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Week 3 Fantasy Power Rankings: Steelers, Rams in spotlight with anticipated debuts

Michael Salfino

Let’s put a fantasy spin on the Week 3 action by ranking the games in expected order of point-producing relevance using the over/under totals from Las Vegas, specifically as reflected on Thursday at VegasInsider.com.

Note: Dollar values in parentheses denote a player's current week price in the Yahoo Daily Fantasy game. It is displayed only for the sake of reference.

The Fab Four

1. Steelers at Rams, 1:00 (all times EST), O/U 48: The return of LeVeon Bell ($35 in Yahoo DFS this week) and likely debut of Todd Gurley ($25) are the stories here. Neither is an ideal play in their first action of the season. The Rams run defense sure seems overrated off getting blasted by the Redskins last week. It’s hard to get a feel for the Rams passing game and how targets are distributed, but Nick Foles is a sneaky good play against a porous Pittsburgh secondary. Ben Roethlisberger ($43): No. 1 fantasy QB? All he ever needed was volume, which he’s getting courtesy of his lousy defense that will remain this way.

[Yahoo Daily Fantasy Football: Enter our $1 Million Week 3 contest]

 2. Chiefs at Packers, Monday, 8:30, O/U 48:  Obviously you want to take James Starks ($12) for a spin given that Eddie Lacy ($33) is unlikely to play but that’s dangerous because Lacy seems to really want to play this week. Davante Adams ($20) is gimpy with an ankle injury, too. I’d be trading for Adams now as his value has cratered and there seems to be little rational basis for it. Jeremy Maclin ($23) is being hurt by Alex Smith’s ($33) unwillingness to throw the ball downfield. Smith is averaging 3.68 average air yards per completion. Roethlisberger leads the NFL at 11.15.

 3. Jaguars at Patriots, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 48: So I guess Vegas is figuring this game goes 40-8 in favor of New England? I think there will be closer to 60 total points in this game. The Patriots are bottom 10 in most key defensive categories, including yards and points allowed. Expect big days from Allen Robinson ($22), who really busted out last week just when his owners were panicking, and maybe even Allen Hurns ($16). The big question for the Patriots is going to be touch percentage in the backfield. If Dion Lewis ($24) swamps LeGarrette Blount ($22) again, then Blount is droppable and Lewis is a top 12 PPR back.

 4. Eagles at Jets, Sunday, 1:00, O/V 47.5: And just when you’ve digested that brutal Alex Smith air-yards per completion stats above, I tell you that Sam Bradford ($35) is even worse at just 3.25. The median for QBs so far in 2015 is 6.16. Will Darrelle Revis (groin) play? If he’s out, play Jordan Matthews with confidence. Ryan Mathews ($16) may start for DeMarco Murray (hamstring) and I predict he’ll perform much better than Murray ($35) last week and gain at least negative-five yards. The trouble in Philly with the running game is that there is no read-option threat now that the NFL has declared open season on QBs after the fake. So now they have a slow-developing, shotgun running game with no real deceptive element. Scott Pianowski and I talked about this at length on our Breakfast Table Podcast.

The Best of the Rest

 5. Saints at Panthers, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 45: Cam Newton ($36) is on pace for almost 200 rushes. I have no idea if Drew Brees ($39) will play but when he’s healthy, he’s still a Top 5 QB for me because of volume. A couple of years ago, Philip Rivers was done. Last year, fantasy owners wanted to hurl Tom Brady into the sun for being too old and rag armed. Last week, Peyton Manning was finished. I was wrong about Rivers but then I learned. Why is no one learning? Is it too much fun to bury great players alive? Get Brees cheaply now, even if he’s out. Ditto with Brandin Cooks ($21), too, who is the other volume play (especially if he’s out this week with an ankle injury).

