Week 16 Fantasy Flames: Powell set to shine against Pats

Every week the Noise highlights 13 under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 16 Flames in the comments section below.

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Eli Manning, NYG, QB (40 percent started, $26 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Phi
Several times this season it seems Eli accepted his older brother’s offer of Sunday vegging and nachos. A middling QB2 on a fantasy points per game basis, he’s rarely packed statistical spice. Though he’s logged multiple touchdowns numerous times, his three 20-plus point performances since Week 4 has left much to be desired. His unsightly 6.8 yards per attempt and 89.3 passer rating are down considerably from 2015. His name value explains the 83-percent ownership in Yahoo leagues, but, in production terms, he’s more aligned with minimally rostered Trevor Siemian than position elites. However, when push comes to shove, Younger Manning is bound to deliver. The Giants’ Thursday opponent, Philadelphia, is crumbling defensively, particularly defending the pass. Since Week 9, thanks to Nolan Carroll’s dreadful execution (95.2 passer rating allowed), have yielded 8.5 yards per attempt, 268.7 pass yards and 2.0 pass touchdowns per game. As a result, they’ve surrendered the fourth-most fantasy points to signal-callers during that span. With an inconsistent ground game and Odell Beckham to chuck the rock to, Eli could match the 257-4-2 line accomplished versus Philly earlier this year. Yes, TNF games typically induce heavy imbibing (#TequilaThursday), but the Giants passer could storm your team out of the gate. Have faith.

Fearless Forecast: 245 passing yards, 3 passing touchdowns, 1 turnover, 20.8 fantasy points

Bilal Powell, NYJ, RB (46 percent started, $18)
Matchup: at NE
Moments prior to last Saturday’s Dolphins/Jets showdown skittish owners worried about Matt Forte’s activation rashly pulled Powell from their lineups, despite my insistence to stay the course. Fumble. Turning the ‘Fins into sushi, he recorded one of the best PPR lines by any running back this season. He dodged tacklers, gained tough yards between the hashmarks and was nearly unstoppable as a check-down/screen receiver. On 64 snaps and 27 touches (11 receptions), he racked 162 combined yards, his second-consecutive monster game. He didn’t sweeten the evening with a touchdown, but only greedy Scrooges scoffed at the final output. Powell, a legitimate three-down leviathan, is one of the most underrated backs in the league. He ranks top-five in juke rate and top-10 in breakaway percentage at the position. If Todd Bowles and Chan Gailey are conscious, they continue to feed the rising star over a rapidly aging Forte. Point blank, the second-fiddle possesses more pizzazz. Penetrating New England’s front is a can of worms – the Pats have given up only 3.6 yards per carry – but their flexibility in short-field coverage (6.7 receptions per game to RBs) plays perfectly into Powell’s hands. In a contest New York is bound to be buried (NE is favored by 16.5), Powell goes off for the third straight week.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 59 rushing yards, 7 receptions, 66 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 22.0 fantasy points

Ty Montgomery, GB, RB/WR (29 percent started, $20)
Matchup: vs. Min
When Eddie Lacy succumbed to injury in Week 6, the Packers wandered aimlessly searching for a suitable replacement. James Starks filled the void rather unsuccessfully, Montgomery, at the time, offered little consistency and Christine Michael was plucked off the street in an act of desperation. But the former Misfit Toy has not only found a home, he’s suddenly morphed into Ahman Green circa ’03. He showed signs of a breakout Week 15 vs. stingy Seattle (4.6 yards per carry, 86 total yards, TD), however, it was his bashing of the Bears in snot-freezing conditions that unleashed the beast. In a ridiculous performance, the converted wide receiver was a playoff hero. He bulled through arm tackles, exhibited plus elusiveness and contributed in the pass game. His final tally (18-163-2) had tears of unfiltered joy running down owner cheeks. He also posted a not-of-this-world 10.1 YAC and forced seven missed tackles. Merry bleepin’ Christmas; Sincerely, The Gummy Bears. This week, the ascending back dances with another intradivisional foe, the Minnesota Vikings. Once feared in the trenches, the Vikes have wielded a dull axe in recent weeks. Ranking middle of the pack vs. opposing RBs over their past seven games, they’ve surrendered 4.2 yards per carry, 128.7 total yards per game and five total touchdowns. Knowing defenses have to respect Aaron Rodgers, Montgomery should face plentiful light boxes, situations he’s averaged over 7.0 yards per carry against. Don’t worry about Starks’ return. Start Monty. Hoist the hardware.

