What to watch for at the F1 Canadian Grand Prix: A Red Bull reckoning on tap?

The 58th edition of the Canadian Grand Prix will run Sunday with Red Bull looking to continue its run of dominance while the pecking order throughout the rest of the field could shuffle.

Max Verstappen is the prohibitive favorite to win his sixth race of the season (-275 at BetMGM), but that doesn't mean fans are in for a predictable afternoon.

The combination of uncertain weather conditions and a shifting balance of power behind the dominant Red Bulls has the potential to result in a tumultuous race. Here are a few storylines to keep an eye on in Montreal:

Can Mercedes build on its momentum?

Mercedes put a significant upgrade package into its W14 car prior to the Monaco Grand Prix and it looks to be paying off right away. Mercedes has scored 56 points in the last two races and Lewis Hamilton and George Russell occupied the other two podium places behind Verstappen at the Spanish Grand Prix.

The changes, however, don't appear to be a silver bullet for the Silver Arrows as concerns about the car's seat position persist —and Red Bull still has a significant pace advantage. F1's cost cap could also make it more difficult for Mercedes to keep upgrading its vehicle through the season as this change probably didn't come cheap.

For now, Mercedes seems to have an advantage over its most immediate rivals — Aston Martin and Ferrari — and it needs to capitalize on that advantage before the other two teams are able to close the gap.

If neither Ferrari or Aston Martin can keep up with Mercedes in Montreal, Sunday should be a good day for Lewis Hamilton. The seven-time world champion has won the Canadian Grand Prix seven times — including his maiden win — and never finished worse than fifth. Last year he came third despite Mercedes' status as the third-best team on the grid at the time.

How will Lance Stroll fare at his home race?

The spotlight has seldom found Stroll this season despite the fact he's behind the wheel of a far more potent vehicle than he's had in recent years. The Canadian has scored 64 points fewer than Fernando Alonso. It's the biggest gap between any teammates in the standings.

While Stroll has underperformed in an impressive car, he's performed well in his hometown in the past with three points-scoring finishes in four starts. He's never finished above ninth, but he's usually been behind the wheel of machines with suspect pace.

For most of the season, Alonso's excellence and Aston Martin's revival has kept attention off Stroll. On Sunday, his performance will be heavily scrutinized.

He's never brought a car this good to Canada, and the crowd will be behind him at the Circuit Gilles-Villeneuve.

Are we going to see a bounce-back performance from Sergio Pérez?

After briefly threatening to challenge Verstappen for the driver's championship earlier in the season, Pérez has come back to earth lately. He has failed to reach the podium in two straight races despite piloting the best car in the field.

Red Bull team principal Christian Horner told SkySports that the widening gap between Pérez and Verstappen could be a positive for the Mexican veteran because it will take the pressure off, but Horner can't be happy with seeing his second driver fail to capitalize on the car's dominance recently.

Pérez is known as 'King of the Streets' for his excellent performance on street circuits and Montreal is technically a street circuit. But it's a lot different than Monaco, Saudi Arabia and Singapore and he's rarely lived up to that name in Canada. In nine trips to Montreal he has one podium, one fifth-place finish, and six races where he's come in between 10th and 14th. Last year, he retired due to a gearbox issue.

What about the weather?

If you're an F1 fan who's never been to Montreal it would be easy to get the impression that the city experiences a constant downpour. That's not the case, but the rain does tend to come around in June, and the Canadian Grand Prix is synonymous with wet conditions.

As it stands, the forecast is calling for plenty of rain on Saturday which could affect qualifying, and Sunday is looking like a mixed bag. Teams will have to be on the ball and able to shift strategies on the fly if there's a wet track Sunday. If recent history is any indication, that might not be a good thing for Ferrari.

Is Alonso's grip on third in the driver's standings going to slip?

After standing on the podium for five of the first six races of 2023, Alonso had his worst finish of the season at his home Spanish Grand Prix two weeks ago when he was seventh.

F1's elder statesman was dealing with floor damage that affected his pace, but he's now just 12 points ahead of Hamilton in the standings after the seven-time champion closed the gap by a dozen in Spain.

The rivalry between Alonso and Hamilton is well documented, and the Aston Martin driver will have to hope that his car is in better shape this time around as Aston Martin could bring some updates to its cars in Montreal.

Alonso has not had a good time in Canada over his storied career. He's started in Montreal 17 times, and although he won there in 2006 he's been unable to finish seven races and has just one points-scoring effort since he was sixth in 2014. That was a ninth-place finish a season ago.

How will Charles Leclerc fare?

Last season Leclerc didn't finish lower than sixth in any race he finished on the way to coming second in the driver's championship. He's currently seventh in the standings and he's finished seventh or worse in two of the last three races.

It has been a nightmare season for Leclerc and podiums have been a tall order with Ferrari looking like the fourth-best team.

The good news for Leclerc is that his track record in Montreal is solid. In 2022 he authored a brilliant drive that took him from 19th to a fifth-place finish.

He came in third in 2019, and managed to score a point driving for Alfa Romeo as a rookie in 2018. If Leclerc has a comeback performance, his 11th-place at the Spanish Grand Prix — his first finish outside the top 10 in 32 races — will look like an outlier.

Can Alpine go from plucky to dangerous?

The French outfit occupies an odd space in the F1 world right now as it has more than twice as many points as the team below it in the constructor's standings and less than half as many as the squad above. Ferrari is fourth in the standings with 100 points, while Alpine is fifth with 40 and McLaren is a distant sixth with 17.

Most of Alpine's points have come in recent weeks as well. Esteban Ocon's third-place finish in Monaco was a season highlight, but it's not the only encouraging sign for the team. Both Ocon and Pierre Gasly have been far stronger in recent races after a horrendous start to the season.

Alpine has scored just six fewer points than Ferrari over the last three races and Ocon is the only driver among the two teams to finish on the podium in that span. The French team is probably stuck in fifth in the constructor's standings for the foreseeable future, but it could start to close the gap to Ferrari if its recent performance continues.