What We Learned: The case against Paul Maurice

(Hello, this is a feature that will run through the entire season and aims to recap the weekend’s events and boils those events down to one admittedly superficial fact or stupid opinion about each team. Feel free to complain about it.)

People say the Winnipeg Jets are having a disastrous season, and it’s easy to see why.

While their offense is actually better than you might expect (it was eighth in the league in total goals after Saturday’s win over St. Louis) but their defense has been horrific. They’ve allowed the second-most goals in the League — 151 in just 49 games — and their goalies seemingly can’t make a stop.

Things got so bad for Connor Hellebuyck and Michael Hutchinson that the team had to recall Ondrej Pavelec, the NHL’s worst starting goaltender in recent memory, which must have broken at least one of the seven seals.

Obviously recalling Pavelec, an organizational embarrassment, was a move of last resort, but the team felt it was out of options that weren’t firing Paul Maurice into orbit.

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Fair enough, I guess, because if you look purely at the numbers, this is indeed a goaltending issue. Hellebuyck is playing the worst season of high-level hockey (we’re talking back to his NAHL days) in his career, and Hutchinson, well, let’s just say he often looked like a better option only in comparison to Pavelec.

What’s interesting, too, is that the Jets are by and large not the awful team they’re often portrayed to be. For one thing, they’re only three points out of both a wild card and divisional playoff spot, albeit with more games played than all but one team in front of them. It’s tough to imagine that’s a particularly surmountable lead, but also it’s not like they’re Arizona Coyotes. Fake parity plays a role here as well, but nonetheless they’re at least relatively close to a playoff spot.

Moreover, though, they’re barely below 50 percent in adjusted corsi, and in fact they’re north of it in expected goals, largely because they have one of the lower xGA/60 numbers in the entire league (just 2.31, seventh in the NHL). They’re also comfortably in the top half of the league in terms of giving up scoring chances.

So the question is an easy one: Why the hell is the goaltending so bad if the quality of shot they’re generally giving up is so low? On the one hand, you can say Hellebuyck and Hutchinson just haven’t had good seasons and obviously that is correct. Hutchinson’s lack of quality has cost the Jets more than 11 goals in all situations — which equates to about four points in the standings — and Hellebuyck has cost them almost seven. These are bad numbers, to be sure.

But it’s also worth noting that Hellebuyck in particular has been victimized by a leaky defense to an extent that most other goaltenders have not. Among the 40 goaltenders with at least 900 minutes at 5-on-5 this year (guys who are either starting or in a 1a/1b situation), Hellebuyck faces the 15th-most high danger shots on goal per 60 minutes, which is going to weigh on your numbers. Now, his save percentage against those shots is also 11th-lowest in the league, so that’s not good, but you can’t say the Jets aren’t hanging him out to dry far more than they are Hutchinson, who’s just having a horrendous season.

Of all the shots he faces, Hellebuyck sees a higher percentage of high-danger shots on goal than all but 15 other goalies in this group, which seems like it isn’t going to help him be successful. Hellebuyck and Hutchinson both have some of the lowest medium- and high-danger save percentages in the league, which I guess you’d expect.

But before we go about saying Pavelec is here to save this club, since he’s .914 in his two games so far — and believe me, some people are making this argument — here’s a stat for you: he hasn’t faced a single high-danger shot in either game.

Every single one, in fact, has come from the medium-danger area. His save percentage on those shots is obviously .914; Hellebuyck’s is .912. Neither are any good, because the league average on middle-danger shots this year is .924. By this token, Pavelec has actually already cost the Jets 0.56 goals versus an average goaltender.

(It should go without saying that the PK has been terrible in just about any facet you want to come up with: actual success percentage, the number of attempts they give up, the number of shots they give up, etc.)

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Again, Hellebuyck has at least been an above-average or even elite goalie at every level he’s played so far, and there’s a very good chance that even his rough start to this season is something of a fluke, rather than some sort of harbinger of doom.

There has been some research to indicate that Paul Maurice’s goalies always have lower save percentages with him as the coach than without him, and that certainly tracks with the Eye Test on how his teams play.

When he first came to Winnipeg, people talked all the time about the “free pizzas” his team gave up to other opponents. High-quality scoring chances were common. Despite some other encouraging progress made because this is a legitimately good core — from Laine and Scheifele to Little and Wheeler up front, and Byfuglien and Trouba at the back — the free pizzas remain.

It seems that this might be down to coaching to some extent, but also the fact that the Jets don’t have a lot of depth, particularly on the back end. There was a time when Toby Enstrom, for example, was a good up-and-coming defenseman. But now he’s 32, playing 23 minutes a night and doesn’t drive offense, so what in the end are you really paying for? Meanwhile the Tyler Myers injury certainly didn’t help matters (he hasn’t played since Nov. 11 and he’d been very good to that point).

Here’s what really speaks to Winnipeg’s defensive issues: Byfuglien plays more than 27 minutes a night. That’s fine, that’s what you want out of your No. 1 ‘D,’ even if he hasn’t been great this season. Trouba plays 24. Enstrom 23. And after that there’s a huge dropoff: Josh Morrissey at 18:30, then Ben Chiarot at 14:17. Paul Postma only gets 11:16.

