What to Watch: Regular-season points swings lead to Darlington drama

Cook Out Southern 500

(⏰ Sunday, 6 p.m. ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Darlington, South Carolina
Track length: 1.366 miles
Race purse: $8,644,143
Race distance: 367 laps | 501.32 miles
Stages: 115 | 230 | 367
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Starting lineup: Bubba Wallace rockets to pole
Pit stall assignments: See where drivers will pit
Defending winner: Kyle Larson, September 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Bubba Wallace sped to the Busch Light Pole Award, with a speed of 167.146 mph, securing his 23XI Racing Toyota a pivotal top starting position in Sunday’s Cook Out Southern 500 as he seeks a spot in the NASCAR Cup Series Playoffs. Carson Hocevar earned a career-best second-place starting spot in the No. 77 Spire Motorsports Chevrolet.

Two-time Southern 500 winner Erik Jones posted the fastest lap in Saturday’s practice session at 166.461 mph in the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club Toyota. Hendrick Motorsports’ Alex Bowman and Front Row Motorsports’ Todd Gilliland were quickest in 10-lap averages. | Full Saturday recap

Big story line

The swings that make a season

Twenty-five races have led us to the regular-season finale, a 500-mile showdown at one of NASCAR’s fiercest tracks with just three spots left to claim in the Cup Series Playoffs grid.

At least two spots will be claimed based on points, positioning Martin Truex Jr. (58 points above the elimination line) and Ty Gibbs (plus-39) in the most comfortable positions heading into the Southern 500. That puts Chris Buescher — 21 markers above the line — in the provisional final spot in the 16-driver bracket, with Bubba Wallace (minus-21), Ross Chastain (minus-27) and Kyle Busch (minus-106) eager to cut in line.

Before Sunday’s ultimate battle, a look at the swings that have Buescher, Wallace, Chastain and Busch on the brink of either playoff glory or regular-season heartbreak:

Chris Buescher: Kansas, Darlington spring
Details: If Chris Buescher misses the postseason one year after a three-win campaign in 2023, a simple two-week stretch in May will serve as the stinging what-if. Buescher was 0.001 seconds away from a playoff-clinching victory on May 5 at Kansas Speedway, falling short to Kyle Larson in the closest finish in NASCAR Cup Series history. In other words, no one ever came closer to winning a Cup race without claiming the checkered flag than Buescher.

One week later, Buescher was back in the hunt for another victory and leading with 10 laps to go over Tyler Reddick and Brad Keselowski — all until Reddick’s dive-bomb move into Turn 3 walled Buescher. The damaged plummeted Buescher from a minimum third-place finish down to 30th in the final rundown, a difference of 27 points that could become pivotal in determining Sunday night’s playoff outcome.

Bubba Wallace: Richmond spring, Michigan
Details: While Bubba Wallace hasn’t been as close to victory as Buescher this year, these three races jump out as collective missed opportunities for the No. 23 team. A late-race battle for fourth with Kyle Larson at Richmond Raceway resulted in Larson spinning across Wallace’s nose after the No. 5 Chevrolet slid loose and slowed ever so slightly. The resulting caution cued pit stops, with Wallace falling from the top five with two laps left in regulation to a 13th-place finish in overtime, costing him at least eight points.

At Michigan, Wallace’s 23XI Racing machine was blazing fast, leaving Denny Hamlin and Larson in the dust while charging to the lead early. But a Stage 2 crash at Lap 116 upended his day, triggered when Larson spun on corner exit with Wallace and the field behind with nowhere to go. Wallace nursed his battered car home in 26th, one lap down. The total point loss for Wallace is tougher to quantify since over 40% of the race remained at the time of his crash. But given his early speed, 14 fastest laps per loop data and early running position, a 10th-place run is reasonable to estimate — meaning his 26th-place finish cost him at least 16 points. Coupled with the points lost from Richmond, those 24 points could be the difference from a postseason berth.

Ross Chastain: Texas, Nashville, Michigan
Details: Though Ross Chastain’s laps led are down significantly in 2024 — 175 compared to 640 led in 2023 and 692 in ’22 — Texas and Nashville leap out as exceptions this year. The No. 1 Trackhouse Racing driver led 33 laps at Texas and was second in overtime on the white-flag lap. But a slip high in Turn 2 led William Byron to his rear bumper, turning Chastain on the backstretch, resulting in a 32nd-place finish — a 30-point swing in one corner.

Nashville echoed the same pain. Chastain was passed for the lead late by Hamlin and was cruising to a runner-up day before a late Austin Cindric spin sent the event to overtime. Lined up second on the restart, Chastain was crashed after contact from Larson and finished 33rd — this time, a 31-point swing.

Michigan netted a 13-point loss in overtime for Chastain. Restarting 12th, Chastain charged up the outside down the backstretch but became collateral damage when Alex Bowman hit the wall, creating a stack-up that sent Chastain spinning into the grass, where he got stuck and lost a lap, finishing 25th instead. In all, three overtime periods may have cost Chastain 74 points and may ultimately restrict him from the playoffs.

Kyle Busch: Atlanta, Daytona
Details: In a season full of tough moments for Kyle Busch, no what-if stands out more than Race No. 2 of 2024 at Atlanta Motor Speedway, where the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet finished third by 0.007 seconds in a three-wide finish behind race winner Daniel Suárez and Ryan Blaney. Busch has totaled 25 more points than Suárez this season, but Suárez’s victory seals him a spot in the postseason, while Busch enters a must-win situation at Darlington to advance.

Busch was painfully close to finishing the job last week at Daytona, but an improbable run by Harrison Burton and Parker Retzlaff propelled Burton to the win instead — by just 0.047 seconds over Busch. So while Buescher, Wallace and Chastain all left points on the table, a total of 0.054 seconds may separate Busch from another playoff run.

History tells us…

The postseason grid may not change Sunday night. According to Racing Insights, only twice in the elimination-style playoffs has a driver raced his way into the playoffs in the final race of the regular season. Ryan Newman did so in 2019 on points, and Austin Dillon won at Daytona in the 2022 finale.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

ERIK JONES. It shouldn’t be very surprising to see Jones’ name pop up here. Although Jones and the No. 43 Legacy Motor Club team have struggled to just one top 10 all season, Darlington is a track at which Jones has always excelled, scoring two Southern 500 triumphs, five top fives and eight top 10s in 13 starts. | Darlington odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Mark your calendars: 2025 schedules unveiled for Cup, Xfinity and Craftsman Truck series | Read article
• International territory: Cup ventures to Mexico City in ’25 in milestone event | Read article
• Reddick rising: On chasing Regular Season Championship with Jordan, Woods and Gretzky on hood | Read article
• Wallace on stakes at Darlington: ‘I need to portray the best race that I‘ve ever had in my career’ | Read article
• Three Xfinity teams penalized: Nos. 27, 28, 45 teams levied L1-level penalties after Daytona | Read article
• Power Rankings: Will Elliott, Larson topple Reddick for Regular Season Championship? | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: What’s next for Burton, and what a regular-season finale at Darlington highlights | Read article
• Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s crown jewel | Read article
• Field of 16: How the playoff picture shakes out with one race left to decide grid | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: Points battles aplenty as regular season wraps | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Head into the video vault with vintage Darlington replays | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs to don at Darlington | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• The last eight races at Darlington were each won by a different driver. The Darlington record for most consecutive different winners is 11.
• The eventual race winner has never finished worse than 10th in a stage in the 13 races at Darlington with stages.
• The top three in the regular-season standings are separated by 18 points, the closest ever at this point in a season.