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Week 10 Care/Don't Care: Texans offense needs Nico Collins back, but is he a fix-all?

matt harmon
Fantasy analyst

In some ways, the 2024 Lions have been a bit of a different journey than the group most fans, especially fantasy football players, came to know in the early days of Dan Campbell’s run as head coach. For much of the previous two seasons, the Lions were a high-flying unit that got invited into shootout game scripts thanks to their generous defense and sneakily talented offense.

And yet, the 2024 Lions feel much closer to the actualized version of what Brad Holmes and Dan Campbell wanted to build. They’re a gritty team that can win ugly games. Almost no game was more hideous than their Week 10 win over Houston, where their starting quarterback threw five interceptions. Yet, more critically, they're a team dripping with self-confidence that can drag themselves out of any holes. Few teams found themselves further down in the muck than the Lions early on against Houston.

Sometimes, interception counts can be faulty. Touchdown to interception ratio can lie to you. That was not the case with Jared Goff’s five picks in Week 10, all of which were pure, uncut gaffes of the highest degree.

His night was so uninspiring that it put him in the Nathan Peterman zone; you never want to be in that range.

Dan Campbell said in his post-halftime interview that this win would come one step at a time. “We can’t get it all back at once.” As he said it, as it was.

A full team effort took place to get the Lions back in position to kick a game-winning field goal. The defense picked off C.J. Stroud twice and consistently put him under duress with the pass rush. Jameson Williams made critical downfield catches to set up touchdowns. The running backs heated up after an ice-cold first half. David Montgomery punched in a touchdown and hauled in a 24-yard catch, while Jahmyr Gibbs ripped off several big yardage plays in both the run and pass game. Most notable of all, after a silent first half amid a creative coverage plan, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Goff hooked up multiple times on critical down and distance situations.

The Lions are a complete team. They haven’t always been a pretty team, but no one cares. Well, fantasy gamers who want this offense to fire on every cylinder with a defense that’s giving it up on the other end probably don’t love it. That version of the team isn’t coming back.

Despite injuries on defense, that side of the ball is competent and difficult to play against on the back end. Offensively, this game wasn’t what we expected and we will likely never see it again. The fact that the Lions can battle through it with the utmost confidence and belief — that’s what satisfies their status as a contender.

Christian McCaffrey’s return to a full workload will be the main story but it’s not the only takeaway from this game. With the 49ers coming out of their bye week, we finally got our first look at what they intend their wide receiver room to look like in a post-Brandon Aiyuk world.

Jauan Jennings returned for his first game since Week 6, which proved to be a big deal. Jennings wasn’t active in the game Aiyuk tore his ACL or the first week after and that proved to be a big data point. For most of his career, Jennings has been a power slot receiver for the 49ers who got most of his playing time and production on late downs. He played a different role in Week 10, taking Aiyuk’s vacated X-receiver spot. Kyle Shanahan noted this after the game and indicated Jennings would stay there the rest of the season.

Jennings ran the most routes on the team and led the wide receiver room in outside snap rate in Week 10.

While Jennings never played out at X previously, his skill set translated to this gig due to his experience as a third-down specialist. Last season, per TruMedia, 10 of his 19 receptions came on third down, and he was targeted on 21.1% of his routes against man coverage compared to 13.6% against zone coverage. Man coverage rates go up on late downs and critical situations, so it makes sense that Jennings is more productive against man.

If you’re going to play X-receiver, you must win these types of one-on-one ISO routes. Jennings has shown this skill set for years. He’s always been highly productive on out-breaking patterns, which continued in Week 10.

We also got some answers beyond Jennings in the receiver room. Deebo Samuel ran a route on 85.4% of the dropbacks and held his usual role. Rookie Ricky Pearsall ran a route on 73.2% of the dropbacks and led the team in slot snap rate. Pearsall wasn’t drafted to replace Brandon Aiyuk; he was selected to bring a new dimension as a flanker/slot hybrid who can win on crossers and option routes. Pearsall showed off his route running and explosive play ability against the Bucs. Jennings is likely the better fantasy option going forward, but Pearsall will have his moments to eat on some layup targets.

It’s worth noting that all of this came against one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Tampa Bay secondary makes every passing attack look a bit better than it is. However, just getting answers on roles and alignment for these wide receivers was critical. Regardless of matchup, this group is deep enough to survive the injury to its top wide receiver and still go down as a top offense this season.

