What the first half of the 2019 Blue Jays season has taught us

The 2019 Toronto Blue Jays didn’t travel north of Dunedin looking like a good team, but the 58-104 record they’re on pace for would be worse than the most pessimistic projections.

There have been a few pleasant surprises like the suddenly powerful Eric Sogard, the surprisingly steady Trent Thronton, and Lourdes Gurriel Jr. - whose production has exploded of late.

Far more numerous are the instances of disappointment. Up and down this roster, players have struggled to meet expectations, gotten injured, or both. Here are a few things we’ve learned from 81 games of subpar baseball:

Danny Jansen isn’t the slam dunk “catcher of the future”

Based on his minor-league production and 2018 cameo, Jansen looked ready to take the catching job and run with it, potentially for the better part of a decade. While the 24-year-old has improved his framing and throwing, the .184/.269/.274 line he’s sporting - even after a strong outing against the Yankees - just isn’t good enough.

The Blue Jays are going to give him plenty of rope to figure things out at the plate - especially if he continues to get better behind it - but unless the second half of his season is far better than the first, it’ll create questions at a position where the club seemed set.

Reese McGuire isn’t looking like an appealing alternative down in Triple-A, and has always profiled more like a backup anyway. The next man up would be Riley Adams, who’s in the midst of a breakout year that’s taken him to Double-A, but he has plenty of hurdles to clear.

It’s far too early to give up on Jansen, but it’s also impossible to feel quite as confident in him after such a rough first half.

Vladimir Guerrero Jr. is ready, but he’s still got some learning to do

When the baseball world was clamouring to see Vladdy in the major leagues, the refrain continued to be that he was “ready” for the highest level. That looks accurate, as he’s held up offensively with some pretty impressive moments.

Besides one stretch in the wake of his first pair of MLB home runs, Guerrero Jr. hasn’t been dominant, though. He has looked like a 20-year-old at times and the otherworldly plate discipline we saw in the minors has come and gone.

Vladdy is going to be an outstanding hitter, it just might take a little more time than initially projected.

Cavan Biggio isn’t a mirage

When Biggio broke out at Double-A last season it was hard to know what to make of his gaudy numbers. The rest of his minor-league career wasn’t particularly impressive and at 23, he was a little old for the level. While he was mentioned in the same breath as Guerrero Jr. and Bo Bichette, there seemed to be a pretty good chance he was “just a guy.”

Biggio came out of the gates raking at Triple-A and he hasn’t disappointed with the Blue Jays. The defensively versatile rookie has an intriguing offensive profile thanks to his sky-high walk rate and above-average power.

The 24-year-old is also getting a lot of credit for his baseball instincts and leadership ability and has the makings of a glue guy for the Blue Jays down the line.

Veteran stopgaps don’t guarantee stability

Because of a litany of pitching issues, the Blue Jays have been forced to stop the bleeding with guys like Clayton Richard and Edwin Jackson. Freddy Galvis and Matt Shoemaker also fit into this category and the group hasn’t exactly stabilized the team as the front office might have hoped.

Galvis has been an everyday presence, but Jackson was an unadulterated disaster, Richard has struggled and dealt with injury, and Shoemaker was briefly spectacular, but left a glaring hole.

The idea of stopgap veterans is that they’re supposed to have higher floors and a lower range of outcomes, but they can also have an increased vulnerability to injury and decline.

The J.A. Happ deal is looking worse and worse

At the time, the Happ deal looked uninspiring, as the Blue Jays seemed to prioritize high-floor MLB-ready players as opposed to shooting for upside. It looks worse now as neither Brandon Drury nor Billy McKinney seem like long-term contributors.

Drury’s versatility hasn’t gone away, but his bat has been dismal over the last couple of years and he’s not a good enough defender at any position to be an offensive liability.

McKinney has the combination of below-average bat and below-average defence that has him projected as almost an exactly replacement-level player going forward.

This is not the return you want to wind up with for a playoff-rotation-calibre starter.

2016 Aaron Sanchez is gone forever

At a certain point the dream had to die.

Sanchez had two injury-riddled seasons in 2017 and 2018 and coming into 2019 there was a thought that if he somehow overcame his ailments he could still be an above-average starter. Despite a couple of early exits, he’s generally been able to gut it out, but the results aren’t there.

Sanchez’s strikeout rate is extremely low by 2019 standards, his walk rate is a huge problem and he’s getting groundballs at a clip that’s good, not elite. The movement on his stuff, particularly his curveball, is still impressive, but he simply can’t command it.

His inconsistency has torpedoed his trade value, and it looks like he might be better served as a reliever if he doesn’t turn this around soon.

Blue Jays are not afraid to experiment

In a season devoid of competitive prospects, there’s no harm in getting weird, and the Blue Jays have most certainly gotten weird. Biggio and Drury have played everywhere, Teoscar Hernandez has moved to centre and Gurriel Jr. has changed from an infielder to an outfielder. Charlie Montoyo has even mused about giving Sogard some run in the outfield.

The Blue Jays’ team defence hasn’t been good, but it’s undoubtedly been interesting. Because many of the club’s regulars profile more like utility guys going forward, defensive versatility is the name of the game.

It’s all understandable, but nothing makes a team unwatchable like sloppy defence, and despite a flurry of Gurriel Jr. outfield assists, this team has been disjointed in the field at times.

Marcus Stroman’s down year in 2018 was a fluke

After two straight 200-inning seasons, Stroman had himself a bumpy 2018 in which he had shoulder issues and saw his ERA balloon to 5.54. The peripherals all suggested that he’d been snakebitten, though, and he looked like a great bounce-back candidate.

The right-hander has delivered on those expectations in the first half with a sterling 3.04 ERA, and although his underlying numbers don’t match that sparkling number, he’s in demand come deadline season. Having their biggest star return to form just so they can deal him isn’t a glamorous outcome for the Blue Jays, but that’s . where they’re at right now.

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