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Victor Vector: How Spurs rookie Victor Wembanyama's progress is rounding into form after 5 weeks

ben rohrbach
Senior writer
·11 min read

Welcome to the Victor Wembanyama experience. Come one, come all, for there is a 7-foot-4 Frenchman who can nutmeg you off the bounce, block your 3-pointers, step back from 3, put back his own stepback in two steps and dunk on you from a standstill outside the restricted area. Behold the human cheat code.

Here, we'll track the San Antonio Spurs rookie's weekly progress relative to the most anticipated prospects of the past 50 years, using Yahoo Sports' own default fantasy basketball settings to rank their production.

But first a few words ...

It is around this time of the season that many of the most hyped prospects began to find their NBA footing. They had played 15-20 games, the equivalent of half a college or European season. They were beginning to discover how their talents could translate at the highest level, and their teammates were learning how they could amplify those talents, so long as each organization was invested in fostering a winning environment.

But the San Antonio Spurs' approach is bringing into focus an interesting NBA development. Only five of these rookies' teams won fewer than seven games to this point, and four of them are among the six most recent draft picks. Teams are bottoming out so low that it takes years to rebuild, and front offices are fine with it. Add more high-end draft picks during construction, and develop everyone on the same timeline.

It makes sense, given that rookies in the one-and-done era need so much seasoning. Why rush the process?

San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama looks to pass the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. defends in their game Sunday in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)
San Antonio Spurs center Victor Wembanyama looks to pass the ball as Denver Nuggets forward Michael Porter Jr. defends in their game Sunday in Denver. (AP Photo/David Zalubowski)

Fan bases have been groomed to accept this practice as the best way to build a contender, and it can succeed. The Oklahoma City Thunder drafted Russell Westbrook and James Harden in the years after they selected Kevin Durant, and in their second season as a trio, they formed the foundation of a 55-win conference finalist. OKC is currently running the same playbook after three more appearances in the lottery.

Except not everyone can identify talent as well as Thunder general manager Sam Presti. The Cleveland Cavaliers drafted Dajuan Wagner and Luke Jackson in the years before and after landing LeBron James, so they instead cobbled together enough veterans who could meet James on his rise to superstardom and forged a 50-win NBA finalist by his fourth season. The Los Angeles Clippers selected Eric Gordon and Al-Farouq Aminu — two bona fide NBA players — in the years before and after drafting Blake Griffin, but it wasn't until they traded both in a deal for prime Chris Paul that the team transformed into a 50-win contender.

It can work either way, but we should start wondering which path the Spurs will take on Wembanyama's ascent. Devin Vassell, Keldon Johnson and Jeremy Sochan have all shown promise as potential building blocks, but are we sure they will be on the roster when (if?) Wembanyama helms a serious playoff threat?

Wembanyama is 19 years old and (through 17 games) the same player he was last season in Europe, where he submitted as many forgettable performances as he did outstanding ones, and he inefficiently produced some impressive averages. Check out where he ranks on this list, and we can have no long-term concerns.

Still, the advanced statistics are alarming. His player efficiency rating, win shares per 48 minutes and box plus/minus are among the worst of these phenoms, and that, too, might be a product of his surroundings. The 6-foot-9 Sochan's much-discussed transition from power forward to point guard has undoubtedly been an impediment to winning. The latest numbers: The Spurs are +6.7 points per 100 meaningful possessions when Tre Jones is Wembanyama's point guard and -23.4 when he is not, according to Cleaning the Glass.

San Antonio is tying Wembanyama's first-year progress to Sochan more than feels comfortable. The good news for Spurs fans: Either path to progress — collective development or a pivot to veteran reinforcements — can lead to contention within a few short years. On the flip side, if Sochan does not develop into a winning primary playmaker, will Wembanyama's impact on winning be on hold until that position is figured out?

We will find out if it all comes out in the wash. That is what the tracker is for. Before we get started, a key:

  • Season averages: Points (FG%/3P%/FT%), rebounds, assists (turnovers), steals, blocks

  • Advanced: Player efficiency rating, true-shooting percentage, win shares per 48, box plus-minus

  • Through X games (record): Total PTS-REB-AST-STL-BLK, TO (FGA-FGM, 3PA-3PM, FTA-FTM)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week X): Default season settings

Without further ado, the Victor Vector rankings: Week 1 (16th) • Week 2 (6th) • Week 3 (6th) • Week 4 (5th) • Week 5 ...

