Week 15 Fantasy Over/Under: Quarterback conundrums galore

With the fantasy playoffs on the horizon, this week’s OVER/UNDER piece takes on a slightly different personality. Including is a DFS snapshot for the upcoming week and BOLD predictions for what players boom/bust during the most important time of the fantasy football year.

Nerves are on high this week as fantasy Super Bowl berths are on the line. What largely cherished RB, WR or TE, started in 50 percent or more of Yahoo leagues, will leave owners penniless in Week 15?

Dalton – DOUG MARTIN. He’s been given a ton of touches and scored in his last two games since returning, but Martin’s YPC sits at an ugly 3.0 on the season, and the Bucs are touchdown underdogs Sunday against a Cowboys team that’s allowed the fourth-fewest fantasy points to running backs. It’s certainly tough to sit Martin given his usage, but with his inefficiency and this matchup, there’s a good chance he really disappoints his owners in Week 15.

Brandon – DELANIE WALKER. He offered only a couple cents to owners last week (two catches, 30 yards), and in the expected sub-20 degree temperatures in KC on Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if he leaves his owners wanting once again. I mentioned the weather as a factor, but the biggest concern is a Chiefs defense that has not allowed a tight end to reach 10-plus fantasy points in their last 39 regular-season games. That is a streak that should not be taken lightly.

Andy – BEN ROETHLISBERGER. Too obvious? Perhaps. But he’s 75 percent started as of this writing, and it simply isn’t deserved. He’s on the road at Cincy in Week 15, and, as we’ve discussed a time or two, his road numbers over the past three seasons are ugly. He’s basically Dan Marino at home, Dan Orlovsky on the road. (OK, maybe not that bad. But it ain’t good.)

Scott – I get the appeal of JULIAN EDELMAN most weeks, he’s a high-floor PPR option and tied to a Hall of Fame (and perhaps MVP) quarterback. But Edelman doesn’t have a big touchdown profile (just two spikes this year) and now he faces the deepest cornerback collection, by far, in the NFL (hello, Denver). This looks like a week where Edelman stalls around 45-55 yards, without a touchdown.

Brad – ANTONIO BROWN. Too bold, Cotton? Combine Big Ben’s road wimpery with a matchup against a defense, Cincinnati, that’s surrendered the third-fewest fantasy points to wide receivers and it’s not reckless to predict only modest production for the No. 1 ranked receiver in fantasy (FF: 5-67-0). Throw in his 4-39-0 stinker Week 2 versus Cincy and the 68.4 combined passer rating Dre Kirkpatrick and Pacman Jones have allowed and it’s even more believable.

Conversely, what largely overlooked asset, under 50 percent started in Yahoo leagues, will earn ‘hero’ status this weekend?

Brandon – BILAL POWELL. Congrats if you won Powell in your league’s waiver bidding war this week. Now be sure to plug him into your lineup. Yes, Matt Forte says that he wants to play, but he’s got old man knees and the Jets have no reason to appease him at this point. Powell, averaging 5.8 YPC and with 42 catches, is likely to push 20 touches again this week against Miami after his monster 34-touch, 187-yard, 2 TD performance last week in San Francisco. The Jets’s backfield put up 148 total yards at Miami in Week 9. In a leading role on Saturday, Powell has a good shot at another 100-plus yards and a score.

Andy – You guys, just park TAYLOR GABRIEL in your lineup. Please. He’s an unreasonably fast human, he’s reached the end-zone five times in his last six games, and he’s at home against the Niners in Week 15. San Francisco’s defense has been hilariously poor against the run, as everyone knows, but that unit hasn’t exactly had great success against the pass, either (26 TDs allowed). All healthy Falcons skill players need to be active this week.

Brad – KENNETH DIXON. His 3.5 ypc in New England masked an otherwise radiant performance. He routinely missed tackled, gained tough yards after contact and played a pivotal receiving role. I’ve always been enamored with his talents and it appears the Ravens have finally decided to make him the featured back. Against a flimsy Eagles D that’s coughed up nearly 100 rush yards per game and 4.3 yards per carry to RBs since Week 6, he could easily duplicate his efforts in Foxboro (FF: 85 total yards, TD).