It was hilarious to watch my Twitter timeline try to project when Daniel Jones would be benched in the morning Week 10 contest over in Germany. Many seemed to think Jones’ interception off of Jadeveon Clowney’s head after an utterly lifeless half would be the final straw … only to see him trot right back out for the first drive of the third quarter.

Have we learned nothing here? This team will seemingly give Jones every opportunity to play himself out of the QB1 role. Against every piece of evidence, they’ll seemingly wait until the very last moment to call it on the Jones era.

The reality here is that the Giants have no salvation this season. Backup Drew Lock isn’t going to offer above-average starting quarterback play. There’s a real chance that, if Lock hadn’t offered up some ghastly play during relief duties in Week 7, we’d already have seen him get a start in place of Jones.

Given what we know about these two quarterbacks, none of this is shocking. That doesn’t make it any more frustrating given that there are actually some good young players on this offense for the first time in years.

Guys like Malik Nabers and Tyrone Tracy Jr. haven’t been perfect. Both have made rookie mistakes. However, Nabers is still an obvious superstar candidate and Tracy has shown skills of being a high-end starting running back. Even rookie tight end Theo Johnson has displayed some real potential. There’s just no hope of anyone hitting their ceilings in this attack. Head coach Brian Daboll knows it; you can feel his frustration with the fruitless nature of this offense in every in-game interview.

At some point, the Giants will pull Jones to avoid paying his injury guarantees because, even if they won’t admit it yet, the delusion that he will be the future of this team is over. Nothing will change the lack of ceiling for these intriguing young players in 2024. We just have to hope the Giants can finally get serious about their quarterback position this offseason.

Far from a perfect head coach, I always gave Robert Saleh a lot of credit for keeping the Jets defense engaged and near the top of the league rankings while the offense stunk up the joint on the other side. The Jets avoided the usual mutinies that happen when one side of the ball carries that much dead weight. It’s ironic that since Saleh was shown the door — and a bit before then, if we’re being honest — the Jets have quickly slipped into an embarrassment.

That said, let’s not take anything away from a gorgeous Kyler Murray performance in Week 10.

For many reasons, some fair and unfair, the Cardinals' passing game has been the source of hyper-scrutiny this season. Murray has to share some of the blame with the up-and-down nature of the unit, but Week 10 was a reminder of why you live with some of the volatility and keep the faith that with more time working alongside coordinator Drew Petzing, we can get an excellent passing attack in the desert.

Murray went 8-for-8 under pressure on Sunday, per Next Gen Stats, completing those passes for 87 yards. He readjusted better in the pocket than at any point this season and continues not to compound errors. Murray pushed the ball down the field when needed and threw players into open field lanes with the ball in their hands. The Cardinals gained 179 of their 266 total receiving yards after the catch in Week 10. That’s a representation of Murray’s decision-making and accuracy, in addition to the Jets’ memory loss in the art of tackling.

I’ve been dialed into Marvin Harrison Jr.’s usage all season, so I’ve reviewed a ton of Cardinals' film. I’ll be shocked if this doesn’t go down as Murray’s best game of the season by a significant margin. It’s also the second straight week where the Cardinals staff dramatically out-coached their opponent. With two games against the Seahawks defense, the Panthers and the Patriots on the schedule the rest of the way, we should believe the best days are still ahead for this team as the quarterback, staff, supporting cast and system continue to blend.

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The Buccaneers All-Pro left tackle is without question the type of offensive lineman whose absence would change the outlook of his team. Tristan Wirfs left this game with a knee injury that’s believed to be an MCL sprain.

The Bucs have a bye next week, which could not be more timely. Wirfs may not end up missing any time at all. However, his absence during this loss to San Francisco was a reminder that this Bucs team cannot afford to lose much more ground.

I’ve given both Liam Coen and Baker Mayfield a lot of credit all throughout the season but especially the previous two games in creating a still-strong offense without Mike Evans and Chris Godwin. As Tampa Bay takes another loss, I'm worried that we are nearing a breaking point of what this team can handle now with issues up front combined with near bottom-of-the-league wide receiver play.

This is the third straight game where Cade Otton and running backs Bucky Irving and Rachaad White have been the most productive pass-catchers for the Bucs. Those guys are good players in their roles, but no good NFL offense can survive being built in this fashion. All four of Tampa Bay’s top wide receivers registered negative EPA per target marks against the 49ers.

That’s legitimately hard to accomplish.

Coen has done masterful work to readjust the offense and keep the ship afloat. But there are only so many holes you can plug. If Tampa Bay doesn’t get Evans and Wirfs back on the other side of the bye, we may have to sell on the idea of ever seeing a productive passing attack out of this team for the rest of the season.