So that tells you: a) Maurice doesn’t trust anyone outside his top-3 D with Myers on the shelf, and b) he shouldn’t because that’s a serious depth issue.

Is goaltending a problem? Absolutely. Is it one that, given Hellebuyck’s track record at all levels, should sort itself out? Probably. Everyone would agree he’s their goalie of the future, because Pavelec and Hutchinson simply aren’t long-term solutions. And if the offense really can’t be criticized, you have to ask if the coach and GM have done a good enough job dealing with the back end.

I’d argue we have years of evidence to suggest Maurice has no idea how to put together an effective defensive system, and that Kevin Cheveldayoff has neglected this aspect of his team even while dramatically improving other aspects of it (mostly through the draft). Morrissey is young, and Myers coming back could help. But apart from maybe Tucker Poolman or Logan Stanley there’s not much light on the horizon, and that’s a problem as Byfuglien and Enstrom age into their mid-30s. That’s more of a long-term issue, though.

No team is perfect and coming into the season you might have expected a team with this roster to be better. And given some of the deficiencies this team has had under Maurice in the past few years, regardless of personnel, how do you not see him as the problem?

This team is a lot better than when he took over as coach. That’s undeniable. The results are the same, both in the win/loss record and the reasons for those wins and losses. It’s not really a problem of composition, it’s a problem of process. That’s the coach’s job.

And it’s the GM’s job to act when a problem with an obvious fix presents itself.

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What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: Hopefully Jakob Silfverberg can return to the lineup quickly but you never want to see a guy miss time with a head injury of any kind.

Arizona Coyotes: Yes, I too remember when beating the Lightning was an impressive feat.

Boston Bruins: It’s Fluto talkin’ the real ish again. None better in the business.

Buffalo Sabres: Sabres have four straight wins at home and then beat the Canadiens in Montreal. Maybe they’re turning things around after a horrible start?

Calgary Flames: Friendly reminder that Sam Bennett recently got healthy scratched (well-earned, too) and Sean Monahan has been truly bad this season. Something to worry about long-term.

Carolina Hurricanes: Carolina has been playing very well lately, but still has stuff to work on if they want to get into the playoffs. Like the power play.

Chicago: Hell yeah that’s the good speculation.

Colorado Avalanche: I guess you gotta keep trying things.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Little-discussed: Columbus’s win on Saturday night was only their fourth in nine games. Two of them were against Carolina, one was against Philadelphia, and one was against Tampa. None of them are playoff teams.

Dallas Stars: Folks, Antti Niemi and Kari Lehtonen are the best goaltending tandem in the league. Believe me. Absolutely great. They stop so many shots, you wouldn’t even believe it.

Detroit Red Wings: Ah jeez, poor Kevin Shattenkirk.

Edmonton Oilers: Is Lucic turning it around after a bad start? Well he has a goal and an assist in his last 11 games, so I’m gonna say no.

Florida Panthers: Sometimes you just play Connor McDavid, y’know?

Los Angeles Kings: Wow an actual trade! I can’t believe it! This is gonna be so… Schilling for Latta? Never mind.

Minnesota Wild: Nino Niederreiter is basically Exhibit A for why I’m optimistic about an Islanders turnaround in the near future.

Montreal Canadiens: “Carey Price emerging from slump.” Seven lines in: “Price allowed at least three goals for the ninth time in his last 11 starts.” Well hey. He had one decent game against the freakin’ Sabres and still lost in OT. C’mon.

Nashville Predators: My big rowdy child is back!

New Jersey Devils: I gotta tell ya, gang: Trade Schneider, keep Kinkaid.

New York Islanders: Uhhh, congrats?

New York Rangers: At this point yeah Michael Grabner’s shooting percentage is I’m pretty sure like 121, but he’s got the goals, baby.

Ottawa Senators: If only I could think of a demonstrably bad goalie who had an unbelievable short run to lead the Senators to more success than they actually deserved, and who convinced management he was actually very good. I just can’t think of one in their recent past who got a three-year deal and is also bad again. Hmm. Hmmmmm.

Philadelphia Flyers: Oh uh actually yeah it’s good that they’re falling apart.

Pittsburgh Penguins: This Crosby kid’s still got it.

San Jose Sharks: David Schlemko is such a good low-key addition for the Sharks this summer.

St. Louis Blues: Ken Hitchcock will end this season as the third-winningest coach in NHL history. That rules.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Man, this is a great question.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Oh really that guy who never plays in games was “a little inconsistent” in his first game since Nov. 12? I cannot believe it. Crazy.

Vancouver Canucks: Guess what, guys. The Canucks are still very bad.

Vegas Golden Knights: This is cool I guess.

Washington Capitals: The Caps haven’t won in regulation in Dallas since October 1995. What?

Winnipeg Jets: Patrik Laine says he needs a few more practices but he’s back from that concussion, and that’s great news for everyone.

Play of the Weekend

The thing that’s amazing about McDavid is he makes torching two guys look so routine.

Gold Star Award

The dinosaur kid at the Canucks game? Sbisa love aside, there’s a kid who gets it.

Minus of the Weekend

It is with a heavy heart that I must announce the Winnipeg media is at it again.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “Siludin” is wise beyond measure.

BOS David Pastrnak

for

VAN Chris Tanev

Signoff

I believe it was a boking accident.

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Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)