Scott – TAYLOR GABRIEL and ROBBY ANDERSON jump out. The Falcons don’t force the ball to Gabriel but what they actually do is design specific touches for him that can turn into explosive plays. His touch count is a little misleading; when you consider the high impact of his work, every touch is like a touch and a half. San Francisco on the schedule? That’s a win. Anderson is a classic case of a backup quarterback trusting the JV connection on the field. Anderson had a big summer, he was fun in a half against the Colts (after Bryce Petty came in), and he was productive last week. What’s not to like?

Dalton – KENNETH FARROW. It’s unclear how good of a player the undrafted Farrow is, and there’s the risk of Ronnie Hillman stealing some touches, but he’s in line to be the lead back for San Diego with Melvin Gordon out. The Raiders have ceded 4.7 YPC (third-highest in the NFL) and the sixth-most fantasy points to running backs this season. This game has a total of 49.5 points, so Farrow looks like a sneaky start.

Donning the DFS cap, what commodity is terribly UNDERVALUED in Week 15?

Dalton – JEREMY HILL. He’s seen a big increase in touches since Giovani Bernard went down, including 13 targets over the past three games (as many as he had totaled previously all season). Hill has 29 touchdowns over 45 career games, and the Steelers have allowed the seventh-most fantasy points to running backs this season. He’s a top-10 RB on my board this week and priced at just $21.

Scott – I get it, it’s been a while since JERMAINE GRESHAM interested you. But he’s quietly caught five passes in three straight games, he has two touchdowns over the last month, and the Cardinals no longer have to waste targets and time on Michael Floyd. Given the fantasy wasteland at tight end this season, Gresham’s late run comes at a perfect time.

Brad – ROBBY ANDERSON. He’s the second-most targeted wide receiver over the past two weeks and draws a friendly matchup against a Miami secondary featuring a dubious pair of DBs, Tony Lippett and Byron Maxwell. East Coast Tyrell Williams surpasses 80 yards and finds the end-zone. At $13, he’s an original Picasso at a garage-sale price.

Conversely, what DFS option is the most OVERVALUED in Week 15?

Scott – If Matt Forte suits up for Saturday’s game against the Dolphins, it’s probably enough to push me off BILAL POWELL. Three other fades from a more seasonal tilt: not a chance I gamble on A.J. GREEN playing a full game; ALSHON JEFFERY has to deal with a new quarterback, a layoff, and nasty cold weather; and DELANIE WALKER won’t get anything easy against seam-dominating safety Eric Berry.

Dalton – I have to agree with Andy here (see below), TYROD TAYLOR is the second highest priced QB, and last week was the first time he threw multiple touchdowns in a game since October 16. The matchup is good, but I’d spend my money elsewhere, especially at the quarterback position.

Andy – Look, I understand that TYROD TAYLOR has a friendly matchup this week, facing Cleveland. But he’s no bargain at $37. That price simply isn’t in line with anything Taylor has done all season. He’s only tossed 13 touchdown passes, he’s been held under 200 passing yards eight times(!), and he hasn’t yet reached the 300-yard plateau in any game.

There are a number of high-profiled quarterbacks with initimidating matchups. Out of Ben Roethlisberger (at Cin), Tom Brady (at Den), Andrew Luck (at Min) and Drew Brees (at Ari) who has the best chance of going OVER 1.5 touchdowns?

Brandon –NOT BIG BEN. I have all of these QBs, save Roethlisberger, pegged for exactly two touchdown passes. But, let’s be clear, I don’t exactly have a peaceful, easing feeling about any of these QBs this week. If forced to pick which QB I’d employ, I’d say Brady because I think his two touchdowns will come with the fewest turnovers.

Scott – Big Ben on the road, especially in a division game, nope. I’m going to give DREW BREES the mild edge, since his receiving group (assuming Michael Thomas is back) is deep enough to offset one dynamic shutdown corner in Patrick Peterson. I also expect Arizona’s offense to show up in this game, forcing the pace and pushing the score into the high-40s or low 50s.

Andy – It’s a ridiculously hard matchup, no doubt, but I’m not willing to bet against TOM BRADY tossing two scores. Nuh-uh. Even if Denver’s secondary locks down Edelman, Mitchell and Hogan, the Pats can still do some damage with Bennett, Lewis and White. I don’t think Brady offers his usual ceiling this week, but his floor isn’t much lower than, say, 225 yards and two scores.

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