I’ve long since given up the hope that the Texans passing game will ever reach the preseason hype.

The wide receiver trio will now never all be together and fully healthy at the same time. The offensive line is a beyond-broken unit, and we’re at a stage where C.J. Stroud is starting to let bad habits creep into what was his ultra-clean game as a rookie. That’s where we’ve arrived, but it doesn’t mean we’ll be here forever with a guy who, I believe, is still one of the most promising young quarterbacks in the NFL.

The Texans can get Stroud back to superstar play if they can improve up front, get Nico Collins back in place as the best player on this offense and stay on schedule with the running game. The first is likely an offseason task, the second will maybe come next week but the third is something they don’t have to worry about despite a slow night from Joe Mixon in Week 10.

Mixon had cleared 100 rushing yards in all five of his games with Houston where he started and finished prior to Week 10. This one is the outlier. Despite issues up front, Mixon has been an explosive threat on gap runs (6.22 yards per carry, per Fantasy Points Data) and a steady presence on zone runs. Slowing down Mixon in this game was a credit to Detroit, first and foremost. Don’t overlook that this is a fantastic stop unit. Since Week 6, the Lions are a top-two defense in EPA allowed and a top-10 rushing success rate team. That’s the type of unit that can stifle a rushing attack.

Detroit doesn’t come back and win this game if its defense isn’t the kind of unit I’m describing.

Provided Mixon can get back on track — most of the evidence of the season points to that he can —some of the issues that have crept up for Stroud, that were displayed tonight, can be eased with Collins back in the mix. Next Gen Stats notes that the Texans quarterback completed just one pass for 17 yards under pressure in the second half and was sacked twice with one strip. He tore up the Lions in the slot, completing eight of nine passes for 177 yards but got nothing on targets out wide. Collins was Stroud’s most-targeted receiver when under pressure and was the most effective out-wide receiver in the league prior to getting hurt.

Of course, the offense, and even the quarterback, will begin to flounder when you don’t have your best players rolling. Stroud isn’t blameless and if these bad habits don’t get ironed out of his game over the next two months, then we can have a discussion. For now, even if this unit isn’t going to be the fireworks show I was hoping for, I expect Mixon to rebound, Collins to bring elite play back to the passing game and eventually, for Stroud to start treading water again.

I’m among the football universe members who owe Russell Wilson and Mike Tomlin an apology for carrying an air of doubt over the veteran's ascension to the QB1 spot in Pittsburgh. While I understood that the Steelers needed more than what Justin Fields gave them, I’ve been highly skeptical of Wilson since before he left Seattle.

That said, I quickly bought into the Wilson-led Steelers passing game early into his first start. Despite the apparent limitations, everything we’ve seen since continues to harden my positive stance on this group.

There’s no question that Wilson doesn’t activate the middle of the field or much in the intermediate area. Those have always been holes in his game, but he’s become a more extreme caricature of himself in the last two seasons. Everything in this Pittsburgh passing attack feels like a simple slant or flat route if it’s not a checkdown or go route.

And that’s more than fine with this personnel on offense. It actually fits perfectly with the George Pickens route tree and what you would ask of newly acquired Mike Williams in an ideal world.

The Steelers have all their divisional matchups remaining on the schedule. All of the three other teams in the AFC North suddenly have become ultra-advantageous matchups for opposing offenses. Baltimore is on the docket next week, so expect many more vertical shots from Wilson to Pickens who, with this remaining schedule and his connection with his new quarterback, might well be a top-15 wide receiver the rest of the season.

An actual last-second Broncos loss on a blocked Will Lutz field goal will overshadow an otherwise impressive showing against the undefeated Super Bowl champions.

Offensively, the Broncos likely got the best effort of Bo Nix’s young career. Usually, strong showings from Nix involve some gadgety plays or highlights with his legs. In Week 10, Nix registered -5 yards as a runner but made plenty of plays through the air.

The rookie had been aggressive in recent weeks, which would usually be a problem against this secondary, but he dialed it back against the Chiefs. Nix averaged just 6.4 air yards and threw into tight windows on just 6.7% of his attempts, one of the lowest rates among quarterbacks this week, per Next Gen Stats. He didn’t throw into the teeth of this secondary and moved well in the pocket. He primarily pushed the ball toward Courtland Sutton but still found some yards after catch opportunities to ancillary pass-catchers down the roster.

