What We Learned: Market set for a Sean Monahan extension

Late on Friday, when most organizations tend to throw out end-of-week bad-news dumps, two NHL franchises actually had some very good news to share with their fans.

Both ensure that their extraordinarily talented young forwards will stay in the fold for years to come, at decent enough price points that you won’t turn up your nose at the cost. Winnipeg re-signed Mark Scheifele to an eight-year, $49 million deal ($6.125 million AAV), and Colorado gave Nathan MacKinnon seven years and $44.1 million ($6.3 million AAV).

What’s interesting here is that if you go by pedigree alone you’d probably feel like Colorado, paying its player an extra $175,000, got the better deal here. MacKinnon is, after all, a No. 1 overall pick who won the Calder as an 18-year-old when both he and Scheifele were rookies. That is to say that Scheifele, as a 20-year-old, was outperformed by a kid about two and a half years younger than him.

In the last three seasons they’ve had shockingly comparable NHL careers: Scheifele has 216 games played, MacKinnon 218. Scheifele has 57 goals, MacKinnon 59. Scheifele has tallied 87 assists, while MacKinnon has notched 94. You can go on like this, but the idea here is that they seem like relatively comparable players. The fact that they land $125,000 apart in AAV seems like a decent enough bet on Colorado’s part, given that MacKinnon is locked up until his age-27 season (with more RFA years eaten up by the contract) versus Scheifele being signed until he’s 30. Both players will probably prove to be “worth it.”

These are also pretty comparable to the recent contract signed by Aleksander Barkov. Barkov got slightly fewer years (six) and slightly less money ($5.9 million AAV). But that’s potentially because he started more slowly than either of these guys: only 191 games played in the last three seasons, but 52 goals and 67 assists has him at least in the neighborhood. However, his 5-on-5 goals per 60 minutes as a 20-year-old blows the other two out of the water, and his primary assists per 60 is also slightly greater, which probably makes up for the slower start (playing with Jaromir Jagr doesn’t hurt, though).

These are all big contracts given to young centers coming out of their ELCs. But when this latest news came out, it was hard not to think of what this meant for Calgary’s Sean Monahan, who is likewise out of contract after three very good seasons to start his career.

Age-wise, he falls right between Scheifele and MacKinnon/Barkov; his first season was also 2013-14, but he was 19 at that time, versus 20 and 18 for the other three players, respectively.

So when you see these deals, you think to yourself, “Well, Monahan probably lands in that same area, right?”

Well, yes and no: Monahan has played slightly more games (237) than the other two, scoring a lot more goals (80, up more than 20-plus on the other players) but landing in the same area on assists (just 79).

Goalscoring is clearly a skill that is more valuable than playmaking in and of itself, so maybe you just call it a wash. If the Flames were to sign Monahan for six to eight years and $6.2 million AAV, that probably keeps everyone happy.

But we know that hockey is more than the number of games you play and the number of points you score. Those are still the primary thing people are going to look at (maybe throw in plus-minus too, ha ha ha) but underlying numbers are also very important. In this regard, MacKinnon tends to distance himself from the pack a bit in age-20 seasons.

MacKinnon may not score as many goals per 60 minutes as his peers, but he has a lot more assists, and an overwhelming ability of to push play and generate a lot of shots in the attacking zone greatly outweighs that of the other three. All played their age-20 seasons with talented linemates, but all are more or less mediocre-to-unimpressive at shot suppression. But that ability of MacKinnon to both make plays and and drive shot attempts for makes him more valuable. Given the talent threshold with him in particular, that really shouldn’t be surprising.

MacKinnon and Barkov also tend to get better performances out of their linemates — regardless of who they are — versus when those players play away from them. Scheifele and Monahan actually dragged their teammates down a bit. In Monahan’s case it’s worth noting that anyone besides he and Gaudreau that another Flame might have played with in 2014-15 were getting considerably less help because the Flames were a one-line team with no real defense beyond Mark Giordano and T.J. Brodie, with whom the Monahan line played a big chunk of its minutes. The same is true for MacKinnon, because the Avs are a shallow team as well.

A little more context shows that of this group, only one player is actually better at suppressing goals against than his peers and his teammates alike, and that’s Monahan. While everyone else gets scored on slightly more than their teammates (and with the exception of Scheifele, covers that with better scoring overall), Monahan — with the aforementioned defensive help — does come off as a lot more impressive in a number of categories.

All are getting about the same usage in terms of ice time and quality of teammate, though it’s worth noting Monahan and Barkov got far more defensive deployment, not that it really matters. It’s also worth noting that Barkov is pretty clearly the best at getting shot attempts through to the net, and he along with Scheifele also carry some reliably higher shooting percentages in terms of unblocked attempts actually going in the net. Part of the reason for that?

They’re generally shooting between six and eight feet closer to the net than Monahan and MacKinnon — low-to-mid-20s versus the low-30s — and that makes a much bigger difference than you might think. MacKinnon makes up the difference there in terms of volume shooting (10-plus shots per 60 versus about five to eight for the other three). Barkov and Scheifele also generally do a better job drawing penalties. Monahan, at plus-3 in terms of drawn versus committed, is by far the weakest of the group.

