What to Watch: Cup drivers looking to roll on Sunday for Loudon lobster

USA Today 301

(⏰ Sunday, 2 p.m. ET | USA Network | NBC Sports App | PRN Radio, SiriusXM NASCAR Radio)

Weekend schedule | TV schedule | Weather tracker | NASCAR 101

Location: Loudon, New Hampshire
Track length: 1.058 mile(s)
Race purse: $7,876,911
Race distance: 301 laps | 318.46 miles
Stages: 70 | 185 | 301
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Starting lineup: Elliott, Blaney to lead field to green Sunday
Pit stall assignments: See where drivers will pit
Defending winner: Martin Truex Jr., July 2023 | All-time winners at New Hampshire

Key things to watch

Saturday sessions

Saturday’s qualifying session was canceled due to inclement weather, and the starting lineup was set per the NASCAR Rule Book. Chase Elliott will lead the field to green for Sunday’s race, with Iowa race winner Ryan Blaney starting on the front row alongside Elliott. Defending New Hampshire winner Martin Truex Jr. will start seventh.

With a brief pause in Mother Nature’s activity in the Granite State, the Cup Series squeezed in a five-minute practice period for all 36 drivers. Carson Hocevar put down the quickest lap of 127.534 mph. Michael McDowell, Brad Keselowski, William Byron and Zane Smith made up the top five in the brief stint. | Practice results

Big story line

Is this the toughest year to make 16-driver field in playoff era?

While nine races still offer plenty of time for drivers near the bubble to make the 2024 postseason, it’s not about how much time is left before the checkered flag waves at the Southern 500 to close the regular season; it’s a matter of who’s fighting for said playoff spots.

Victories from Chase Elliott, Daniel Suárez and Austin Cindric this year have already guaranteed three drivers from 2023’s postseason will miss out in September. Along with Brad Keselowski’s Darlington Raceway win and Alex Bowman’s consistency to have himself 66 points above the current elimination line, the names that have murky outlooks heading into the summer are among the biggest in the sport.

Chris Buescher (+27) and Bubba Wallace (+6) currently hold the final two playoff spots. Both drivers advanced out of the Round of 16 last year, with Buescher making a run all the way to the Round of 8.

This year though, both drivers have fallen short when the opportunity has presented itself. Buescher lost out to Kyle Larson in the closest Cup finish ever at Kansas Speedway and was walled by Tyler Reddick battling for the win in the closing laps at Darlington. While Wallace hasn’t come as close to a win as Buescher this year, tracks like Charlotte Motor Speedway, Darlington and Kansas Speedway should’ve offered huge points days for the No. 23 team. However, the 30-year-old veteran only scored one top 10 at those three venues and doesn’t have favorable tracks coming up this summer.

Then, there are the two active multi-time Cup champions who are on the outside looking in. Joey Logano (-6) and Kyle Busch (-31) have had forgettable campaigns in 2024, to say the least. While in contention for decent runs the last few weeks, every instance of bad luck has seemingly struck the No. 8 RCR team after wrecking at Gateway while in the top 10, getting spun while in the top five on the final lap at Sonoma Raceway and then suffering a mechanical failure while in the top 10 last Sunday at Iowa Speedway.

As for Logano, the No. 22 Team Penske stable hasn’t shown consistent speed worthy of race wins. Across the last nine races, Logano has only led a combined 53 laps. He’s also trending toward his worst average finish (17.1 this season) since 2012.

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History tells us…

Loudon is veterans’ bread and butter. While only two races have been run at the flat, 1-mile oval in the Next Gen car, a specific trend pops out — old guys rule here.

Martin Truex Jr. has been the lead guy the past two years, leading 426 of 602 laps highlighted by his commanding triumph last season, the most recent victory for him in the Cup Series.

Brad Keselowski and Denny Hamlin scored top 10s in both Next Gen races along with the now-retired Kevin Harvick. The only driver that bucks the trend among longtime veterans and future Hall of Famers is Bubba Wallace, who has third and eighth-place tallies in Loudon the last two seasons.

If you are keen to leaning on drivers under 30, Chase Elliott (7.0) and Chase Briscoe (12.5) have the best average finishes of those that fit that age category.

He may not be the betting favorite to win, but watch out for…

JUSTIN HALEY. It’s not every weekend that a Rick Ware Racing driver becomes one to keep an eye on, but there’s real reason to pay attention to the No. 51 on Sunday. Recently, Haley has shown consistent top-10 speed on smaller and slower tracks. The No. 51 was among the fastest cars in the closing laps at Darlington to score a ninth-place result. Haley matched a season-best result two weeks later at Gateway. Iowa opened the door for another top 10, but the No. 51 lost spots on strategy and finished 13th. With Loudon having similar characteristics to Gateway (outside of length), don’t be surprised if you see Haley toward the top of the leaderboard during Sunday’s race. | Loudon odds

Speed reads

Our biggest pieces of the week — get covered for race day from all angles.

• Dual citizenship: Daniel Suárez sworn in as United States citizen | Read article
• Gene Haas to continue operation: Haas Factory Team to have one Cup charter, two Xfinity programs in 2025 | Read article
• Who will drive No. 19 in ’25?: Top candidates to replace Martin Truex Jr. at Joe Gibbs Racing | Read article
• A second Cup stint?: Cole Custer on future in Cup Series; lessons learned from first stint | Read article
• Mobility Pit Box: NASCAR, Toyota develop innovative pit box for individuals with mobility challenges | Read article
• Track treble: Drivers who won at same track in all three national series | Photo gallery
• Power Rankings: Logano looking for home-cooked lobster at Loudon | Photo gallery
• Turning Point: Who else might sneak into playoffs the rest of the way? | Read article
• Racing Insights: Fourth lobster for Hamlin? See full finish projections | Read article
• Field of 16: How the projected playoff picture shakes out pre-Loudon | Read article
• 36 for 36: Check out this week’s survivor pool picks | Read article
• Fantasy Fastlane: JGR, Penske lead way at Loudon | Photo gallery
• NASCAR Classics: Revisiting New Hampshire’s best events over the years | Read article
• Paint Scheme Preview: Home-run designs in the Granite State | Pick your favorite

Fast facts ⏩

Race-relevant statistics, brought to you by the experts at Racing Insights.

• Each of the drivers to finish top six at New Hampshire last year was a Cup champion.
• Entering this weekend, Martin Truex Jr. (1,170) and Kyle Busch (1,134) could pass Jeff Gordon (1,373) for most laps led all-time at New Hampshire.
• Four of the last eight New Hampshire winners got their first win of the season.