UFC betting, odds: How to bet Marvin Vettori-Jared Cannonier main event

UFC 289 was everything. Casual fans, sharp bettors and even historians of the sport all left last weekend’s pay-per-view with the feeling they witnessed something special. We got fireworks from a featherweight scrap, one the greatest of all time laying down her gloves, and a record-setting first-round finish to set up a highly anticipated rematch for the lightweight title. The emotions are still fresh, but it’s on to the next card: UFC Vegas 75 at The Apex.

Top middleweight contenders Marvin Vettori and Jared Cannonier will square off in the five-round main event. Both fighters fell short in their attempts to pry the belt from Israel Adesanya, but a win here will create a clear path for a second crack at UFC gold. Robert Whittaker or Dricus Du Plessis will have the next shot at Adesanya, but Saturday night’s victor should be next in line.

After opening as a slight underdog (+125), support for Cannonier has moved the odds in his direction to even money. Without a clear favorite, let’s take a swing at a few different ways we can bet on this highly competitive main event.

Marvin Vettori (-120) vs. Jared Cannonier (+100)

Here we go. It’s the pressure of Vettori versus the power of Cannonier. Vettori (9-4-1 UFC) doesn’t have dynamite in his hands or a lethal submission game. He is a hard-hat and lunchpail fighter who thrives off fearlessly moving forward with little regard for consequence. To his credit, it hasn’t backfired yet. His rock-solid durability has never failed him, even up against the promotion's most dangerous strikers. No man has stopped Vettori inside the Octagon, including Adesanya, who has fought him for eight total rounds. The Italian Dream’s last six fights were decided by the scorecards, and I will discuss below on why that opens up some opportunities to take some big swings in the prop market.

Cannonier (9-6 UFC) is a finisher. The former heavyweight has fight-ending power in his right hook and can lower the boom with his legs as well. Those are his primary weapons to stop Vettori cold in his tracks if he advances through the pocket recklessly. However, the leg kicks come at a cost, as they could easily open the door for Vettori to get this fight to the ground.

This is an odd fight. Despite me favoring Cannonier as a fighter, I think Vettori is going to end up getting his hand raised. The line movement toward Cannonier is influenced by Vettori’s lackluster outing against Roman Dolidze, which he is fully capable of bouncing back from at age 29. Cannonier is 39 and has started showing signs of decline. It’s not the power that goes first, it’s the reaction time. I backed Cannonier versus Strickland and remember getting frustrated at his hesitancy. He has a tendency to be overly patient, and that's going to be a problem against pressure fighters. The impact of a 10-year age gap is more likely to get magnified over five rounds unless Cannonier can spark Vettori early. Based on the history of Vettori’s chin, I will have a position on this going the distance, and the busier fighter getting the nod on the scorecards. Bet: Marvin Vettori by decision (+125)

4.5 rounds: Over (-200) or under (+160)?

We can learn a lot by looking at the odds through a different lens. The total strongly implies this fight goes to the scorecards. Cannonier holds most of the finishing equity that’s priced into the probability (34%) that this ends under 4.5 rounds. While the moneyline odds are set close to a coin flip, it feels like a decision would favor Vettori much more than the odds indicate. The value, whether its on the under or the Vettori decision prop, boils down to how you see the fight playing out. In this fight more than most, how the judges interpret and apply the scoring criteria will play a critical role in the result, particularly in regards to damage versus volume. Vettori’s cardio, mixed with the combination of activity, volume and control, usually plays very well for the judges. The big moments with the most damaging blows will belong to Cannonier. For those that feel strongly about the over, you are better off wagering on the fight ends via decision at -160, or some more granular props backing each fighter to win by points.

I’d rather play Vettori at +125 to get the nod from the judges, or even take a shot for him to win by split or majority decision at +800. The odds on Cannonier are +325/+1100 in the same markets. In a pick ’em fight, I have no problem extracting more value by betting the judges end up with conflicting scorecards.