Week 15 fantasy preview: Buccaneers-Cowboys could lack fireworks

By Michael Salfino, Special to Yahoo Sports

Let’s preview this week’s NFL action by first focusing on the games that are expected to produce the most real and fantasy points before I go around the league to highlight the key players we should be watching and why. An important note every week: check the player’s status. There is so much injury uncertainty and Friday’s practice, which occurs after this is posted, is key.

Saints at Cardinals (O/U: 50.5): Drew Brees ($37) has crushed his owners the last two weeks and Carson Palmer ($34) has done the same all year, basically. I was so wrong about Palmer, who seems finished even though his pass protection has been terrible and Bruce Arians has done him a disservice by not max protecting more often, subjecting him to too much punishment. I’d be surprised if this game reached this total. But I’d definitely play Brees, even on the road here (but in friendly conditions), over Palmer.

[Join the $90K Baller for Week 15 | Tips for your Daily lineup]

Larry Fitzgerald ($31) has faded mightily down the stretch. Since Week 5, Fitz has zero touchdowns and just one game over 80 receiving yards. Brandin Cooks ($26) is a fringe starter if Michael Thomas ($26) is out given that Cooks would then have to face Patrick Peterson more exclusively. Cooks has a vital role in the Saints offense, taking the top off the defense, but that’s not a high-leverage one for us because it makes him low volume. Cooks is basically DeSean Jackson now. Mark Ingram ($19) is having a great year on paper but is extremely volatile since he’s still inexplicably in about an even timeshare with Tim Hightower ($14).

49ers at Falcons (O/U: 51.5): It sure sounds like Julio Jones ($37) is going to be out again. Why push him here? That would make Taylor Gabriel ($20) a playable, low-volume, top 20-30 receiver. Matt Ryan ($40) is so efficient this year that he doesn’t even need Jones to be productive. However, it limits his upside. But the floor, in seasonal, is still high. Start Tevin Coleman ($20), who has nine TDs on 110 touches. He’s a dynamic receiver too (15.3 yards per catch). But Devonta Freeman ($36) should be a top play despite the horrendous Week 14.

Did Carlos Hyde ($26) owners make it this far? Probably not. But sure, he’s playable in a zeroRB kind of way. Forget Colin Kaepernick ($35) now. It’s the playoffs. You don’t need to win with your QB but you don’t want to lose with him; this means the floor is the primary consideration.

[Week 15 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

Buccaneers at Cowboys (O/U: 46): I wrote this week at The Wall Street Journal how the Bucs are on pace to be the most improved defense from the first-to-second half of the season in the 16-game era that began in 1978. They’re allowing under 13 points per game since their eighth game.

The Cowboys are struggling on offense now. Dak Prescott ($33) looks like a rookie — you can’t play him here. Dallas is 2-for-24 on third downs the past two games. I think you have to play Dez Bryant ($28) in seasonal. Jameis Winston ($33) was terrible last week and Mike Evans ($38) is not winning his owners any money. I see this game as low-scoring and would generally avoid.

NOTEBOOK

-Eli Manning ($30) is bad now. The yardage hasn’t been there, failing to top 257 yards since Week 6 and cracking 200 yards just three times in the period. But he somehow has 15 TD passes the past six games. That’s the Odell Beckham Jr. ($35) effect.

-The Eagles’ pass defense is awful (28th in yards allowed per pass play). If you are stuck at QB in a bad week, Joe Flacco ($28) is probably on the waiver wire and gets volume and should finish around 300 yards, a total he’s topped in each of the last two weeks, with six touchdowns since Week 12. And Mike Wallace ($21) is also a sneaky play. Wallace is going to finish with about 1,100 receiving yards.

-The extreme cold in the forecast for the Packers in Chicago is bad news for Aaron Rodgers ($37), according to former NFL team doctor David Chao.

-The depth of target of Stefon Diggs ($23) has cratered — he currently ranks 76th according to the NFL. I thought he was going to be Julio Jones and that looked great for a few weeks. But having no vertical aspect to his game and thus makes it too difficult to find the end zone (2 TDs on 78 catches).

-Don’t overreact to Andrew Luck ($33) vs. the Vikings. That’s a tier-tiebreaker, period. You don’t, for example, play Flacco ahead of Luck.

-Travis Kelce ($24) has four straight 100-yard games, but no touchdowns in the period. No tight end since the 1970 AFL-NFL merger has had five. The world and crappy Alex Smith ($26) conspire to keep Kelce from full-blown fantasy nirvana.

-Allen Robinson ($15) vs. DeAndre Hopkins ($17) are playing in the same game and starring this year in “The Death of ZeroRB.” Look, here’s the deal: As I always say, zeroRB is just the usual result from a projection system that, ballpark, gives running backs 12 games and wide receivers 14 (due to historic injury risk/projection variance). Even scaled to 12 games, David Johnson’s projection was ahead of all but three wide receivers this August (and definitely ahead of Jones for me). I do not agree that zeroRB is invalidated this year as this is just expected variance. To be clear, you should still project greater risk with running backs and thus lean toward drafting wide receivers in the early rounds.

-Expect a very big game from LeGarrette Blount ($28) vs. the Broncos, who can be run on. Denver is 29th in rushing yards allowed and 19th in average yards per rush. Blount is eighth in fantasy points per game among non-QBs in standard, ahead of Antonio Brown ($36).

-Tyrell Williams ($23) has been indistinguishable from Amari Cooper (and more consistent than him). Yet I get start/sit questions about Williams all the time like he’s a scrub.

-Kenneth Farrow ($12) was beaten badly in pass protection, resulting in a Philip Rivers ($32) fumble, so you must project the Chargers to run frequently/play with a lead if you start him.

-I can’t play A.J. Green ($31) after he was carted off two weeks ago. He needs a show-me week and it’s Week 15.