What to Watch: Michigan pivotal to playoff position before Daytona, Southern 500

FireKeepers Casino 400

(⏰ Monday, 11 a.m. ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | MRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Brooklyn, Michigan
Track length: 2 miles
Race purse: $7,902,750
Race distance: 200 laps | 400 miles
Stages: 45 | 120 | 200
—
Leaderboard: Where drivers stand after 52 laps at Michigan
Pit stall assignments: See where drivers will pit
Defending winner: Chris Buescher, August 2023

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

A start-and-stop Saturday practice only saw the Cup Series field put down a handful of laps around the 2-mile facility that was eventually canceled due to inclement weather. Currently in a tie with Chris Buescher for the final playoff spot, Ross Chastain put down the single-fastest lap in practice with a 192.303 mph circuit. Martin Truex Jr., Kyle Larson, William Byron and Bubba Wallace were the five fastest in the shortened session.

With qualifying also canceled, the starting lineup for Monday’s race was set by the NASCAR Rule Book and Denny Hamlin will lead the field to green for a second consecutive weekend. Tyler Reddick will join him on the front row with Christopher Bell, Larson and Wallace all taking the green flag inside the top five. | Saturday recap

Big story line

RFK, Trackhouse, 23XI Racing fighting to get second cars into postseason

Three of the newest (or rebranded) factions in the Cup garage are all holding their breath in the final month of the regular season as they fight to secure both of their chartered cars into the 2024 playoffs. Tyler Reddick, Brad Keselowski and Daniel Suárez have all secured their spot in the 16-driver field but their tandem counterparts are still needing a win or strong closes over the next three races to have a shot at the Bill France Cup.

Bubba Wallace, Chris Buescher and Ross Chastain are separated by just three points in positions 15th-17th on the playoff bubble. Wallace has gained a remarkable 54 points on the elimination line in the last four races to put himself into the top 16 while Buescher and Chastain are in a tug-of-war for 16th dead even on points (Buescher owns the tiebreaker based on highest finish this season).

A bit of mirroring their respective teammates, Michigan, Daytona and Darlington could all play into the favor of Wallace, Buescher and Chastain. This Monday is the one and only trek to the Irish Hills but was one of three wins for the No. 17 RFK Racing Driver last season that gave Buescher a push all the way into the Round of 8. Reddick won his way into the playoffs at Talladega in the spring and Wallace has always been strong at Daytona and will be one of the favorites entering next Saturday night. The same goes for Chastain, whose teammate Suárez won his way into the postseason in a thrilling three-wide finish at Atlanta way back in February. Chastain was battling for the Daytona 500 victory to begin the season before spinning down the infield grass on the final lap with Austin Cindric.

All three drivers could be in the mix as well for the grueling Southern 500 to cap the regular season. Buescher was in line to win the spring race at Darlington before contact with Reddick in the closing laps forced both to pit road and opened the door for Keselowski to snap a 100+ race winless streak to clinch a playoff berth. Wallace finished seventh, while Chastain finished 11th. Buescher, Wallace and Chastain all placed inside the top seven in last year’s Labor Day weekend showdown.

History tells us…

The eventual winner hasn’t dominated recently. If the recent events at Michigan mean anything, Monday will be all about the long game to grab a pivotal checkered flag. Last year’s race, spanning two days due to inclement weather, was full of twists and turns as three Hendrick Motorsports Chevrolets crashed out and contenders Tyler Reddick and Christopher Bell had their own woes that took them out of the mix. It led to a thrilling duel win for the win between Truex and Buescher, with Buescher winning while leading just 52 laps.

In 2021 and 2022, Ryan Blaney only led eight laps before his victory while one of Kevin Harvick’s final Cup Series wins came with only leading 38 laps. The polesitter has only won at Michigan once in the last 10 races.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

DANIEL SUÁREZ. Michigan may not come to mind as a place where Suárez could be a contender but the driver of the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing Chevrolet has been in the mix in the two Next Gen events at the 2-mile oval. Suárez was in the mix in the 2022 race before a tire failure in the final laps plummeted his finish outside the top 20 but bounced back the following year to finish inside the top 10 with his teammate Ross Chastain. Both Chastain and Suárez are tied for the third most laps led at Michigan over the last two races (45) only trailing last year’s 1-2 of Buescher (53) and Martin Truex Jr. (47).

At 60-1 odds, Suárez is in the midpack on the oddsboard but as Chastain is still fighting for his playoff life, both Trackhouse Chevrolets should be strong once again Monday. | Michigan odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Dillon penalized: NASCAR rules Austin Dillon’s Richmond win ineligible for playoffs | Read article
• RCR to appeal: Richard Childress Racing will appeal penalties handed to Dillon after Richmond | Read article
• Defining the line: Officials step in after last-lap overstep at Richmond | Read article
• Stay aware: How to get notified for 2025 schedule release | Sign up!
• Back to Cup: AJ Allmendinger returning to full-time Cup Series racing with Kaulig Racing in 2025 | Read article
• Logano penalized: No. 22 Team Penske driver fined $50,000 for action on pit road after Richmond | Watch video
• No extra pressure: Chris Buescher not sweating playoff situation before final three races of regular season | Read article
• Best of the best: The 10 most-watched races so far on NASCAR Classics on one-year anniversary of launch | Read article
• Power Rankings: Could Dillon win again before postseason? | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: Does Austin Dillon still have a path to the playoffs? | Read article
• Racing Insights: Full finishing order projections for Monday’s resumption | Read article
• Field of 16: How the playoff picture shakes out with three races left in regular season | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: Ford looks for 10th straight Michigan victory | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Head into the video vault with vintage Michigan replays | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Fresh designs primed for Michigan | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• Joe Gibbs Racing drivers won the last five stages at Michigan but are winless there in the last 13 races.
• Eight drivers snapped a winless streak of at least 41 races at Michigan.
• Martin Truex Jr. has finished runner-up four times at Michigan.