On the other side of the ball, Denver once again proved itself as one of the best defenses in the NFL. Given the way it plays man coverage on the back end and brings heat up front, it is a uniquely difficult matchup for the Chiefs and their current personnel. According to Next Gen Stats, Mahomes faced pressure on 40.8% of his dropbacks, the highest pressure rate he’s faced this season. Mahomes was 5-of-14 for 92 yards when pressured.

Denver is 5-5 and in the mix in the AFC Wild Card race. They lost this game on the final play of the game but it’s one of their more impressive outings of the season. If Nix can play safe ball through the air and the run game, which turned to rookie Audric Estimé, can stay on schedule, good complementary football is all this team needs alongside that defense.

We can be honest that Bryce Young still is not a perfect player. While he’s played with more confidence the last two weeks than what we watched at the start of this season, he still has limitations and the Week 10 film will be littered with missed throws down the field. That being said, I don’t think spending a ton of time focusing on lacking stats like Young’s 5.0 yards per attempt should be the story in Carolina at the moment.

Young’s time away from the starting gig does look like it accomplished the goal of settling him down and juicing up his confidence in his surroundings. Much of that is thanks to an environment that’s significantly better than the one he operated in earlier in 2024, and certainly during his rookie season.

What’s been made abundantly clear the last month as the Panthers have waffled behind center is that they have some young guys who can really play on offense.

Fresh off a well-earned contract extension, Chuba Hubbard enjoyed another dominant outing against the Giants with 36 opportunities. He was especially dangerous when he went off tackle, taking eight such carries for 87 yards. Hubbard has been one of the best backs in the league this year, and he hasn’t done it alone. Next Gen Stats noted that Hubbard had been contacted behind the line of scrimmage at the second-lowest rate among running backs with at least 50 carries this year. The interior of the offensive line is dominant, and Dave Canales has designed some gorgeous advanced rushing plays.

In the passing game, the Panthers have three rookies making an impact. No one turned in a massive fantasy game and none of them will emerge as weekly fantasy starters, but I’m confident they’ve found some building blocks. Xavier Legette flashes man-coverage-beating ability and makes high-degree-of-difficulty plays. Jalen Coker looks like a real-deal keeper as a power slot and Ja’Tavion Sanders is well ahead of schedule as a breakout tight end.

All that matters for the Panthers right now is to evaluate this roster to see if Young is salvageable and if there are some guys worth developing as starters next year and beyond. Oddly enough, because we know the answer to the second is a resounding yes, it will be easier to get a solid answer to the first question.

If Shane Steichen’s post-game comments are any indication, the Colts may be ready to live in their delusional world a little while longer.

Since it was announced, I’ve maintained the same position on the hotly debated Anthony Richardson benching. It was completely defensible to sit Richardson for a few weeks to give him a breather, clear the cobwebs and clean up some bad habits before the season spiraled away from him. You could even justify a performative benching for a week if some teammates were furious after he admitted to tapping out of a game when he was tired a couple of weeks ago.

What never made sense to me was pulling Richardson because Joe Flacco gave the team a better chance to win.

It didn’t stand up to reason then and it certainly doesn’t make a lick of sense after Flacco has registered the Colts' two worst EPA per play performances of the season over the last two weeks.

Even if Flacco was going to give them a better chance to win — and it sure doesn’t look like it — where exactly did the Colts think they were going this year?

The defense has been a decidedly below-average unit all year. Even if the personnel was great, having Gus Bradley as your defensive coordinator puts a hard ceiling of mid-level on your stop unit in 2024. The offense is a unit still in development that looks great for a team building toward the future but is still in the growing phases. They have a lot of potential but they’re not a finished product on that side of the ball.

Unless Jim Irsay and whoever else deluded themselves into Flacco as the savior only watched 2023 Amari Cooper highlights, I have no idea how you could arrive at the conclusion that his brand of exciting but flawed brand of football was a real counter to what Richardson offered the offense. The coaching staff announced Flacco as the starter for the rest of the season after Richardson was benched, right before Flacco went into a gauntlet of tough matchups. He’s not going to make it through said run of defenses.

All that should matter at this point for the Colts is getting Richardson back into the fold and developing him, along with all their young players on offense, into something close to a best-case scenario. Indianapolis has a lot of young pass-catchers on rookie deals like Adonai Mitchell, Josh Downs and Alec Pierce who should be growing with their young passer and trying to figure it out together.

The Colts can get something similar to what Carolina is enjoying with Young coming off the bench after his breather, and their guys are much more talented across the board. The problem is, I don’t think this team is quite ready to let go of their delusion.