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Week 1 Fantasy Football Booms & Busts: C.J. Stroud, Texans don't get the sloppy play memo

scott pianowski
Fantasy analyst
·10 min read

Do you remember your freshman year of college? You might have been a little confused and overwhelmed in the early weeks as you found your bearings. It takes a while to get used to the shape of campus and the social flow of college life.

And then you come back sophomore year and things are so much easier. You've figured the place out. You know where the parties are, who has the best pizza, where to park your car or catch reliable public transportation.

Most of the early window NFL offenses for Sunday's Week 1 stumbled around like confused freshmen. The average team output was a skimpy 16.8 first downs and 283 yards. Thankfully, we had some sophomores (and upperclassmen) to rely on.

Stroud, Texans flex offensive muscle 💪

Let's start with one of the buzziest offenses in the league, the Houston Texans. The C.J. Stroud-piloted offense was best in show during Sunday's 1 p.m. window, rolling up 26 first downs and 417 yards. It led to a 29-27 victory at Indianapolis, and plenty of fantasy production to go around.

Newcomers Joe Mixon and Stefon Diggs got acclimated quickly; two more hits for the transfer portal. Mixon turned back the clock with a decisive shredding of the Colts defense (30-159-1 rushing, 3-19 receiving), easily getting to the second level consistently. Diggs caught all six of his targets and while they only went for 33 yards, he scored a couple of short touchdowns.

That did it for the end zone, but other Texans were heard from. Nico Collins flashed during a snappy 6-117-0 afternoon (I still think he's the alpha of this passing game) and Tank Dell offered 59 total yards, even if four of his seven targets went incomplete. Stroud was more efficient than bombastic in the opener (24-for-32, two touchdowns, 7.3 YPA), but he didn't turn the ball over or make any big mistakes. And when drives stumbled — the Texans did absorb four sacks — kicker Ka'imi Fairbairn was ready, drilling three field goals from 50 yards and up.

So while the Texans left some points on the field, the offense still registered a high octane reading. Stroud looks like an MVP-run waiting to happen, and it was a win to retain highly-regarded OC Bobby Slowik for at least one more season. We'll all get a good look at Houston next week, when it hosts the Bears on Sunday Night Football.

The Colts were on the other side of Houston's win, producing some big plays but not enough consistency. Anthony Richardson made a handful of highlight throws — three of his completions went for 50, 57 and 54 yards, two of them for touchdowns — but he didn't have enough play-by-play consistency. If you take away Richardson's three home runs (and I get it, they certainly count), he was otherwise 6-for-16 for 51 yards, with a pick. He missed a few wide-open throws (sorry about that, Michael Pittman), and at times was late with processing and decision-making.

The erratic play held the Colts to just 14 first downs. It was a boom-and-bust offense for three hours.

The joy of Richardson, of course, is he can have a so-so NFL game and still be a star for fantasy. He added 56 rushing yards and one ground score to his 212 passing yards and two scores, pushing him up to 27.08 points in Yahoo standard scoring. As always, we're just in it for the numbers. Imagine what's possible when Richardson's game starts to mature. Obviously he's made just five pro starts.

Maybe the Colts are destined to be one of those carnival teams, with a bunch of indoor games and the potential to play in shootouts regularly. Next week they head to Green Bay and face a Packers defense that played poorly in the Friday loss to the Eagles in Brazil — and the team as a whole is in a bit of identify crisis after Jordan Love's injury.

Speaking of freshmen, a number of ballyhooed rookies did little in their debuts. Caleb Williams threw for just 92 yards and a meager 3.2 YPA. Rome Odunze had one catch on four targets, and now has an MCL sprain. Obviously, the Bears will eventually throw a lot on Williams' plate, but given how good the Chicago defense is, the early asks might be modified.

Marvin Harrison Jr. was also quiet (one short catch, three targets, one drop) and that was more of a shock, given that Arizona called 35 passes and was chasing the game at Buffalo. Harrison was also wide-open for a late-game touchdown but Kyler Murray didn't see him. Murray only managed 5.2 YPA and 7.7 yards per completion against an ordinary Buffalo defense. Arizona might be facing high-scoring games with the Rams and Lions the next two weeks, so I'd go back to Harrison in a second.

Brian Thomas Jr. was the best rookie in the opening window, catching all four of his targets for 47 yards and a touchdown (narrowly missing a second score, a play where he drew an end-zone interference flag). There's plenty of talent in this Jacksonville receiving room, but I wouldn't be surprised if Thomas led the Jaguars in touchdown catches.

