Fantasy Flames: Rob Kelley among under-started options for Week 11

Every Wednesday the Noise highlights 12 under-started names who he believes are destined to torch the competition. To qualify, each player must be started in fewer than 60 percent of Yahoo! leagues. Speaking as an accountability advocate, I will post results, whether genius or moronic, the following week using the scoring system shown here (Thresholds – QB: 18 fpts, RB: 13 fpts, WR: 11 fpts: TE: 10 fpts; .5 PPR). If you’re a member of TEAM HUEVOS, reveal your Week 11 Flames in the comments section below.

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Blake Bortles, Jax, QB (30 percent started, $32 in Yahoo DFS)
Matchup: at Det
It’s becoming increasingly believable Bortles is a direct descendant of Oscar the Grouch. He’s the Garbage Time All-Star. Often, his dumbfounding reads, errant throws and uselessness before halftime would make Blaine Gabbert seem competent. After a breakthrough 2015, his secondary profile has tumbled. On the season, he ranks outside the position’s top-20 in numerous categories including deep-ball completion percentage, yards per attempt and fantasy points per dropback. All too familiar to Allen Robinson backers, his gross ineptitude has greatly tarnished the receiver’s ‘dependable’ reputation, indicative in his WR20 output. If not for the fourth quarter, the only place Bortles thrives, the passer would be on equal fantasy footing with Jay Cutler (See last week). In other words, he’s largely unemployable. Still, favorable game scripts and soft coverage in lopsided deficits have occasionally benefited him. Despite his festering sores, Bortles is a highly recommendable play in Detroit. And, yes, that line was written stone sober. With or without Darius Slay, the Hello Kitties have lived down to their cuddly moniker. Collectively, they’ve allowed 7.8 yards per attempt, 272.1 pass yards and 2.2 passing touchdowns per game, equal to the third-most fantasy points surrendered to QBs. Giving credit, Slay and Nevin Lawson have given up a combined 57.9 passer rating, but seven of eight quarterbacks they’ve faced scored multiple touchdowns. Why? Poor safety play. It’s never pretty with Bortles, but he’ll find a way to cross the 19 fantasy-point line.

Fearless Forecast: 287 passing yards, 2 passing touchdowns, 1 interception, 12 rushing yards, 19.7 fantasy points

Rob Kelley, Was, RB (24 percent started, $17)
Matchup: vs. GB
It’s the remix to “Ignition.” Hot and fresh out the kitchen. “Fat” Rob rollin’ that body got every owner in here wishin.’ … R. Kelley is quickly climbing the charts. Overtaking a fumble-prone Matt Jones three weeks ago, the rookie from Tulane is just the latest undrafted product to rise to the top. His toughness between the tackles, versatility and general reliability has earned Jay Gruden’s trust. Tied for first with Jay Ajayi and Jordan Howard in average yards after contact among RBs (3.5) and coming off consecutive solid performances (87-1 vs. CIN, 95-0 vs. Min), he’s entrenched as the Redskins’ primary rusher rest of season. If you’re one of the fortunate individuals who plucked him off waivers a couple weeks back, this is the week he needs to be deployed. The cursory view of Green Bay suggests a difficult matchup. This fall, the Packers have allowed a mere 3.7 yards per carry and the sixth-fewest fantasy points to the RB position. Mike Daniels, one of the league’s most productive hole plungers, ranks near the top in stops among interior defenders. But Green Bay has lost much of its punch in recent weeks. Starting with Ezekiel Elliott’s bashing, it’s yielded 4.8 yards per carry, 106.7 rush yards per game and five touchdowns to rushers since Week 6. … Sip on some Coke and rum. It’s nearly the freakin’ weekend, baby. Kelley is about to have him some fun.

Fearless Forecast: 20 carries, 97 rushing yards, 1 receptions, 3 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.5 fantasy points

Duke Johnson, Cle, RB (35 percent started, $16)
Matchup: vs. Pit
Disaster. Catastrophe. (Expletive) show. No, I’m not talking about Travis Kelce’s foray into reality television, though it deserves similar adjectives and many more. I’m talking about the Browns. Barreling toward flawless futility, the league’s basement dweller may soon join the winless ranks of the ’76 Buccaneers and ’06 Lions. Hue Jackson’s bizarre benching of Cody Kessler last Thursday perfectly summed up the dysfunction. Remarkably, however, the Factory of Sadness has cranked out the occasional fantasy fruits. Terrelle Pryor and Isaiah Crowell, for example, have delivered starter-worthy lines in 12-team leagues. Duke has only been sporadically useful – he ranks RB41 in PPR leagues and has topped the 10-point line just four times – but that standing doesn’t define the rusher’s efforts this season. According to PlayerProfiler.com, he’s No. 2 in juke rate and tucks inside the top-12 in breakaway percentage and total evaded tackles. Essentially, his bland superficial numbers are not indicative of his true performance. Pittsburgh is an opponent that plays to Duke’s strengths. He’s most effective when given space to operate, an area the Steelers typically flounder in defensively. They’ve conceded 5.1 receptions and 59.1 receiving yards per game to the position. In fact, only San Francisco ranks ahead of Pittsburgh in most fantasy points allowed to RBs. Cleveland will roll out of bed Sunday down three scores, which should gift Johnson a larger than usual (8.9 touch/game average) volume. Throw the Chihuahua a biscuit.

