Viktor Arvidsson: Over or Under 30 Goals?

One of my favorite categories to track in fantasy is shot volume. It's easy to track, easy to understand and has a direct correlation to goals, of course.

A player with a high shot volume tends to score more goals. Even if he's suffering from a poor shooting percentage, the high shot volume can still be incredibly valuable. A high shot volume also infers an offensively-minded player who gets enough leeway and ice time from his coach, which is a boon to their fantasy value.

Viktor Arvidsson fits that bill. Despite missing 42 games in his final three seasons with the Predators, and nearly all of 2023-24 — he was the Kings' Masterton Trophy nominee — Arvidsson ranks 51st in shots (1,480) since his breakout, 31-goal season in 2016-17. Among players who've scored at least 100 goals during that span, Arvidsson ranks 27th with 3.06 shots per game, just slightly below Sidney Crosby (3.06) and ahead of even Steven Stamkos (2.95) and Mikko Rantanen (2.89).

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According to naturalstattrick.com, over the past three seasons, Arvidsson ranks 52nd with 3.01 expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5, tied with Ryan Nugent-Hopkins. In first spot is Connor McDavid (obviously) but in third place is Zach Hyman.

Even in the Kings' more defensive, structured game, Arvidsson managed eclipse 20 goals and 200 shots; on the Oilers, he'll surely be able to at least match those numbers, even if he doesn't get to play with McDavid.

For a second-line winger, Arvidsson shoots the puck a ton and he's generally very reliable. With Hyman going from 26 goals in his first season with the Oilers to 54 goals last season, naturally, it's intriguing to think what Arvidsson can do. A change of scenery could really push his production to career highs.

The Oilers' projected 2024-25 forward lines:

Ryan Nugent-Hopkins - Connor McDavid - Zach Hyman
Jeff Skinner - Leon Draisaitl - Viktor Arvidsson
Mattias Janmark - Adam Henrique - Connor Brown
Vasily Podkolzin - Derek Ryan - Corey Perry

LTIR: Evander Kane
Offer sheet: Dylan Holloway

Let's forget about the Oilers' bottom six because it's not particularly strong and there's little offensive upside. Henrique, Brown and Janmark may be a serviceable checking line, but all three project to finish with less than 40 points each.

There are certainly a lot of moving parts, especially when the Oilers go nuclear and stack McDavid and Draisaitl together. But, at even strength, both Skinner and Arvidsson possess plenty of upside playing alongside one of the league's best passers.

Related: Jeff Skinner Might Have a Career Season... and Make the Playoffs?!

During his best season with the Predators, Arvidsson was used primarily in an offensive role with nearly 60 percent of his starts in the offensive zone. That changed with the Kings, especially when they acquired Phillip Danault and played him with Arvidsson in a matchup role.

If the Oilers stick Arvidsson with Draisaitl, who started in the offensive zone 62.30 percent last season, that's going to create a lot more offensive-zone chances for Arvidsson. On a projected shot volume of 220 shots and 11 percent shooting — Arvidsson's career average — that's easily 24 goals.

The drawback with Arvidsson's fantasy value is that he's very unlikely to play on the top power play unit. All the spots are already spoken for: McDavid, Draisaitl, Nugent-Hopkins, Hyman and Evan Bouchard. The Oilers don't really deploy a second unit, though I can see instances where Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman are swapped for Skinner and Arvidsson.

It's not a big deal, but it's going to prevent Arvidsson from being on the same lofty goal-scoring path as Hyman. Even if his best seasons, Arvidsson scored the vast majority of his goals at even strength, which is the Oilers' weakness relative to their special teams.

Arvidsson is currently ranked 99th in Yahoo's pre-season rankings, which means he's projected to go somewhere arounds nine and 10, and ahead of players such as the Alexis Lafreniere, Alex DeBrincat and Martin Necas. The latter three players will all likely get more power play time than Arvidsson, increasing their fantasy value, especially in leagues that count power play points.

Given randomness in hockey, this seems appropriate, but I do have the latter three players ranked higher than Arvidsson in my preliminary projections right now.

Do you think Arvidsson will score 30 goals in 2024-25?

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