Altogether, you can make the argument that these players effectively have the same impact on the ice. And it’s a strong, positive one. For that reason, we know more or less what Monahan should get from Calgary this summer.

Joe Sakic, Tom Rowe, and Kevin Cheveldayoff have done him a huge favor in setting the market for a young No. 1 center lower than many would have expected. If Brad Treliving can get him to do the Yzerman thing and take less money for a lot of years to keep a strong core together, that would be a coup.

But if Monahan comes in at more than what MacKinnon got, it’s pretty clear the Flames won’t be getting a lot of value on a per-dollar basis from the contract. Treliving has had a whopper of an offseason so far, and a sensible deal for Monahan would be a great move to stick the landing.

Once you get that sorted out, all you have to do is worry about locking down Johnny Gaudreau. Just give that kid a blank check.

What We Learned

Anaheim Ducks: I love that the Bernier trade is basically an extension of the Freddy Andersen trade, except Anaheim was like “Nah dude you gotta eat that July 1 bonus, not us.”

Arizona Coyotes: The move of the Coyotes’ AHL team to Tucson is good news for the club team at the University of Arizona. Ooo, they should go Div. 1 now.

Boston Bruins: *middle finger emoji*

Buffalo Sabres: Ah it is the “breathless development camp update” part of the summer. In August I will long for it, but for now it is stupid and bad.

Calgary Flames: This is a nice little story here.

Carolina Hurricanes: Is this good?

Chicago: Looks like “necessary” doesn’t mean what it used to. Sad to see it go.

Colorado Avalanche: There’s basically no chance for Tyson Jost to take a break from hockey. He got a few weeks off when his Junior A season ended, but then had to go to the draft. Then he got another two weeks and had to go to Avs development. Next up is World Junior camp. Then he starts at the University of North Dakota not long after that. Poor li’l fella.

Columbus Blue Jackets: Maybe hoping a bad roster will improve from within isn’t wise. But hey maybe everyone shoots 10 percent too.

Dallas Stars: Jamie Oleksiak better be ready to go next year. This team didn’t have a good defense in the first place, then lost Alex Goligoski and Jason Demers.

Detroit Red Wings: Jeff Blashill getting quite the workout this summer, carrying this much of Ken Holland’s water can’t be easy.

Edmonton Oilers: Oh wait the Oilers aren’t trading good nice boy Ryan Nugent-Hopkins now, folks. False alarm on all those rumors! Shocking!

Florida Panthers: Hey, me neither. Expectations aren’t worth worrying about.

Los Angeles Kings: Tyler Toffoli needs a new contract next summer. Maybe he lands in the MacKinnon/Scheifele/Monahan/Barkov area too?

Minnesota Wild: Why does everyone freak out about RFAs and draft picks not-signing by x date? Who cares? No one’s gonna offer sheet him.

Montreal Canadiens: That’s what you think, bruh.

Nashville Predators: The Preds are re-installing the ice this week, so people can skate or whatever all summer long. That’s cool.

New Jersey Devils: Yeah, nostalgia and all, but they really shouldn’t bring Elias back.

New York Islanders: The Islanders have already said they’re gonna try to get a Tavares extension done next summer so there’s no free agency drama. Good idea.

New York Rangers: This is very, very worth tracking for the Rangers. Lock him in as long and cheap as you can, because a Chris Kreider breakout season always seems right around the corner.

Ottawa Senators: Hmm, nah.

Philadelphia Flyers: A Flyers prospect focused on using his toughness? Get outta here folks!

Pittsburgh Penguins: Kessel getting hand surgery for an injury that plagued him all season? Can’t win with guys like that.

San Jose Sharks: Should the Sharks drop Tomas Hertl, who made their top line one of the best in recent memory, to the third-line center role? I’m gonna say no.

St. Louis Blues: Jake Allen has like two years before he starts getting Brian Elliott-ed.

Tampa Bay Lightning: Oh yeah that’s what these guys need: Jonathan Drouin becoming a monster.

Toronto Maple Leafs: Hmm, 10 seems like a lot.

Vancouver Canucks: That message: “Who cares?”

Washington Capitals: Ahhhhh, here we go baby!!!!

Winnipeg Jets: No one thought the Jets were cheapskates, but they’re a budget team that has historically spent inefficiently, which gave them less money to sign their actual good players. That’s not the same thing.

Gold Star Award

Bergevin being like, “Nah that Subban trade won’t follow me around forever,” is the most adorable thing. You do you, Marc.

Minus of the Weekend

When you’re relying on a prospect to bring you a “winning spirit” you’re not in great shape, organizationally speaking.

Perfect HFBoards Trade Proposal of the Year

User “Drivefor5” is on top of things.

Signoff

The baby looked at you?

Ryan Lambert is a Puck Daddy columnist. His email is here and his Twitter is here.

(All stats via Corsica unless otherwise noted.)