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Updated ACC tiebreaker scenarios for Clemson football after Miami’s loss

chapel fowler
·4 min read

Clemson football took care of business Saturday night.

The Tigers also got some outside help in their push to qualify for the 2024 ACC championship game next month, despite no longer controlling their own destiny.

Make no mistake about it: Miami and Southern Methodist are still the clear favorites to meet in the league title game Dec. 7 at Charlotte’s Bank of America Stadium.

But the Hurricanes’ upset loss at Georgia Tech on Saturday, combined with Clemson’s win at Virginia Tech, did slightly shift the odds of which two teams will play for an automatic bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff.

Here’s a breakdown of the updated ACC standings and tiebreakers ahead of the Tigers’ final conference game at Pittsburgh on Nov. 16 (noon, ESPN).

Nov 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) runs for a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes in the fourth quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field.
Nov 9, 2024; Atlanta, Georgia, USA; Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets quarterback Haynes King (10) runs for a touchdown against the Miami Hurricanes in the fourth quarter at Bobby Dodd Stadium at Hyundai Field.

2024 ACC championship game odds

Heading into last Saturday, here’s how the website PlayoffStatus.com calculated the percentage chances of each of the top four teams in the ACC to qualify for the league championship game:

  • SMU: 89%

  • Miami: 81%

  • Pitt: 15%

  • Clemson: 9%

And here’s how those percentage chances shifted after an interesting Saturday that saw Clemson beat Virginia Tech, Miami lose at Georgia Tech and Pitt lose to Virginia:

  • SMU: 88% (percentage change of -1)

  • Miami: 65% (percentage change of -16)

  • Clemson: 33% (percentage change of +24)

  • Pitt: 7% (percentage change of -8)

SMU was idle this weekend, and the Mustangs are now the only undefeated team in the ACC at 5-0 and control their own destiny. Clemson moved up to No. 2 in the ACC standings at 6-1 (.857), and Miami dropped to third at 5-1 (.833).

Oct 26, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee during the first half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium.
Oct 26, 2024; Durham, North Carolina, USA; Southern Methodist Mustangs head coach Rhett Lashlee during the first half of the game against Duke Blue Devils at Wallace Wade Stadium.

Remaining ACC schedules

With the most recent College Football Playoff Top 25 rankings and winning percentage for each game, per ESPN’s Football Power Index, included:

No. 13 SMU (8-1, 5-0 ACC)

Saturday, Nov. 16: vs. Boston College, 87.1% chance to win

Saturday, Nov. 23: at Virginia, 79.1% chance to win

Saturday, Nov. 30: vs. Cal, 77.8% chance to win

No. 23 Clemson (7-2, 6-1 ACC)

Saturday, Nov. 16: at Pitt, 69.2% chance to win

No. 4 Miami (9-1, 5-1 ACC)

Saturday, Nov. 23: vs. Wake Forest, 95.8% chance to win

Saturday, Nov. 30: at Syracuse, 83.8% chance to win

Nov 9, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) scrambles looking for a receiver while being pursued by Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Mansoor Delane (4) during the third quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images
Nov 9, 2024; Blacksburg, Virginia, USA; Clemson Tigers quarterback Cade Klubnik (2) scrambles looking for a receiver while being pursued by Virginia Tech Hokies cornerback Mansoor Delane (4) during the third quarter at Lane Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Brian Bishop-Imagn Images

What must happen for Clemson to advance?

First things first: Clemson must win at Pittsburgh on Saturday to keep its ACC championship game hopes alive. Coach Dabo Swinney’s Tigers are currently a 9.5-point betting favorite against the Panthers, who have lost two games in a row.

From there, Clemson essentially needs Miami to lose one of its last two conference games or for SMU to lose two of its last three conference games.

It’s an understandable long shot, given how well those two have played.

If all three teams win out, Miami (7-1) would still jump Clemson (7-1) for the second spot because it would have a 4-0 record among common opponents with Clemson, while Clemson would be 3-1 because of its loss to Louisville.

But a second loss would put the Hurricanes at 6-2 at best, and a game behind a 7-1 Clemson in the final conference standings.

In SMU’s case, the Mustangs could lose to Boston College or Cal and still make the ACC title game over Clemson because they would be 5-0 among common opponents with Clemson, while the Tigers would be 4-1 because of their Louisville loss.

And if SMU lost to Virginia (a common opponent), Clemson and SMU would both be 4-1 in “pod” play. But the Mustangs, a first-year expansion team formerly of the AAC, would likely still have the edge because of their win over Louisville.

ACC tiebreaker policy dictates that if two teams have the same winning percentage against common opponents, the next step to possibly break the tie is ranking those common opponents by order of finish in the ACC and going one by one from best to worst. This rewards which team won against the better common opponent(s).

Even with a loss among common opponents, SMU’s win over Louisville (currently in the top half of the ACC standings at 4-2) would likely break a tie against the Tigers.

But if the Mustangs lose twice in their last three games, they would drop to 6-2 at best and fall behind a 7-1 Clemson in the conference standings.

If Clemson beats Pittsburgh on Saturday (in the third-to-last week of the regular season), all of these potential outcomes could extend to the final week of the regular season, when Miami and SMU both play their final conference games.