UNC football first look: Why, analytically speaking, Tar Heels need to end losing streak

North Carolina, like many football teams, relies on analytics in game-planning and in-game decisions.

Fourth-down decisions, for example: The Tar Heels twice tried conversions on fourth-and-short plays Saturday inside the Pittsburgh 10-yard line rather than take field goals and the points. They twice came up short in the 34-24 loss to the Panthers.

The Heels, in losing their third straight game, were 2-for-6 on fourth-down plays. Their last offensive snap ended in a fourth-down sack of quarterback Jacolby Criswell, tackled as he attempted to roll out.

UNC coach Mack Brown explained analytics almost always call for an offensive play in fourth-and-short situations — even at the UNC 33 in the third quarter. Brown ordered up a punt that time.

“They always say go for fourth-and-1. I mean that’s 100 percent,” Brown said. “That’s just the world analytics lives in. We take it as a suggestion. We don’t take it as an answer.”

The Heels went for it in the fourth quarter from the Pitt 8. The problem: Omarion Hampton was stopped for no gain on fourth-and-1 with 9:08 left. Pitt then used up seven minutes before getting a clinching field goal.

All of that is something else to consider this week as the Heels gear up for another ACC game — against Georgia Tech at Kenan Stadium. The Yellow Jackets (4-2, 2-2 ACC) handed Duke its first loss Saturday, grinding out a 24-14 win over the Blue Devils at Bobby Dodd Stadium in Atlanta.

A year ago, the Heels were looking for a quick bounceback game against the Jackets in Atlanta after a shocking loss to Virginia at Kenan that was UNC’s first loss of the season. Instead, Georgia Tech thoroughly dominated the fourth quarter, scoring 22 points in taking a 46-42 win.

Georgia Tech finished with 348 yards rushing in the game. A staggering 246 yards came in the fourth quarter, which former defensive coordinator Gene Chizik called “catastrophic.”

This season, it’s Geoff Collins heading up the UNC defense. The Heels’ defensive coordinator was the head coach at Georgia Tech for four years before being fired after four games in the 2022 season.

Collins will have more on his mind this week than personal redemption after Pitt piled up 520 yards in total offense, passing for 381. The Panthers were 9-of-16 on third-down conversions and also converted their only fourth-down try.

Analytically, from UNC’s perspective, that’s a problem.

Player to watch: Haynes King

A part of the Heels’ fourth-down collapse at Georgia Tech last year was allowing quarterback Haynes King to motor 52 yards through the UNC defense on a keeper, setting up the go-ahead touchdown.

King was named the national player of the week after throwing for four touchdowns and finishing with 377 of Tech’s 635 yards in total offense — 287 passing and 90 rushing.

King starred again Saturday against Duke. The Yellow Jackets fell behind in the second half but King engineered a comeback, throwing for two TDs in the fourth quarter.

King, who transferred to Georgia Tech from Texas A&M, is plenty mobile at 6-3 and 215 pounds. So is Eli Holstein, the Pitt quarterback who tormented the Heels Saturday.

UNC did not sack Holstein and had just four quarterback hurries. The Heels may need more pressure on King.

Key game matchup

After last year’s game, here’s an easy guess: UNC’s defensive front vs Georgia Tech’s offensive front.

The Yellow Jackets mashed the Tar Heels along the line in Atlanta in the fourth quarter, a memory many of the Heels probably have not fully shaken. Talk about a blow to your collective pride and defensive psyche — 246 rushing yards given up in a quarter.

Against Duke, Tech running back Jamal Haynes had 128 yards on 19 carries and was quick to point out it was the work of his offensive line that got it done in the 24-14 win. On his 22nd birthday, he may have given his O-line guys a lot of the cake presented to him after the game.

Betting odds

The early lines out of Vegas have Georgia Tech a 3.5-point favorite and have set the over/under at 57.5.

How to watch

The game will be televised on The CW. Streaming options include fubo TV, Hulu + Live TV, YouTibe TV, DIRECTV Stream.

North Carolina (3-3, 0-2 ACC) vs Georgia Tech (4-2, 2-2)

When: Saturday, 12 p.m.

Where: Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill.

TV: The CW.

Series history: Georgia Tech has won the past three games in the series and five of six, including he past two at Kenan Stadium. UNC and Georgia Tech have played 58 times dating to 1915. UNC is 22-33-3 overall but 14-12-2 at Kenan.