Week 1 Fantasy Viewer's Guide: A bountiful battle of the birds

Let’s put a fantasy spin on the Week 1 action by ranking the games in expected order of point-producing relevance using the over/under totals from Las Vegas, specifically as reflected on Thursday at VegasInsider.com.

We’ll ignore the Thursday game, which should produce many points this week. But at least it’s not the No. 1 game on the board. You have to go to Atlanta if you are searching for the point motherlode. Unfortunately, you have to wait until Monday night

The Top Five

1. Eagles at Falcons, Monday, 7:10 pm (all times EST), O/U 55.5: The Eagles play faster than everyone which means you get more plays out of whoever they face that week, too. So expect Philly game’s to dominate this weekly ranking. Is Sam Bradford the quarterback Chip Kelly has been searching for? I expect him to finish inside the top 10 this year and especially this week. Yes, Bradford’s knees are made of fine porcelain. However, he now gets an ace offensive line. Hopefully, though, not too many read options now that the NFL has declared open season on quarterbacks on these plays. How will starter DeMarco Murray and backup Ryan Mathews share carries? Is Jordan Matthews a WR1 or a WR2? I’m leery of Nelson Agholor but Kelly says he expects an “instant impact.” So play him, too. I would start Tevin Coleman in non-PPR as a flex given his big play ability, which can neutralize the Eagles' seemingly stout run defense (just 3.7 yards allowed per rush last year).

 2. Giants at Cowboys, Sunday, 8:30, O/U 51.5: Eli Manning threw a league-high 57 passes into the end zone last year. Andre Williams was 6-for-9 on goal-line runs (three yards or closer). Rueben Randle seemingly has no chemistry with Manning but is very playable given that he’s a solid bet for 10 targets. I don’t see how Rashard Jennings is ever a solid play given Williams is getting the goal-line work and Shane Vereen the catches. Joseph Randle needs to start hot and stay hot to have fantasy relevance, a lot to ask.

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 3. Ravens at Broncos, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 49.5: Peyton Manning’s arm was fine last year with a fourth-best 103.6 rating on 11-plus-yard throws, and he threw a higher percentage of these throws (32.8%) than league average (30%). On 31-40-yard throws, Manning was 10-for-19 with a 133.1 rating (and that percentage of throws for this distance was about average). Will Buck Allen get some rotational action backing up Justin Forsett, the league’s worst goal-line runner (2-for-11 last year, 4-for-22 career)? Forsett was also one of the least efficient receiving backs ever last year and for his carer in yards per catch (minimum 40 (season) and 150 (career) catches, respectively).

 4. Packers at Bears, Sunday, 1 p.m., O/U 49: As an Alshon Jeffery owner (one share), I hope he sits (calf). The big story in this game will be the target allocation among the Packers wideouts. Will Davante Adams get a Jordy Nelson-sized share or will he be viewed as just another guy running patterns? Adams was a VERY inefficient player last year compared to his teammates and even all receivers regardless of team. But he’s nonetheless projected by many to finish inside the top 20, something even I can see given that his quarterback is the best who has ever played.

 5. Saints at Cardinals, Sunday, 4:05, O/U 48: I want to see if Andre Ellington is a playmaker like in 2013 or a bum like in 2014. If not, David Johnson is in the wings, though currently No. 3 on the depth chart. Also the target allocation among Cardinals WRs is key. Is this the John Brown Show? (How crazy is it to even write that?) What about forgotten man Michael Floyd? Drew Brees has seven straight 30-plus touchdown seasons, an NFL record by far. Yet no one views him as at the No. 1 quarterback because he’s going to be the game manager for the running back that everyone laughed at last year (Mark Ingram)? Huh? If Brees is Brees (a safe bet) who emerges as a viable fantasy receiver? We need answers quickly.

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The Best of the Rest

 6. Lions at Chargers, Sunday, 4:05, O/U 46: Amer Abdullah has so much buzz but is No. 3 on the depth chart. And if you see him returning punts and kickoffs, pretty much right him off in 2015 as a contributor from scrimmage as that’s only happened a handful of times for RB/returners in league history (out of about 250 examples). Melvin Gordon was a tech bubble this summer. He started training camp as a consensus top 30 pick and ended it as a laughing stock for anyone who dared pick him (I’m looking at you, Jordan Peele). So now we can see how he begins his NFL transition with the bodies flying around for real. Was the 7.8 yards per carry and 25% of runs of 10-plus yards skill based or was it a product of the famous Wisconsin offensive line? Again, scouts compare him to Jamaal Charles meets Marshawn Lynch.

7. Colts at Bills, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 45:  Will Tyrod Taylor help the running game like most running QBs (0.5-to-1.0 per carry)? And will his running volume cut into the targets and viability of Sammy Watkins as a borderline No. 2 fantasy WR? If Frank Gore can be productive against this Bills front seven then I think his owners can crow about him being a solid running back. Andre Johnson can also begin to prove doubters like me wrong, but Johnson is more about declining skill already witnessed than the threat of cratering as an older player. Johnson has already cratered and needs a Sinatra-like second act, so rare in sports.

8. Dolphins at Redskins, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 43.5: If you’re an Alfred Morris owner, you’d like an efficient running day given his bad yards per carry in games where Robert Griffin III sits. On the Miami side, is Jarvis Landry a bigger Julian Edelman or someone who can actually separate for big plays and touchdowns?

9. Bengals at Raiders, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 43: I expect 150-to-180 targets this year for Amari Cooper, so eight or less will have me concerned, especially if Derek Carr throws 40-plus passes (guaranteed).

10. Panthers at Jaguars, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 41.5: The only Jaguar you can play in the Panthers-Jaguars game with any confidence is Allen Robinson. He’s going to have to be an Amari Cooper-like target hog to be productive. So that’s the number on which to focus primarily on Sunday.

11. Chiefs at Texans, Sunday, 4:25, O/U 41.5: Will Alex Smith throw a pass into the end zone in Houston? He did that only eight times all of last season. I like Jeremy Maclin but he’s an over-the-top receiver with an underneath QB. He’s going from a team that threw about 34% of passes 11-plus yards to a QB who did that on just under 19% of attempts.

12. Titans at Buccaneers, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 41.5: You have No. 1 vs. No. 2 rookie QBs in Titans at Bucs. But the bigger question is whether Doug Martin is a viable No. 2 RB or the guy with 11% of his career points in one game? Bishop Sankey is viewed by a handful, including me, as a big-time sleeper given overrated struggles last year — he was very  good in elusiveness and about average in play success rate. And does he get the running QB bump in efficiency?

The Dead Zone

13. Vikings at 49ers, Monday, 10:20 pm, O/U 41.5: The big story in Minnesota as they visit the 49ers is whether Adrian Peterson is going to beat Father Time at age 30 as easily as he beat defenders through Age 28. But what I’ll be most interested in is whether Charles Johnson can form an easy chemistry with developing quarterback Teddy Bridgewater or if their collective inexperience is too much to overcome. I expect Johnson to finish as a top 20 WR.

14. Seahawks at Rams, Sunday, 1:00, O/U 40.5: Russell Wilson’s chemistry with new arrival Jimmy Graham is the fascinating story in the Seahawks-Rams game. Noting else is of special interest.

15: Browns at Jets, Sunday, 1:00 pm, O/U 39.5: I want to see who the Browns send Joe Haden up against among the Jets receivers. Is it Brandon Marshall, or does Eric Decker get enough respect that the Browns don’t shadow? I also think the Bilal Powell gets about 14 touches and that makes him a player of interest in very deep leagues and someone worth monitoring given that Chris Ivory has never been tested as a bell cow.