20. Yao Ming, Houston Rockets

  • 2002-03: 13.5 PTS (50/50/81), 8.2 REB, 1.8 BLK, 1.7 AST (2.1 TO), 0.4 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.6 PER, 57.0 TS%, .176 WS/48, 2.2 BPM

  • Through 17 games (10-7): 176-99-18-4-24, 28 TO (68-105 FG, 0-0 3P, 40-57 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 318.5

19. Kevin Durant, Seattle SuperSonics

  • 2007-08: 20.3 PTS (43/29/87), 4.4 REB, 2.4 AST (2.9 TO), 1.0 STL, 0.9 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 15.8 PER, 51.9 TS%, .040 WS/48, -0.1 BPM

  • Through 17 games (3-14): 347-74-36-19-18, 58 TO (122-300 FG, 23-77 3P, 80-98 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 414

18. Patrick Ewing, New York Knicks

  • 1985-86: 20 PTS (47/0/74), 9 REB, 2.1 BLK, 2.0 AST (3.4 TO), 1.1 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 17.4 PER, 52.6 TS%, .084 WS/48, 1.1 BPM

  • Through 17 games (4-13): 314-137-28-15-28, 47 TO (118-254 FG, 0-1 3P, 78-99 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 460.95

17. Isiah Thomas, Detroit Pistons

  • 1981-82: 17 PTS (42/29/70), 7.8 AST (4.2 TO), 2.9 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.2 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 14.5 PER, 48.7 TS%, .046 WS/48, -0.8 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 358-51-134-36*-3*, 71* TO (128-283 FG, 2-14* 3P, 100-145 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 496.4

(*Some game-to-game statistics unavailable. Estimates based on season averages.)

16. Blake Griffin, Los Angeles Clippers

  • 2010-11: 22.5 PTS (51/29/64), 12.1 REB, 3.8 AST (2.7 TO), 0.8 STL, 0.5 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 21.9 PER, 54.9 TS%, .152 WS/48, 2.6 BPM

  • Through 17 games (3-14): 328-194-40-12-9, 43 TO (127-248 FG, 0-1 3P, 74-130 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 503.9

15. Allen Iverson, Philadelphia 76ers

  • 1996-97: 23.5 PTS (42/34/70), 7.5 AST (4.4 TO), 4.1 REB, 2.1 STL, 0.3 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 18 PER, 51.3 TS%, .065 WS/48, 0.9 BPM

  • Through 17 games (7-10): 323-70-99-34-7, 76 TO (107-257 FG, 30-77 3P, 79-119 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 506.6

14. Grant Hill, Detroit Pistons

  • 1994-95: 19.9 PTS (48/15/73), 6.4 REB, 5 AST (2.9 TO), 1.8 STL, 0.9 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 19 PER, 54.1 TS%, .097 WS/48, 2.0 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 313-87-67-30-18, 40 TO (112-227 FG, 3-12 3P, 86-106 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 510.35

13. Tim Duncan, San Antonio Spurs

  • 1997-98: 21.1 PTS (55/0/66), 11.9 REB, 2.7 AST (3.4 TO), 2.5 B LK, 0.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.6 PER, 57.7 TS%, .192 WS/48, 4.6 BPM

  • Through 17 games (10-7): 266-191-32-10-41, 55 TO (115-202 FG, 0-2 3P, 36-77 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 528.85

12. Hakeem Olajuwon, Houston Rockets

  • 1984-85: 20.6 PTS (54/0/61), 11.9 REB, 2.7 BLK, 1.4 AST (2.9 TO), 1.2 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 21.1 PER, 56.4 TS%, .168 WS/48, 2.1 BPM

  • Through 17 games (12-5): 298-188-22-16-38, 51 TO (122-244 FG, 0-0 3P, 54-96 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 529.2

11. Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks

  • 2018-19: 21.2 PTS (43/33/71), 7.8 REB, 6 AST (3.4 TO), 1.1 STL, 0.3 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 19.6 PER, 54.5 TS%, .101 WS/48, 3.9 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 328-118-70-15-5, 65 TO (116-256 FG, 41-107 3P, 55-71 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 536.55

