What Vladimir Tarasenko brings (and can't bring) to the Ottawa Senators

After firing his reps and reportedly missing out on more lucrative multi-year offers earlier in 2023 NHL free agency, Vladimir Tarasenko surprisingly signed a one-year, $5-million contract with the Ottawa Senators on Thursday.

This all comes after a tumultuous time for the 31-year-old winger who weathered serious shoulder issues plus highs and lows with the St. Louis Blues, then experienced ups and downs as a rental for the New York Rangers. Being that this is a mere one-year pact, it’s possible that joining the Senators may end up being just another detour in a journey full of twists and turns.

If nothing else, Tarasenko once again has plenty of motivation to prove his worth in the NHL amid another contract year. But what does this all mean for a Senators team painfully attempting to reach up from a lengthy rebuild to more legitimate contention?

Tarasenko somewhat fills DeBrincat void

To be clear: Going from Alex DeBrincat to Vladimir Tarasenko is a downgrade.

Senators GM Pierre Dorion touched on some interesting facets of Tarasenko’s game in what was a rather canned and bland quote regarding the free-agent signing.

Despite shoulder issues and the march of time knocking his once-elite shot down quite a few rungs, Tarasenko can still fill the net. He scored 18 goals and 50 points in 69 games last year, which would translate to about 21 goals and 72 points over a full 82-game campaign. Such numbers aren’t that far off from Alex DeBrincat’s production with Ottawa in 2022-23 (27 goals, 66 points in 82 games).

Beyond goals and assists, Tarasenko could fill some of the transition void left behind by DeBrincat’s departure. Dorion’s not outrageous in pointing out that Tarasenko is an underrated passer, too.

Tarasenko's drawbacks, salary cap challenges

Look only at this past season and DeBrincat and Tarasenko match up surprisingly closely by Evolving Hockey’s RAPM charts. Granted, some of that might be a shared insult, as Tarasenko is no longer the positive play-driver Dorion glowed about.

Overall, you should expect quite a bit more from DeBrincat than Tarasenko, but Ottawa landing “almost DeBrincat” really isn’t half-bad. Limiting risks with a one-year deal at a reasonable $5M clip makes it easier to stomach (and allows Tarasenko to save face).

Nonetheless, repeating results from the DeBrincat experiment could mean another round of letdowns.

If the Senators end up being trade deadline sellers instead of buyers, then a full no-trade clause could limit returns for Tarasenko much like it was tough to get some value back for DeBrincat’s rights this summer.

More immediately, Tarasenko's price tag brings the Senators close to the salary cap ceiling with Shane Pinto headlining their list of lingering RFAs. It’s likely the addition of Tarasenko calls for a subtraction elsewhere.

Senators' playoff outlook looks rosier

As the previous section highlighted, it’s important to take note of some red flags. Tarasenko isn’t a perfect player, from injury risks to deep defensive flaws.

If this was just Tarasenko for DeBrincat, one could reasonably expect a step back. However, the Senators have some reason to hope that Tarasenko can replace some of what they lost in DeBrincat while the team improves in other ways.

Most importantly, the Senators hope they patched up a glaring weakness in net by signing Joonas Korpisalo.

Ideally, the Senators can combine almost-as-good offense, potentially bolstered goaltending and a defense featuring a full season of Jakob Chychrun and the continued maturation of their young core.

On paper, Tarasenko could more or less occupy DeBrincat’s role as a second-line winger, allowing Ottawa to keep its dynamic top line together more often than not.

The team will face some interesting questions. Will Tarasenko also replace DeBrincat on the top power-play unit, or should the Senators try to get Claude Giroux in the top group instead?

Getting the most out of Tarasenko would be nice, yet bringing along burgeoning young talent should supersede his demands, even if it pushes the winger down to the third line at times.

Ultimately, the key is for the Tarasenko signing to supplement the Senators’ success, rather than him being the sort of foundational piece he once was for the Blues. It’s all worth a shot, even if that’s the reasonable, albeit unsatisfying, defense for Ottawa's previous pursuit of DeBrincat.