Updated ACC championship game scenarios for Clemson, Miami and SMU football teams

The ACC football championship race has entered its final two weeks.

Clemson still has a chance of qualifying – but needs some help.

The Tigers won at Pitt on Saturday to finish 7-1 in league play, their only blemish a home loss to Louisville on Nov. 2. But since the Cardinals are a common opponent among Clemson and the other two teams in the ACC title race (SMU and Miami), that loss is extra damaging to the Tigers’ chances.

Here are updated ACC clinching scenarios for No. 13 SMU, No. 8 Miami and No. 17 Clemson entering Week 13, the second to last week of the regular season.

As a reminder, making the league title game is of extra importance this year because the ACC champion will receive an automatic bid to the 12-team College Football Playoff and be in strong position for a first-round bye into the quarterfinals, too.

SMU clinching scenarios

SMU (6-0 ACC) can clinch a spot with a win at Virginia on Saturday.

If the Mustangs beat Virginia, their worst possible record in ACC play would be 7-1. In that instance, even if SMU were to lose its final ACC game at home to Cal, it would still advance to the title game in Charlotte because of league tiebreaker policy.

If SMU, Miami and Clemson all finish league play 7-1, Miami and SMU would advance because they have a better winning percentage among the two common opponents they share with Clemson (Louisville and Florida State).

SMU is a nine-point road favorite at Virginia, per VegasInsider.com.

Clemson clinching scenarios

Clemson (7-1 ACC) can only clinch if Miami loses to Wake Forest this weekend.

The Tigers lost control of their own destiny when they lost at home to Louisville and now need to bank on the teams above them slipping up.

Miami was idle last week after suffering its first ACC loss at Georgia Tech on Nov. 9. The Hurricanes are currently a 24-point home favorite against Wake Forest.

Clemson will take on The Citadel, an FCS opponent, at home this weekend before hosting No. 19 South Carolina in their annual rivalry game next Saturday.

Miami clinching scenarios

Miami (5-1 ACC) cannot clinch this week.

But if the Hurricanes lose at home to the Demon Deacons, Clemson would clinch one of two spots in the ACC championship game. A Miami loss combined with an SMU win would fully eliminate the Hurricanes from contention.

Explaining ACC tiebreaker policy

In the instance of a three-way for first place in the ACC – with Clemson, Miami and SMU all finishing 7-1 in conference play – why would Miami and SMU advance?

That comes down to the third step of the ACC’s seven-step tiebreaker to break a tie when three (or more) teams are tied for the highest winning percentage in conference play. The tiebreaker policy was approved last May ahead of the ACC’s first divisionless football season.

Clemson, Miami and SMU do not play each other this season, so the first two steps of the three-team tiebreaker (which involve head-to-head results) are a moot point.

Those three teams do have two common opponents, though, and their winning percentage against those two teams would break a three-team tie. SMU and Miami are both 2-0 against Florida State and Louisville, while Clemson is 1-1.

There was some confusion surrounding how the tiebreaker policy might be applied if SMU had lost to Virginia (a common opponent with Clemson).

But an ACC spokesman confirmed to The State that in the instance of a three-way tie at 7-1, Clemson would “lose” the tiebreaker and SMU and Miami would advance.

Why? The three-team (or more) tiebreaker judges all teams as a group.

In other words, if Miami and SMU have a better winning percentage against common opponents than Clemson, those two teams will advance to the title game. – as opposed to the ACC continuing to apply the tiebreaker to determine the top seed between Miami and SMU, and then applying a second tiebreaker between the loser of that tiebreaker and Clemson to determine the No. 2 seed.

So, in the instance of all three teams finishing 7-1, no tiebreaker past winning percentage against common opponents would matter.

A secondary tiebreaker?

In the instance of a three-way tie at 7-1, a spokesman said that Miami and SMU would advance over Clemson and then be subject to a secondary tiebreaker process to determine which team is the No. 1 seed for the game and which team is the No. 2.

That tiebreaker would likely come down to Step 5, combined winning percentage of conference opponents, since SMU and Miami do not play each other and would have the same record against common opponents (2-0) in this scenario.

The distinction between No. 1 and No. 2 seed isn’t major, though, a spokesman said, and would not change the championship game drastically.

It would only impact minor factors, such as which team is the designated home team, jersey selection and who calls the coin toss.