10. LeBron James, Cleveland Cavaliers

  • 2003-04: 20.9 PTS (42/29/75), 5.9 AST (3.5 TO), 5.5 REB, 1.6 STL, 0.7 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 18.3 PER, 48.8 TS%, .078 WS/48, 1.7 BPM

  • Through 17 games (4-13): 298-119-109-20-12, 64 TO (116-277 FG, 15-46 3P, 51-73 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 546.1

9. Magic Johnson, Los Angeles Lakers

  • 1979-80: 18 PTS (53/23/81), 7.7 REB, 7.3 AST, 2.4 STL (4.0 TO), 0.5 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.6 PER, 60.2 TS%, .180 WS/48, 4.8 BPM

  • Through 17 games (12-5): 275-103-102-33-8, 43 TO (102-184 FG, 0-1 3P, 71-90 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 555.7

8. Chris Paul, New Orleans Hornets

  • 2005-06: 16.1 PTS (43/28/85), 7.8 AST (2.3 TO), 5.1 REB, 2.2 STL, 0.1 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.1 PER, 54.6 TS%, .178 WS/48, 5.2 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 272-95-113-34-1, 43 TO (92-215 FG, 12-48 3P, 76-92 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 561.75

7. Ralph Sampson, Houston Rockets

  • 1983-84: 21 PTS (52/25/66), 11.1 REB, 2.4 BLK, 2 AST (3.6 TO), 0.9 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.1 PER, 55.1 TS%, .108 WS/48, 0.9 BPM

  • Through 17 games (7-10): 361-204-36-10-41, 56 TO (150-280 FG, 0-1 3P, 61-89 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 617.75

6. Larry Bird, Boston Celtics

  • 1979-80: 21.3 PTS (47/41/84), 10.4 REB, 4.5 AST (3.2 TO), 1.7 STL, 0.6 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 20.5 PER, 53.8 TS%, .182 WS/48, 4.5 BPM

  • Through 17 games (13-4): 322-173-79-33-15, 62 TO (129-271 FG, 6-17 3P, 58-68 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 630.55

5. Dikembe Mutombo, Denver Nuggets

  • 1991-92: 16.6 PTS (49/0/64), 12.3 REB, 3 BLK, 2 AST (3.5 TO), 0.6 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 16.5 PER, 54.0 TS%, .086 WS/48, 0.0 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 324-239-36-14-48, 70 TO (118-254 FG, 0-0 3P, 88-128 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 634.2

4. Michael Jordan, Chicago Bulls

  • 1984-85: 28.2 PTS (52/17/85), 6.5 REB, 5.9 AST (3.5 TO), 2.4 STL, 0.8 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 25.8 PER, 59.2 TS%, .213 WS/48, 7.3 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 446-95-72-48-29, 64 TO (164-332 FG, 2-7 3P, 116-136 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 647.1

3. Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs

  • 2023-24: 19.2 PTS (43/28/82), 9.5 REB, 2.6 AST (3.6 TO), 1.3 STL, 2.6 BLK

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 17.3 PER, 52.3 TS%, -.0008 WS/48, -1.6 BPM

  • Through 17 games (3-14): 326-162-44-22-45, 61 TO (120-279 FG, 25-91 3P, 61-74 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 647.95

2. David Robinson, San Antonio Spurs

  • 1989-90: 24.3 PTS (53/0/73), 12 REB, 3.9 BLK, 2.0 AST (3.1 TO), 1.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 26.3 PER, 59.7 TS%, .241 WS/48, 6.9 BPM

  • Through 17 games (12-5): 387-218-27-29-44, 58 TO (128-232 FG, 0-0 3P, 131-185 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 693.35

1. Shaquille O'Neal, Orlando Magic

  • 1992-93: 23.4 PTS (56/0/59), 13.9 REB, 3.5 BLK, 1.9 AST (3.8 TO), 0.7 STL

  • Advanced rookie statistics: 22.9 PER, 58.4 TS%, .163 WS/48, 3.5 BPM

  • Through 17 games (8-9): 381-252-23-17-63, 70 TO (112-210 FG, 0-0 3P, 71-129 FT)

  • Victor Vector Yahoo Fantasy points (through Week 5): 706.25