Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s power outage hits new low as Blue Jays continue to lack thump

Vladimir Guerrero Jr.'s underwhelming season has been a dominant storyline surrounding the Toronto Blue Jays all year, but the absence of the first baseman's power stroke is being felt more acutely in recent days.

Not only are the Blue Jays in the middle of a crucial series with the Texas Rangers, Brandon Belt hitting the IL on Tuesday means Toronto is now without its top three power hitters — measured by ISO — this season: Danny Jansen (.246), Belt (.219), and Matt Chapman (.182).

Considering the MLB average in the metric is .166, Toronto doesn't have a single player currently on the active roster who's provided meaningfully above-average power production in 2023. Rookie Davis Schneider is a notable exception to that statement, but he's played just 17.2% of the team's games.

All of that is to say the Blue Jays could really use some thump right about now, and Guerrero —who has a career ISO of .205 and hit 80 home runs between 2021 and 2022 — is the most logical candidate to provide it, particularly with Bo Bichette working his way back from injury.

Unfortunately for the slugger, and the team, Guerrero has not risen to the occasion. In his last 14 games the first baseman has hit .214/.313/.321 with a single home run.

Any good hitter is capable of having weak stretches over a couple of weeks, but we're seeing a particular kind of struggle from Guerrero that hasn't reared its head since he was a 20-year-old rookie.

Vladdy's numbers haven't impressed for most of 2023, but his underlying Statcast data indicated he was scorching the ball.

Issues with bad luck and too many hits to straight-away centre field appeared to be holding back what could otherwise be a promising season. Even now, his xSLG sits at a solid .503 while his average exit velocity (92.5 mph) is in the 93rd percentile.

More recently, the reasons for optimism have melted away. Guerrero's exit velo over his last 50 balls is 86.3 mph, making it the first time since 2019 he's been notably below average over a similar span:

He dipped just under league average for a moment in 2022, but this is the most discouraging run of poor contact he's had since his first MLB season.

Unsurprisingly, the pattern with his hard-hit rate is similar:

When Guerrero struggled in the past, his combination of hard contact plus solid walk and strikeout rates consistently indicated his time would come. Without the elite ball striking, we're no longer dealing with misfortune. Instead, he simply isn't performing.

Tuesday night's game was a prime example as the 24-year-old struck out on a pitch lightyears from the strike zone...

... and made some truly ugly contact in his last at-bat of the game:

Guerrero looks lost, and while that could change at any time, there's no longer a specific reason to believe it will other than faith in his raw talent.

Belief in Vladdy is justified based on everything he's achieved at both the minor-league and major-league levels. It's also justifiable to look at what he's doing right now and come to the conclusion he simply isn't himself, and won't be in 2023.

The book on his fifth MLB season isn't closed, but the chances of a happy ending seem to be getting slimmer by the day. Not only is he running out of time to course correct, he's looking less and less like a guy capable of finding a new gear.

What makes that especially devastating for the Blue Jays is that this is precisely the moment when they need a player like the one Guerrero has been in recent years. The team has an excellent pitching staff and a lineup that can consistently get on base, even in its currently depleted form.

Toronto needs someone capable of initiating quick-strike offence with consistent extra-base hits and home runs. Vladdy has been that guy. He'll probably be that guy again. But right now, at a critical moment for the team, he simply isn't.