Fearless Forecast: 15 carries, 77 rushing yards, 3 receptions, 14 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.6 fantasy points

Cameron Meredith, Chi, WR (8 percent started, $14)
Matchup: vs. Was
Recall the last time Meredith was mentioned in this space, he was coming off consecutive 110-plus yard tallies. Lusted after as though he were a Hatchimal, the in-demand receiver was labeled “must-start material.” Unfortunately, though, he laid a gigantic egg accounting for just one catch in Green Bay. An ill-prepared Matt Barkley, who entered that game after Brian Hoyer fractured his arm early, destroyed the receiver’s value. Since then, however, the duo has gradually established an inseparable relationship. Over the past three weeks, Barkley has thrown in Meredith’s general direction 24 times connecting 18 times for 243 yards and a touchdown. His subsequent 38 accumulated fantasy points over that stretch ranks No. 9 at the position. Critics will argue Alshon Jeffery’s return diminishes No. 81’s value, but the opposite is true. The former Pro Bowler’s presence means Meredith will often draw more favorable coverage, in this case Bashaud Breeland (9.7 fantasy points per game allowed) over Josh Norman (44.3 passer rating). If indeed the case and knowing Washington, as a team, have given up 12 double-digit (in fantasy points) wide receiver performances this year, it’s conceivable Meredith flirts with another 100 yards. The Bears’ shortcomings on defense only increase that probability.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 83 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.8 fantasy points

Malcolm Mitchell, NE, WR (16 percent started, $24)
Matchup: vs. NYJ
Denver is where wide receiver production goes to die. A statistical blackhole, the Broncos would probably hold vintage Randy Moss in check. Aqib Talib and Chris Harris are that suffocating. Fantasy is a reactive eSport, one that inflates/deflates player perception weekly. Fail to move the meter and untrustworthy feelings creep in. That perception explains why many, stupidly, will give Mitchell the stiff arm when setting championship lineups. Don’t be that numbskull. Prior to his run-in with the Broncos, the rookie was one of the hottest commodities in the virtual game. His oven mitts and clean routes inside the red zone transformed him into Tom Brady’s Gronk replacement. Weeks 11-14 he amassed the ninth-most valuable line among WRs totaling 21 receptions, 263 yards and four touchdowns, some of that production coming Week 12 against New York (5-42-2). In the rematch, similar handiwork should be expected. The Jets, presumably thinking about beach vacations and margaritas, are completely checked out defensively. When a cold-off-the-bench Matt Moore, who hadn’t started a game since 2012, torches you for four touchdowns that sums up your impotence. Whether he faces off with Darrelle Revis (112.5 passer rating, 11.7 fantasy points per game allowed) or Justin Burris, Mitchell will strut his stuff in the end zone, possibly multiple times.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 61 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.6 fantasy points

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WEEK 16 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10 percent started)

Justin Forsett, Den, RB (3 percent started, $16)
Matchup: at KC
In the time it takes Santa to devour a plate of cookies, Forsett rendered Devontae Booker virtually useless. Last week, in another miserable Denver effort offensively, the elder rusher out-snapped (34-to-28), out-touched (14-to-8) and outproduced (53-to-19 total yards) his younger complement. Irrefutably, the Broncos are a complete mess with the ball and, at 8-6, have two hooves in the IKEA Swedish meatball factory. The line couldn’t open a hole for an elf and Siemian has often folded under pressure. The solution? Overcome those inadequacies by playing New England ball — use short passes as an extension of the run. If the light in the attic flips on for Gary Kubiak and he implements such a scheme, Forsett, a superior receiver compared to the rookie, stands to benefit. Kansas City’s defense, without premier linebacker Derrick Johnson, has conceded five or more RB receptions in a game seven times. It’s also allowed a very favorable 104.8 rushing yards per game and 4.4 yards per carry to rushers on the year. Booker played decently in the rivals’ first matchup compiling 101 yards on 25 touches. However, the second time around, it’s highly likely Forsett nets roughly 16-18 touches. If that rings true, he’s a FLEXY sexy option in 12-team and deeper formats, especially PPR. Gamble.

Fearless Forecast: 13 carries, 50 rushing yards, 5 receptions, 29 receiving yard, 1 touchdown, 16.4 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 16 FLAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader record: 32-72

Noise season record: 64-102 (Week 15: 6-6; W: Bilal Powell, Robby Anderson, Mike Gillislee, Alshon Jeffery, Miami D/ST, Pierre Garcon, ; L: Trevor Siemian, Philip Rivers, Kenneth Dixon, Jermaine Gresham, Marqise Lee, Tevin Coleman)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).