[Week 3 rankings: Quarterback | Running Back | Receiver | Flex | All Positions]

 6. Colts and Titans, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 45:  The AFC South comes to the Colts rescue again. Marcus Mariota ($34) is being sacked on nearly 17% of his pass attempts. Play the Colts defense this week, even on the road. Andrew Luck ($43) and the Colts will rebound offensively. Except for Grandpa Andre Johnson ($22). Donte Moncrief ($19) is a top 15 wideout for the rest of the year, meaning his range is WR10 to WR20.

7. Falcons at Cowboy, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 45: Brandon Weeden ($20) is so bad. Don’t start any Cowboys. Sneak Christine Michael on to your roster Sunday morning if you have a slot because he could be the starting back come Wednesday. If he’s not, you can cut bait. Note Tevin Coleman is out, meaning smallish and slowish Devonta Freeman ($18) will get touches. Snore.

8. Chargers at Vikings, Sunday 1:00, O/U 44.5: The Chargers are terrible against the pass but the Vikings don’t like to attack that way. The Vikings are ghastly vs. the run. I predict an obvious breakout by Melvin Gordon ($22) even though last week it was pretty obvious to me with three runs of 20-plus yards, or as many as Danny Woodhead ($18) has in his career.

9. Bengals at Ravens, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 44.5: The Ravens can’t fall to 0-3. Baltimore has the biggest home-field advantage in football (winning percentage at home minus winning percentage on the road). This game comes at a bad time for Jeremy Hill ($28) owners and the schedule for the Bengals the next few weeks is similarly tough. But we will get to see if Andy Dalton ($33) and the Bengals' suddenly explosive passing game are for real.

10. Broncos at Lions, Sunday, 8:30, O/U 44.5: C.J. Anderson ($28) has to bust out here or his owners can reasonably panic. Anderson declared himself healthy and it’s a good matchup. Will the Broncos scrap the Kubiak/Elway offense and play the Peyton Manning ($38) offense like last week when it salvaged the game? Calvin Johnson ($31) looks like he’s no longer a dominant player. Are the power boosters forever gone? I would bench all other Lions.

11. Bears at Seahawks, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 43.5: There is data that Russell Wilson ($43) underperforms when Seattle is a heavy favorite but that was with a different team and with different records heading into the game. I predict Wilson has the best day of all the QBs on Sunday. I’d even confidently play overrated Jimmy Graham ($27) this week, off the complaining, given that this Chicago defense is so bad. I wouldn’t want to play any Bears in this game, not even Matt Forte ($35). Chicago scores no more than 10 points.

12. Bills at Dolphins, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 43: Lamar Miller ($29) is nursing a bad ankle. Miami can obviously be run on so I can see owners playing both LeSean McCoy ($29) and Karlos Williams ($15) in this game, with Williams looking dynamic as maybe the best handcuff in the game (get other team’s handcuffs, people). It’s hard to sit Ryan Tannehill ($37) and the Miami receivers given the outburst by Tom Brady ($46) against the Bills last week.

13. 49ers at Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05, O/U 43: Play your Cardinals aggressively. It would be nice if Bruce Arians liked touchdowns enough to play David Johnson ($22) but he’ll start to think the lack of touches is the reason why Johnson’s touches are so loud. John Brown ($19) owners need him to live up to the hype on the stat sheet. I think Carlos Hyde ($30) ambushed the Vikings with a surprise running scheme (zone blocking) and now there is film on that and it’s tougher. This is a big game for Hyde owners.

The Dead Zone

 

14. Raiders at Browns, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 42.5: The only thing to watch for in this game is whether Armari Cooper ($21) is a true elite receiver given he’ll be matched up against an A-minus corner in Joe Haden.

15. Buccaneers at Texans, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 40.5: You want to play the Texans defense given that Jameis Winston ($33) gets sacked about 13% of the time and J.J. Watt seems overdue for a touchdown. Will Mike Evans ($28) do anything? Does he even have a chemistry at all with Winston? We need answers quickly.