MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC on ESPN 49.

UFC on ESPN 49 takes place Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. The card airs on ESPN and streams on ESPN+.

Holly Holm (15-6 MMA, 8-6 UFC)

Mayra Bueno Silva (10-2-1 MMA, 5-2-1 UFC)

Point of interest: Striking in the small cage

The main event for UFC on ESPN 49 features a bantamweight battle between two women who are familiar when it comes to fighting inside the smaller octagon of The APEX.

A stick-and-move stylist at heart, Holm demonstrates the disciplined footwork and distance management that’s needed to play in her comfort zone, just outside of range. Utilizing lateral movement until finding an opening to her liking, Holm will engage in strafing runs, throwing a variety of pre-programmed combinations like a finely tuned machine.

A consistency of patterns that she carried over from boxing, Holm will usually circle to her left to reset, and move to her right when attempting to achieve attack angles and counters.

Holm has attempted to get more aggressive at closer ranges as of late, as well as incorporate more traditional leg kicks into repertoire to complement the “ponies” that Mike Winkeljohn is constantly calling for from her corner. That said, Holm will need to be mindful when throwing everything from low kicks to combos given the counters that will be coming her way.

Enter Mayra Bueno Silva.

Initially hailing from the Chute Boxe team in Sao Paulo, Brazil, Silva stepped onto the UFC scene with a fully-fledged muay Thai game in tow.
Traditionally plodding through space behind a high guard, Silva seems to have a natural aptitude for the art of eight limbs.

From distance, Silva does well at working her ranges by consistently targeting the legs and body of her opposition. And when opponents try to push back into her with offense, Silva is not shy about throwing crashing counters to meet them in the pocket.

When feeling in stride, Silva will pull out spinning elbows and sidekicks with some surprising accuracy, but the Brazilian arguably does her best work in the clinch. Aside from hard elbows to the face, Silva compliments her bodywork at range by landing brutal body knees any time she has the space or control of a collar tie.

Nevertheless, Silva will still need to respect the skills of Holm here given that the American has preferred to do battle in this space as of late.

Point of interest: Potential grappling threats

As alluded to in the previous section, grappling entanglements will likely be tricky navigation for parties this Saturday.

Despite being tied with Ronda Rousey for armbars scored in the UFC, Silva has shown that she’s not beyond being bested in the wrestling department.

To Silva’s credit, she has shown marked improvement in her wrestling skills since moving shop to American Top Team in South Florida. That said, I can’t help but wonder how the former flyweight will stack up to the size and strength of Holm.

Embracing her point-scoring sensibilities inside of closed quarters as of late, Holm has proven that she’s not afraid to get down and dirty in the grappling department.

Deceptively strong in the clinch, Holm works well off overhooks and underhooks, framing with her forearms as she looks to break away (something that proved effective against past judoka foes like Ronda Rousey).

Against fighters like Cris Cyborg and Raquel Pennington, Holm showed that she has more than just defensive framing and underhook awareness, engaging and controlling clinches on her terms throughout the contest. And against more recent competition like Irene Aldana and Yana Santos, Holm displayed improved takedown chains and sensible work from topside, showing the savvy and wherewithal to transition through phases.

Still, I’m not so sure how much she’ll be looking to grapple with a Brazilian jiu-jitsu brown belt like Silva – at least early in the rounds.

A fighter on the verge of breaking submission records in women’s MMA, Silva has shown the fearless opportunism that’s seen in so many fan favorites. From crafty armbars to submission chains that lead to position-altering leg locks, Silva has proven to be a dangerous customer on the mat.

Now training under the famed Marcos da Matta (“Parrumpinha”), Silva displayed much more methodical jiu-jitsu in her last outing opposite Lina Lansberg. Regardless of what positions Silva ends up in, I’ll be curious to see if her trends of improvement continue to show themselves here.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and the public are currently favoring the American, listing Holm -184 and Silva +142 via FanDuel.

Considering that Holm is both the more popular and proven product, no one should be shocked if Holm closes as a near 2-1 favorite by fight night.
Aside from age arguably being less of a factor in these divisions given the potential athletic and skills gulfs that can exist, Holm, even at 40-plus years of age, can still toss most women around when she needs to.

Holm will also have her noted striking style to lean back on, which is a style that has troubled Silva before.

That said, I still find myself leaning the other way in this spot.

Silva may have lost to similar stylists like Manon Fiorot, but the Brazilian made a solid account for herself by getting a lot done that the scorecards don’t acknowledge.

Don’t get me wrong: Silva definitely lost that fight to Fiorot, but I think that the ideas she showed in her approach and the strength in her finishes to rounds can be somewhat instructive to what we might see this Saturday – particularly in later rounds.

As I pointed out in last week’s pre-fight analysis of Alexandre Pantoja, Silva appears to be an aggressive athlete who tends to need their pockets to recoup energy. Because of this, fighters with these types of constitutions tend to get unfairly labeled as “gassers” and so forth.

Not only has Silva actually gone five rounds in her regional career before, but I believe that her aggressive style could build out nicely over the course of a 25-minute fight (especially when you consider how much the scoring criteria, at least in theory, rewards aggressive, finish-hungry fighters).

When looking at Holm’s history, I also suspect that Silva’s propensity to both crash and counter with her right hand could pay some serious dividends for her.

From Holm’s first fight with Pennington to her defeats at the hands of Valentina Shevchenko, Germaine de Randamie and Amanda Nunes, the counter right hand has been well known kryptonite for the former bantamweight champ in both boxing and MMA.

Regardless of whether she wins or loses, I see Holm getting off to a solid start in this fight. But if she can’t maintain her preferred range in the smaller octagon of the Apex, then I believe that Silva is just too dangerous of an opportunist for her to be stuck in a cage with for 25 minutes at this point in her career.

It’s not a popular pick, but I’ll take Silva to steadily break down Holm with leg and bodywork that forces Holm to grapple herself into a submission loss by Round 4.

Prediction: Silva inside the distance

Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie