Advertisement

What do divisional-round losers need to bring them success in fantasy and reality?

matt harmon
Fantasy analyst
·12 min read

After looking at what it will take to bring each of the wild-card losers and non-playoff teams to success in 2025, let's examine the future of the teams who didn't advance beyond the divisional round of the NFL playoffs.

For the second straight season, the Ravens entered the postseason with legitimate claims to being the best and most well-rounded operation. And yet, for the second time in as many years, they’ll exit the postseason short of the Super Bowl with a lingering taste of bitterness.

The nature of this particular loss to the Bills, amid avoidable mistakes and the fact they didn’t reach the conference championship on the back of the season Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry and the entire offense just enjoyed, is enough to haunt any club.

I don’t know how to exorcise the demons of self-inflicted wounds and postseason shortcomings that have hung around this team for too long now.

What I can say with a relative degree of confidence is that the best course of action for Baltimore is to plan on bringing this whole band back and attempt another run at a Super Bowl with largely the same cast on offense. You don’t and can’t win the big one ... until you do or, ultimately, don’t. It’s the case for Jackson and the Ravens, just as it was for everyone before them. If they are going to fall on the positive side of history next season, it will be with many of the same offensive pieces in place.

Make no mistake: The supporting cast around Jackson was more than good enough to win the Super Bowl this season. Henry is obviously a legendary talent at the running back position and you’ll just have to hope he has another massive season in his 31-year-old body. History says it’s a risk, but Henry has balked at history many times before. Zay Flowers, who never played in the postseason due to injury, and Rashod Bateman proved to be a strong wide receiver duo for Baltimore this season and are both under manageable contracts. With Nelson Agholor, Tylan Wallace and a handful of others up for free agency, they will require an influx of depth. Tight end is a strength, even if Mark Andrews is coming off a performance from hell. Frankly, you could argue beyond what we saw in the divisional-round loss that Isaiah Likely is ready for a promotion in that room.

There are a couple of significant areas to watch, however. Offensive coordinator Todd Monken has been a home run hire for this team. He’s taken head coaching interviews already and will likely get more now that the Ravens are out of the postseason. My guess is that Monken will get passed over for some of the younger offensive minds like Ben Johnson, Joe Brady and Liam Coen in this cycle. That may not be fair, but the Ravens stand to benefit from that possible age bias against Monken. He would be a significant loss in both the run and pass game design.

The other spot that could face a shakeup is on the offensive line. Left tackle Ronnie Stanley and guard Patrick Mekari are both up for free agency. The line was an area of concern in the offseason, but that unit was a strength by the end of the year. Stanley, in particular, turned in a marvelous season, turning back the clock to his dominant pre-2020 form before injuries threw off his career. With that health history and turning 31 this offseason, Stanley won’t be the cleanest free agent in the world. However, top-end tackles don’t hit the market often, so he could end up getting a big bag elsewhere if Baltimore doesn’t hit him with the franchise tag — they have just over $17 million in cap space.

As long as Monken is back as the play-caller and the offensive line talent doesn’t atrophy, this will be an ecosystem to target in fantasy drafts next season. Henry will be among the top-five ranked backs. Flowers, Bateman and Likely are still growing talents. Of course, Jackson is a strong bet to run back his QB1 overall season. Postseason demons continue to haunt the halls of Baltimore, but they are still one of the right answers in both fantasy land and when we are settling on top contenders in the AFC next season.

The overall goal for Los Angeles this offseason is to simply “keep building.” Despite having a veteran quarterback who will take some time to decide his future in the coming weeks, this is a young and hungry team that should view itself on the upswing after two consecutive successful drafts. However, I wanted to give a more specific path the Rams must take this offseason and that’s to add elements of explosiveness on the offense.

As long as Matthew Stafford is back, the Rams will be one of the best offenses in the league. They could launch to the top of the NFC with a few tweaks at the skill position spots.

Stafford threw 29.5% of his passes to “open” receivers against the Eagles, per Next Gen Stats. That was his second-lowest rate in a game this season. He completed 15 of his 31 passes to receivers with less than three yards of separation for 260 yards, the third-most yards by any quarterback in a game this season, and both of his touchdowns.

The Rams have one of the premier wide receivers in the game in Puka Nacua. The young wideout left some plays on the field as the Rams struggled to play in the wintery conditions in the second half, but his resume as a top wideout is rock-solid. That stands in stark contrast to the rest of the supporting cast, which has become shaky.

Cooper Kupp faded down the stretch and was not a featured piece after being dangled as a trade candidate at the deadline in November. Tyler Higbee was a bigger part of the game plan for Los Angeles in the postseason. If I had to guess, Kupp is playing elsewhere in 2025. Wideouts Demarcus Robinson and Tutu Atwell are both set to hit free agency.

You don’t even have to tell me the names on the back of the jerseys and I can tell you I’ll be interested in drafting players from a remade Rams wide receiver corps in fantasy football.

If we’re looking for a specific type, Sean McVay’s offense could launch to new heights by a wideout who brings a speed element to the table and is a consistent man-coverage-beater on the perimeter. At the same time, the Rams have also found the most sustained success by targeting “grinder” types at the position who bring a physical edge after the catch and in the run-blocking phase. McVay has wandered between different offensive identities — this is a compliment — under his watch as the head coach. Who they bring in at wide receiver will be a tell in where they want to go next.

Beyond Nacua and Kyren Williams, who added more explosive plays in the postseason than in the regular season, we could be looking at something of a blank slate for the players in Stafford and McVay’s orbit next season. That’s an exciting proposition when considering rankings for 2025.

Not much stings more for an NFL franchise than paying the cost of success despite falling short of its goals. Until now, the Lions managed to avoid the toll of a brain drain that sets in for great organizations. This time around, Detroit is reportedly about to lose one coordinator and likely will see the other go.

ESPN’s Adam Schefter has been among the loudest voices, letting the world know that Detroit will lose both Aaron Glenn and Ben Johnson, so much so that he posted a list of internal candidates likely to assume both jobs.

To his credit, Dan Campbell didn’t shy away from that potential reality. It’s a big reason why he gave the “might never get back” speech after last year’s NFC Championship Game loss and couldn’t hold back tears after fulfilling his own prophecy this season.

After being the one to hire Glenn and elevate Johnson, I trust Campbell as a coaching talent evaluator. The Lions have plenty of strong coaches on their roster, although we should expect a handful on both sides of the ball to follow Johnson and/or Glenn in pursuit of moves up the food chain. More losses will come.

You need only look back at the 2023 Eagles for a cautionary tale about how the on-paper promotion path isn’t always clean. Philadelphia elevated quarterbacks coach Brian Johnson to assume Shane Steichen’s spot after he left for the big chair in Indianapolis. The goal was to keep a successful system intact, but Johnson never showed an ability to push the buttons like Steichen could, and the offense withered down the stretch.

There is a real risk that the same could happen for the Lions with Ben Johnson finalizing a deal with the Bears. The design of the offense will likely stay the same, but that doesn’t mean it will be expressed in an identical fashion on the field. There are some hyper-specific talents on this Lions offense that need the right roles to reach their maximum potential. Few have been better at crafting those positions than Johnson in the last few seasons.

You can expect to hear the loss of Johnson discussed quite often at every level of fantasy football analysis this offseason. Don’t expect that to turn into any level of ADP discount on some of the Lions’ players. It just never ends up working that way. Right or wrong, the previous year's point totals end up dictating future draft rankings first and foremost, with offseason discussion about coaching changes and player evaluations checking in much further down the list.

There is more than enough firepower and stars on the Lions’ offensive roster to keep this as a top-five unit, even with Johnson moving on. However, any time we speak in guarantees about a top-level unit continuing to roll on without disruption in the face of massive change, especially when said offense doesn’t have one of the top-three quarterbacks in place, we’re usually proven to be far too overconfident. And that’s what makes this missed chance all the more painful for Detroit.

From a results-based standpoint, you’d probably categorize this season as a success for the Texans based on how far they took it. However, reaching the divisional round of the playoffs for the second-straight year should not stop Houston from staring down the serious flaws they showed on offense this season.

Those problems were on full display against the Chiefs in the divisional round.

Kansas City pressured C.J. Stroud on a whopping 51.2% of his dropbacks on Saturday and brought him down for eight sacks. How the Texans deal with pressure and the overall pass-blocking plan has been nothing short of a mess for the entire 2024 season. The offensive line was meant to be a strength of the team, but due to player regression and coaching, it was an anvil that held the team back. The running game was productive in the playoffs, but this team ranked 31st in success rate on the ground in games with Joe Mixon in 2024. You can chalk that up to coaching and talent issues up front, as well.

Next Gen Stats also notes that Chiefs’ star corner Trent McDuffie covered Nico Collins on 22 of his 32 routes (68.8%). McDuffie ceded just two catches for 42 yards, allowing an average target separation of one-yard on his four looks. Kansas City operated with little to no fear of the non-Collins pass-catchers and given the names on the depth chart, you can’t blame them.

After suffering another major injury in the final weeks of the regular season, Tank Dell — who was never right this season — is unlikely to be available for a large chunk of, if at all for the 2025 campaign. Fellow Texans receiver Stefon Diggs is also recovering from an ACL tear at age 31 and is a free agent.

The Texans have an elite No. 1 alpha in Collins, but the rest of the receiver room needs a complete makeover. Perhaps Diggs can be brought back on a cost-friendly deal, but the depth needs refurbishing. The film showed guys like Xavier Hutchinson and John Metchie III are not needle-movers when called upon.

Talent additions on the line and at pass catcher won’t be enough. Offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik got a little overrated after the 2023 season on the back of Stroud’s dynamic rookie season while essentially running the Shanahan offense's greatest hits. When the offense needed to evolve in 2024 after the Diggs trade, the shine quickly began to wear off. Consistent schematic problems and mistakes along the offensive line continued to erode what should have been a quality attack. Slowik still has the makings of a promising coordinator, but this offseason needs to be a moment of growth for him.

The Texans have many of the most essential pieces in place for a Super Bowl run. They have a franchise quarterback, a strong head coach, pass rushers and perimeter cornerbacks. Most teams are envious of that collection. They need to win on the margins of the roster.

Stroud’s 2024 fantasy ADP was always far too rich, but the crumbling environment around him plummeted the second-year passer to a QB18 finish. Individually, he’s far better than that. He remains the right type of point guard to lead a highly successful offense and with the right receiving talent, I fully believe he’s capable of leading a high-flying attack with multiple startable wideouts. In order for that to happen, the roster Houston enters the coming season with cannot resemble the one that shared the field for most of 2024, no matter how far they made it in the postseason.