• The condensed nature of the Miami passing game remains a beautiful thing — Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle and De'Von Achane combined for a juicy 19-315-1 line, absorbing 24-of-36 targets. I'm still not sure how talented Tua Tagovailoa really is, but with all these track stars on his offense and play-designing whiz Mike McDaniel calling the plays, this is a bankable passing game.

• Tank Bigsby looks like one of the most improved players in the league. Bigsby (12-73) ran better than Travis Etienne Jr. (12-44-1, lost fumble) and would be a no-doubt fantasy starter if Etienne fell into injury. Jacksonville didn't want Etienne to repeat last year's heavy workload, and a productive Bigsby would make that plan easier to implement.

• Perhaps the Patriots defense is good enough to offer buoyancy to Rhamondre Stevenson's weekly value. New England played ultra-conservative in its box-to-wire win at Cincinnati.

• The Steelers won a rock fight at Atlanta, securing the victory despite zero touchdowns and little flow on offense. Mike Tomlin would love four months of this type of football, given the shape of the Pittsburgh offense. Atlanta might regret not playing its primary offensive pieces during preseason; they were one of the rustier offenses on Sunday.

• I wrote plenty in the summer on the merits of Dave Canales and how he might turn the Carolina offense around. It's not going to be an easy fix, apparently. Bryce Young struggled for three hours, stumbling to 193 yards and taking down Diontae Johnson and Chuba Hubbard in the process.

• Even on a day when the Saints scored 47 points, they were still somewhat frustrating for fantasy. Five different players scored touchdowns and only Alvin Kamara was a no-doubt fantasy starter among that touchdown group; meanwhile, WR1 Chris Olave (2-11-0) and hybrid Taysom Hill (36 total yards) didn't score touchdowns. Maybe we all owe an apology to Derek Carr, who was a crisp 19-for-23 for 200 yards and three touchdowns. Rashid Shaheed is a name to remember during bye-week season; he can make your week with one big play, like he did Sunday (59-yard touchdown).

• Amari Cooper's 2-16-0 line on nine targets leaves a mark, a reminder of how lost Deshaun Watson looks at times. But with David Njoku and Jerry Jeudy hurt, Cooper's market share is secure and might even increase. You might not want to watch it every week, but Cooper should be fine.

• The Rams could scheme Cooper Kupp open any time they wanted to, even after Puka Nacua got hurt — a PCL sprain will cost the receiver at least four games after he was placed on injured reserve on Monday. A healthy Kupp is capable of being as impactful as anyone who went in the first five rounds. He's linked to the perfect quarterback and environment, and still is an ankle-breaker as a route-runner. (It's a crime he didn't win the 2021 MVP, when he was the best player in football. If the award were Most Outstanding and not Most Valuable, Kupp wins easily.)

• Rachaad White's breakout last year was all about boring volume and a lack of efficiency. It only took one game for Bucky Irving to match White's workload and to offer more juice.

• Jayden Daniels was far from perfect in his debut, but he made plays in both the passing and running game and of course punched in a couple of short rushing scores. If the Commanders can keep Daniels healthy, he's set up for a carnival season trying to chase what the Washington defense is giving away.

• Zac Taylor punting on fourth-and-5 near the end of the upset loss to New England was justly criticized, and Taylor deserves plenty of blame for sitting 1-10 in Week 1-2 games over the last six years. But the worst coaching call of Sunday was Antonio Pierce calling for a punt on 4th-and-1 midway through the fourth quarter — with the Raiders in plus territory and trailing by six.

• Although David Montgomery is probably the best interior runner the Lions have, Detroit regularly rotates its two primary rushers and often it's a single back getting an entire series to himself. Montgomery was a bowling ball as Detroit pushed the Rams around in overtime, but Jahmyr Gibbs will have opportunities to punctuate drives as well. It certainly doesn't hurt to be running behind the league's best offensive line.

• It was a horrible Week 1 for vanity tight ends, which makes me wonder if many teams were keeping tight ends to block more than usual to mask offensive-line concerns. I'll dig into the route and usage date during the week. Maybe this is a year-over-year staple; I'm open to ideas.

• The Seahawks threw a modest 25 passes against Denver and only Tyler Lockett went past four targets, so I'm not going to freak out over anyone's production here, especially the quiet Jaxon Smith-Njigba. But summer allegiance is a fickle thing; JSN needs an uptick against New England or Miami if he's going to stay in the starting conversation. The Jaxon Smith-Enigma label remains for now.

• In many opening weekends the Week 1 unveiling has a glorified-preseason feel, as teams try to play catch-up after getting limited game reps during the summer. I realize teams obviously practice and try to simulate competitive environments, but it's not the same thing. So many offenses looked like they were meeting for the first time. Now our job is to try to sort out what's signal and what's noise.