of the worst teams in the league, but Trevor Linden says “at the end of the day, we’re going to be in the fight (for a playoff spot),” one wonders where the disconnect arises. But you don’t have to look all that hard to find it.

To give you an idea of the kind of duality of thinking the Canucks are putting into things these days, a perfect example comes in the avatar of Bo Horvat. He had 16 goals and 40 points last season as a sophomore, and is widely considered the “future face of the Canucks” when the Sedins finally shuffle out of the NHL (if they’re not traded first). And yet, the 40-point third-year man who will lead this team into whatever its next incarnation happens to be was getting… fourth-line minutes in the Vancouver season opener on a line with Derek Dorsett?

For most reasonable observers of the game, Horvat probably projects as something like a solid or even very good No. 2 center. He might surpass that, because he’s only 21, but mathematically it seems unlikely he suddenly starts hitting 60-plus points on a regular basis. So if that guy ends up as the face of your franchise, you have a serious problem.

Other reasons the Canucks think they’re in line to take a step forward after finishing 28th last season are varied. They dramatically improved their top-line scoring capabilities by adding Loui Eriksson this summer. Eriksson is very good and should forge some quick chemistry with the Sedins; they looked good at the World Cup of Hockey. This was a good add, though one wonders about the long-term implications given the Sedins are five years his senior, and he’s already 31. One supposes if Eriksson becomes that good-in-the-room veteran who can reliably play 40-point, two-way hockey in a top-six role, they don’t care much during a rebuild. Of course, the Canucks front office may or may not want to turn it around quickly, and if so, that contract could become an albatross. And more to the point, it seems like they think adding Eriksson gets them over some sort of hump, when it in actual fact does not.

There’s also that the Canucks pinning playoff hopes on having Brandon Sutter and Alex Edler stay healthy for the entire season this time around. They played just 72 games combined last year, and Vancouver felt that badly hurt their chances to compete for the playoffs. This, however, seems to be something along the lines of that misevaluation of talent alluded to earlier. Today’s Edler isn’t exactly the same guy in his mid-20s who was routinely an impressive defender. He’s not bad or anything, but he’s also not the difference-maker he once was.

As for Sutter, well, the nicest thing you can say is the Canucks like him a lot. They gave him five years at $4.375 million AAV, and also gave him a retroactive no-trade clause onto his previous contract. They did this sight unseen; Benning traded for Sutter on July 28, 2015, and had him extended by Aug. 4, when he hadn’t even played a game for them.

The Canucks seem to be of the inexplicable belief that losing these two was the difference between competing for the playoffs and finishing 28th. This shows a complete lack of understanding when it comes to how impactful even league-best players at high-leverage positions can be. Vancouver missed the postseason by 12 points last year and would have had to leapfrog four other teams to make it in. Having Sutter (whose career high in points is 40, set in 2009-10) for 60-odd more games and Edler for another 30 or so probably doesn’t get them close.

Talent misevaluation isn’t just on those two players. It doesn’t seem like they understand their defense is a shambles, if Erik Gudbranson — a guy Florida didn’t even want — is their big blue line upgrade. Those hoping for big steps forward from Sven Baertschi, Brendan Gaunce and Markus Granlund are likely to be left disappointed. It would be a little surprising if any of them come close to 40 points. The leader among that group in “career highs” is Baertschi, at 28.

Is Ryan Miller, at 36 and coming off a decent season, still any good? You never know with 36-year-old goalies. And if he’s not, what do we make of “career-.904” Jacob Markstrom? Was his .915 in 33 games last year an indicator of what’s to come, or do the previous 50 games of .896 hockey tell a more likely story? The answer, one suspects, is somewhere in the middle, but that’s not good enough in today’s NHL.

The point of all this being that anyone projecting the Canucks to drop to 65 points is probably being entirely too glass-half-empty. They’re not that bad. But at the same time, anyone who thinks this is a team that can put up a point total anywhere close to the low- or mid-90s fundamentally doesn’t see the problems this club has. And there are a lot of problems.

It’s not that tough to say which is worse: The pessimist’s view of things at least puts the Canucks in a position to get a good draft pick, right? Someone that can help the team potentially as soon as next year. A little pain now for help down the road, even if they’re not actively tanking (which one can argue is more painful).

The optimists — which, unless this recent media blitz is a smokescreen, include the entire Canucks front office — simply don’t understand the game through a modern lens.

