What to watch in Chiefs-Bills AFC title game? One down is more important than the others

Every play in the AFC Championship Game will matter. But pay close attention to third downs. That’s where Sunday’s Chiefs-Bills game could swing.

Both teams are excellent at converting third downs. The Chiefs ranked second in the NFL during the regular season, at 48.5%, while Buffalo was seventh, at 44.1%.

But the Bills were especially good in those situations against the Chiefs in Week 11, converting nine of 15 opportunities. That’s in addition to quarterback Josh Allen’s 26-yard game-clinching touchdown run on fourth-and-2.

“You’ve got to to be able to get off the field on third downs, especially when you’ve worked so hard to put yourself in a good position,” Chiefs coach Andy Reid said.

Neither side has been solid in stopping third downs this season. The Chiefs ranked 26th in third-down defense and the Bills 29, both around 43%. Last week, the Houston Texans converted 10 of 17 third-down opportunities in the Chiefs’ Divisional Round victory.

So, to limit third-down success, do the Chiefs continue their blitzing trend? A week ago, they sacked Houston’s C.J. Stroud eight times. But Allen is more elusive and, as the regular-season game suggests, can win games with his legs.

In their regular-season game against the Bills, the Chiefs, who lead the NFL in blitzes at 35%, forced an Allen interception but did not sack him. In their 2023 playoff victory at Buffalo, the Chiefs had their lowest blitz percentage in two seasons (17.8%), held the Bills to 24 points and won the game.

“You’re not going to stop everything,” Chiefs defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo said. ”We’re not going to shut somebody down. We need to slow them down and try to win situational downs.”

Here’s what else to watch in the AFC Championship Game at GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium on Sunday at 5:30 p.m. (CBS):

Chiefs player to watch: Tight end Noah Gray

Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is coming off his biggest game of the season. KC’s wide receivers were nearly shut out last weekend, and the expectation is for the group to come up big Sunday.

But don’t sleep on Gray. Against the Bills in November, he had the first of his consecutive two-touchdown games. In two career playoff games against the Bills, Gray has five receptions. Look for solid contributions from the No. 2 tight end.

Bills player to watch: Defensive end A.J. Epenesa

It took a team effort by the Bills to slow Baltimore’s Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry last weekend, and Epenesa contributed in a big way.

He finished with six tackles, two for loss, and played well in pass coverage. He was Buffalo’s highest-graded defensive player, according to Pro Football Focus. A former standout at Iowa, he recorded six sacks during the regular season and came up with a pair of interceptions last season.

Special teams player to watch: Bills K Tyler Bass

Bass has made all five of his field-goal attempts in the playoffs, including a 51-yarder, and nailed both field goals and all three extra points against the Ravens last week.

He booted a career-long 61-yard field goal this season. But his miss of a 44-yard attempt against the Chiefs in last season’s playoffs — an attempt that would have tied the game with less than two minutes remaining — is a painful memory for Bills fans.

The Chiefs’ Leo Chenal has blocked two field goal attempts this season, including one last week against Houston. The Texans also missed an extra point and Bass is coming off his worst year in that department, having missed five.

The Chiefs’ Harrison Butker went through a rough patch upon his return from minor (non-kicking) knee surgery, missing two field goals and an extra point in his final four games. But he was perfect on three field-goal attempts and two extra-point attempts against the Texans.