What to Watch: No time to knock off rust in Richmond return

Cook Out 400

(⏰ Sunday, 6 p.m. ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Richmond, Virginia
Track length: 0.75 miles
Race purse: $7,925,121
Race distance: 400 laps | 300 miles
Stages: 70 | 230 | 400
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Starting lineup: Hamlin on pole at Richmond
Pit stall assignments: Coming soon
Defending winner: Chris Buescher, July 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Denny Hamlin was the slowest of the 10 drivers to advance to the pole round Saturday evening, but it was the pole-round hot lap that mattered for the No. 11 Joe Gibbs Racing Toyota as a 118.162 mph circuit around the Virginia short track earned Hamlin his 43rd career Cup Series pole. Hamlin’s teammate Martin Truex Jr. will join him on the front row, with Josh Berry, Chase Elliott and Christopher Bell rounding out the top five for Sunday’s starting lineup.

Austin Dillon was the surprise of Saturday’s practice and qualifying sessions. On the option tire, he put down the fastest single lap in the 45-minute session at 118.953 mph and was fourth in 10 consecutive lap averages. He backed up his rapid pace in practice with a sixth-place starting spot for Sunday night’s 400-lapper. Hendrick Motorsports struggled in practice, with all four Chevrolets outside the top 25 in 10 consecutive lap averages. However, Elliott was able to earn a top-five spot in qualifying, with William Byron (13th), Kyle Larson (15th) and Alex Bowman (17th) all starting inside the top 20 for the race. | Saturday recap

Big story line

Tight regular-season title, playoff bubble battles leave little margin for error this weekend

An extended practice session with the option tire will help Cup Series drivers get back into their competitive mindset after the two-week Olympic break, but it’s a rare lengthy pause in the schedule most aren’t accustomed to. Tack on the unknown of how the option tire will fare for a full 400-lapper, and it opens the door for a big shift in the playoff picture.

After his Brickyard 400 victory, Kyle Larson re-took the Cup standings lead over Hendrick Motorsports teammate Chase Elliott by 10 points. However, Hendrick has struggled in the summer race at Richmond recently, which could open the door for Tyler Reddick to jump both of them when the checkered flag waves Sunday as he sits just 15 points below Larson. Denny Hamlin took home the Richmond win in the spring, but the No. 11 Toyota driver has been in quite the slump and has faded back to 43 points at the top of the table behind his on-track rival.

Just 49 points separate 14th-place Ty Gibbs and 17th-place Bubba Wallace on the playoff bubble with four races to go. Martin Truex Jr. has provisionally wrapped up a spot with a comfortable 108-point gap, making it a four-driver fight for three spots. Chris Buescher (+17) and Ross Chastain both (+7) need to have a big weekend in Virginia before either driver finds themselves below the elimination line. Luckily for Buescher, August could be a huge month for the No. 17 RFK Racing driver as he won at Richmond, Michigan International Speedway and Daytona International Speedway last year. Could he go on a similar run? Wallace has yet to score a top 10 at Richmond, but he led 80 laps in the summer race last season and was on his way to a top five in the spring before contact with Larson brought out a caution and a slow pit stop parachuted him to 13th in overtime.

History tells us…

In-season breaks have favored Chevrolet recently. The sample size is small, but if you look at the recent history of races coming back from a week or more off during the season, you see one manufacturer at the top in the last four instances — Chevrolet. Three of those took place at Nashville Superspeedway, with Larson, Elliott and Chastain grabbing the checkered flag in those respective events. Following the last Olympic break in 2021, Larson led 27 laps en route to a Watkins Glen victory. Looking deeper into those races, Chevy drivers swept the podium in that 2021 Nashville race, finished 1-2 in the ’21 race at The Glen and had four of the top-six spots in the ’23 event at Nashville. It may mean absolutely nothing heading into Richmond, but it’s a trend worth keeping an eye on, especially as Chastain tries to solidify a playoff berth.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

JOSH BERRY. Berry will have a lot of eyes on him this weekend as he and crew chief Rodney Childers could get aggressive with Richmond being their best shot to steal a playoff spot. There’s good reason why the No. 4 Stewart-Haas Racing Ford could be a contender for the win as Berry was fast in the spring despite finishing 11th. According to NASCAR’s loop data, Berry completed 62 quality passes (passing a car in top 15) in the spring race, which was tied for second-most and spent 90% of the race inside the top 15.

While 25-1 odds are nothing to scoff at, it does put him at the same level as Chastain and Kyle Busch on the oddsboard, two drivers who have struggled mightily this summer. | Richmond odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Not going anywhere: Daniel Suárez returns to Trackhouse Racing for 2025 season | Read article
• Staying golden?: Kyle Busch searching for rejuvenation at Richmond | Read article
• Play ball: Major League Baseball to host Braves, Reds at Bristol Motor Speedway in 2025 | Read article
• Stay aware: How to get notified for 2025 schedule release | Sign up!
• Rules update: NASCAR adjusts wet-weather tire procedure on ovals | Read article
• Busch good to go: No. 8 Richard Childress Racing driver to race despite wrist sprain | Read article
• LaJoie out: Corey LaJoie announces he will not return to Spire Motorsports in 2025 | Read article
• Phenom on the rise: Connor Zilisch to compete full-time in Xfinity Series for JR Motorsports in 2025 | Read article
• Power Rankings: Ryan Blaney within striking distance of regular-season crown | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: Welcome back to racing — what lies ahead? | Read article
• Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Sunday’s 400-miler | Read article
• Field of 16: How the playoff picture shakes out with four races left in regular season | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: Keep it simple this weekend | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Head into the video vault with vintage Richmond replays | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs primed for Richmond | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• Only one of the last 12 Richmond winners was under the age of 30.
• In the last seven Richmond races neither the stage 1 or 2 winner went on to win the race.
• The last three Richmond races were won by three different manufacturers.