That means they can’t and shouldn’t be trusted to turn the club around. Quickly or otherwise.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Well, it’s not exactly a great start. But is it one we should have foreseen? Hmm.

Arizona Coyotes: More news on the Coyotes’ potential new arena is on the way. Can’t wait to see this dragged out for years too.

Boston Bruins: Could be a long season, I think.

Buffalo Sabres: Honestly it might be easier to say who on the team isn’t hurt at this point.

Calgary Flames: Starting 0-2-1 after games with Edmonton twice and Vancouver once probably isn’t the start “competing for the playoffs” Calgary had in mind.

Carolina Hurricanes: The question of who should captain this team is a very good one. Feels like Jordan Staal, right?

Chicago: Have you ever seen a guy score a hat trick with three goals closer to the net than Richard Panik did here? Good lord.

Colorado Avalanche: Speaking of hat tricks, Joe Colborne had one of those.

Columbus Blue Jackets: One thing of which I can definitively assure you is that Gregory Campbell is not too good to play in the AHL.

Dallas Stars: “Seguin and Been score a lot but the defense is bad” is the subtitle of the current Stars’ biography.

Detroit Red Wings: A truly unforeseeable turn of events.

Edmonton Oilers: Any time adding Eric Gryba to the mix results in what seem to be positive outcomes, just give it another minute or two.

Florida Panthers: Panthers on pace for 164 points this season. Who can stop them?

Las Vegas No-Names: Now they’re saying the name will be revealed on Nov. 18. They’ve said this kind of thing before. Believe it when you see it, folks.

Los Angeles Kings: Please please please please please.

Minnesota Wild: Still trying to figure out this Minnesota team. Seems like they’re in the same boat.

Montreal Canadiens: Artturi Lehkonen looked pretty good in both games so far. Something to keep an eye on.

Nashville Predators: If this is what the Central is gonna be like all year, sign me up.

New Jersey Devils: Boy this feels familiar.

New York Islanders: Matthew Barzal already made the Islanders. Shout out to the Bruins.

New York Rangers: Jimmy Vesey’s impact has been huge! One shot on goal and no points in two games! Wow!

Ottawa Senators: Erik Karlsson has four points and the Sens are 2-0. Norris time!

Philadelphia Flyers: Well, at least they’re scoring a lot, right?

Pittsburgh Penguins: God if the kids on this team actually take steps forward this season, let’s just give them another Cup now. They played at a 108-point pace last season under Sullivan. Building on that would be terrifying.

San Jose Sharks: Might want to sign Brent Burns to that extension now, before he gets any more expensive.

St. Louis Blues: Love to see Carter Hutton outduel Henrik Lundqvist. Blessings to him!

Tampa Bay Lightning: “Legal or not.” Hmm. Cool.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Hmm seems like this Marner kid isn’t going back to London.

Vancouver Canucks: By the way, the thing with the Canucks is that they’re not only not good, they’re also brutal to watch. It wasn’t easy sitting through Saturday night’s shootout win.

Washington Capitals: Oh yeah, that’s “fancy stats darling you used to be able to sign for $1 million every summer Dan Winnik” to you, baby!

Winnipeg Jets: Ah yes, we’re gonna act like it’s good the Jets are making the kid twist because they won’t use him properly. Cool. Great.

Play of the Weekend

Holy hell. The Sedins put together a shift of six shot attempts in 1:34 as they made a 5-on-5 situation look like a 5-on-3 power play. Guys also whiffed on three other passes. Then they scored the game-tying goal. This is incredible hockey.

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How bout those 2-0-0 Edmonton Oilers. They’ve scored 12 goals already! McDavid has been in on half of ’em. I love it! (Wait, they’re 2-1-0? Let’s just focus on the positive …

Minus of the Weekend

The only reason the Flames even got a point on Saturday was a Loui Eriksson own goal.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “ekarlsson65” is just going to have some fun with this one.

OTT trades:

D – Cody Ceci 2.8 million
D – Dion Phaneuf 7 million
F – Derrick Brassard 5 million

Total: 14.8 million

to EDM for:

D – Mark Fayne 3.625 million
D – Andrej Sekera 5.5 million
F – Ryan Nugent Hopkins 6 million

Total: 15.125 million

Signoff

It’s just that she has a career now. She’s a slot jockey.

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)