Fearless Forecast: 6 carries, 32 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 18.1 fantasy points

Eli Rogers, Pit, WR (5 percent started, $15)
Matchup: at Cle
An unwritten rule in the Coates household, Sammie is never, ever allowed to pull the turkey out of the oven. NEVER. His long history of committing horrific, untimely drops explains why he can’t be trusted. It also explains why he’s completely fallen out of favor – he played on a whopping two snaps in Week 10 – elevating Rogers to the forefront. A Jamison Crowder/Julian Edelman clone, Rogers is quickly developing into a profitable slot machine. In his past two contests he’s seen 46 and 63 snaps, hauled in 15 catches for 145 yards and scored one touchdown. His 8.0 yards per target on the season sums up his ‘dirty worker’ role, but his odds of regular 5-7 catch games rest of season are substantial. This week will be no exception. The Pound Puppies have been caged in all facets defensively, particularly versus the pass. They’ve surrendered 8.3 yards per attempt, 285.9 pass yards and 2.5 pass touchdowns per game. An astronomical 14 receivers have exceeded 10 fantasy points against them. And that’s in standard leagues. Underneath the surface, corners Joe Haden, Brien Brody-Calhoun and Tramon Williams have given up 9.4 fantasy points per game to their assignments. Due to his increased role, matchup, Antonio Brown’s presence and Ben Roethlisberger’s machine-gun arm, Rogers is a bankable WR3 in Week 11.

Fearless Forecast: 6 receptions, 59 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 14.9 fantasy points

Kendall Wright, Ten, WR (5 percent started, $14)
Matchup: at Ind
The Human Torch eating a raw Carolina Reaper on a July day in Death Valley. That, my fellow fantasy freaks, is how hot Marcus Mariota is. Nearly inextinguishable since Week 5 – Drew Brees is the only QB to outpace him during that stretch – the former Heisman winner has suddenly blossomed into one of the virtual game’s premier passers. He’s delivered passes crisply and efficiently, spreading the love to his bevy of weapons. Because of that socialist approach, the fantasy value pendulum has swung sharply. Delanie Walker and Rishard Matthews have offered the most consistency, but Wright has tallied the occasional stellar performance (see efforts against Cleveland and Jacksonville). Though he’s largely untrustworthy, this is a week to trot out the receiver. Outside Vontae Davis, Indy’s secondary is comprised of penny horses. Patrick Robinson and slot man Darius Butler have yielded a combined 92.2 passer rating this year. Whether Wright lines up inside (31.5 slot%) or out, he’s sure to be blessed with a favorable matchup. Take the plunge.

Fearless Forecast: 5 receptions, 51 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 13.6 fantasy points

[Week 11 rankings: Overall | FLEX | QB | RB | WR | TE | DEF | K]

WEEK 11 SHOCKER SPECIAL (Under 10 percent started)

Kenneth Dixon, Bal, RB (7 percent started, $12)
Matchup: at Dal
For weeks, several fantasy pundits steadfastly told owners to add, stash and wait for Dixon to showcase his wares. Many talking heads, including Baldy McNoise, forecasted at the beginning of the season the rookie would stage a Terrance West takeover by Week 8. That, of course, never materialized, but the talented youngster, a couple weeks late, is about to deliver on the claim. Anyone with functional eyes and suitable cognition who watched last week’s Browns/Ravens #TequilaThursday spectacular saw an impressive Dixon completely outplay the incumbent. He was quick through the hole, impactful in space and downright slippery en route to a season-best 80 yards on 11 touches. The LA Tech product also posted a ridiculous 4.7 yards after contact average. Conversely, his counterpart resembled a blind Trent Richardson totaling a hideous 3.1 yards per carry and 77 yards on 22 touches. The workload gap was wide, but that’s sure to shrink. Point blank, Dixon is simply fresher, more skillful and more dynamic, a player who has the appearance of an unrefined Matt Forte. It’s not if, but when, John Harbaugh rewards him with more opportunities, which could happen this week. Dallas, still abuzz after last week’s dramatic triumph in Pittsburgh, is a formidable opponent, but it’s No. 5 standing in fewest fantasy allowed to RBs is deceiving.

Fearless Forecast: 10 carries, 41 rushing yards, 6 receptions, 38 receiving yards, 1 touchdown, 16.9 fantasy points

BONUS WEEK 11 FLAMES

#TEAMHUEVOS PICKS OF THE WEEK
Each week one fortunate guest prognosticator will have a chance to silence the Noise. Following the rules stated above, participants are asked to submit their “Flames” (1 QB, 2 RBs, 2 WRs, 1 TE, 1 D/ST) by midnight PT Tuesdays via Twitter @YahooNoise. How large are your stones?

Reader record: 23-48

Noise season record: 42-65 (Week 10 – 6-6; W: Rishard Matthews, Jameis Winston, Steve Smith, C.J. Prosise, Vernon Davis, Tyreek Hill; L: Jay Cutler, Chris Ivory, Kapri Bibbs, Darren Sproles, JJ Nelson, Jacksonville D/ST)

Follow Brad on Twitter (@YahooNoise) and check out his new TV show, ‘The Fantasy Football Hour,’ Wednesdays on Altitude TV (Channel 681 on DirecTV, 412 on DISH).