MMA Junkie analyst Dan Tom breaks down the UFC’s top bouts. Today, we look at the main event for UFC 289.

UFC 289 takes place Saturday at Rogers Arena in Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. The main card airs on pay-per-view following prelims on ESPN and ESPN+.

Amanda Nunes (22-5 MMA, 15-2 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’8″ Age: 35 Weight: 155 lbs. Reach: 69″

• Last fight: Decision win over Julianna Peña (July 30, 2022)

• Camp: Lioness Studio (Florida)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/muay Thai

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ UFC bantamweight and featherweight champion
+ Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt
+ Judo brown belt
+ 13 KO victories
+ 4 submission wins
+ 14 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Dangerous right hand
^ From orthodox or southpaw
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Strong inside the clinch
+ Good wrestling ability
+ Works well from topside

Irene Aldana (14-6 MMA, 7-4 UFC)

Staple info:

• Height: 5’9″ Age: 35 Weight: 135 lbs. Reach: 68.5″

• Last fight: KO win over Macy Chiasson (Sept. 10, 2022)

• Camp: Lobo MMA Gym (Jalisco, Mexico)

• Stance/striking style: Orthodox/kickboxing

• Risk management: Good

Supplemental info:
+ 8 KO victories
+ 3 submission wins
+ 9 first-round finishes
+ KO power
+ Consistent pace and pressure
+ Good lateral movement
+ High-volume striker
^ Puts together punches well
+ Accurate crosses and hooks
^ Coming forward and off the counter
+ Hard leg kicks
+ Active inside of the clinch
^ Defensively and offensively
+ Underrated submission grappling

Point of interest: Striking parity

The main event for UFC 289 features a bantamweight title fight at 135 pounds between two women with some size parity on their feet.

Although Irene Aldana does not come from as extensive of a combat sports background as her opponent does, the Mexican fighter appears to be a natural athlete who picks things up quickly. Displaying a clear interest in the striking side of things, Aldana embodies a lot of the boxing-centric qualities to her style that one would stereotype with her region.

Aldana can sometimes have a bit of a preset presence about her, often leaning into a lateral shuffle that she uses to reset off exchanges. It may take the 35-year-old a round or so to get her rhythm, but Aldana shows a solid ability to string her strikes together, especially when she can get her crosses and up-jab variations working symbiotically together.

Aldana has also made measurable efforts to add kicks into her repertoire, attaching hard leg strikes that have paid dividends in recent contests. I suspect that Aldana’s left hooks – both to the body and off the counter – could pay some potential dividends in this fight, but she’ll need to be mindful of the checking shots from Amanda Nunes.

A fighter who came storming aggressively out of the gates as a brawler with a grappling base, Nunes has had to refine both her striking and her natural aptitude for combat. The sitting champion has trained in boxing since she was 16 years of age but has incorporated more muay Thai throughout her MMA career.

Initially forcing her way into exchanges (and producing quick results in doing so), Nunes has slowly sharpened her skills, smartly adjusting her pressuring approach. Most notably, Nunes has improved her footwork, circling just outside of range as opposed to rushing right in.

Intelligently circling off jabs or taking the appropriate angles, the double champ has been able to improve her distance management, striking technique and shot selection – making the power coming off of her frame more potent in the process.

Nunes has also proven to use her jab much more efficiently to set up her crosses and hooks, as well as utilizing it as a check to either the head or body to help exit exchanges safely. But after re-focusing her camp with her old coach Roger Krahl, Nunes was able to unveil a new southpaw stance in her last outing opposite Juliana Peña.

Nunes mainly used the stance to stymie Peña’s jab and approaches with a checking lead hand, which is something we haven’t seen Aldana have to consistently answer.

Aldana does have a five-round sample size opposite Holly Holm, but Holm seldom uses lead hooks despite her southpaw savvy. Should Nunes look to bring back that stance here, then I’ll be curious to see how much she was able to add to that part of her game this Saturday.

Point of interest: Potential grappling threats

Considering the champion’s on-paper edge in the grappling department, no one should be shocked to see Nunes attempt to take this party to the floor.

Coming from a base in judo (where she holds a brown belt), the clinch has traditionally been a space that Nunes finds comfort operating within. The 35-year-old Brazilian protects her hips like second nature and is not afraid to attack with strikes or takedowns of her own.

Nevertheless, I still suspect that Nunes’ improved reactive shots and takedown chains will be the best takedown tools for her to lean on given Aldana’s strength in tie-ups.

Aldana is scrappy and hard to pin down in the first place, but she isn’t exactly unfamiliar with fighters trying to grapple her.

Aldana seems to have shored up a lot of her first-layer takedown defense, both in the open and against the cage. She appears to understand the value of underhooks, hip positioning, and the spread of her stance along the fence line.

Nevertheless, Aldana is not beyond being taken down on second or third attempts and will need to be on her best behavior if she finds herself on her back.

Nunes is a legitimate Brazilian jiu-jitsu black belt who has proven to be a nightmare whenever working from topside, demonstrating both brutal ground striking and submission savvy.

Still, Nunes did show a couple of lapses in concentration in her rematches with both Germaine de Randamie and Julianna Peña that put her in some briefly precarious positions – something that Aldana could replicate if she’s not careful.

Despite being devoid of any noteworthy grappling accolades, Aldana has been actively working on strengthening her ground game since her days on the Invicta FC scene.

The Mexican fighter may have gotten overzealous with submission attempts from bottom against Raquel Pennington (something the judges don’t tend to reward), but has otherwise shown solid savvy and understanding in transition – so I suggest leaving some room to be surprised.

Point of interest: Odds and opinions

The oddsmakers and public are siding with the sitting champion, listing Nunes -350 and Aldana +255 via FanDuel.

Even though the line opened a bit wide for my liking, I obviously don’t disagree with who the designated favorite is. Not only is Nunes deservedly considered the women’s GOAT by most, but she also wields legitimate pathways to win both on the feet and on the floor.

Aside from her ability to break up the action with level-changing takedowns, she also possesses the outlet of a southpaw stance to help stymie Aldana’s approaches.

As seen in her fights with southpaws like Holm or Macy Chiasson, Aldana appeared to have trouble when it came to counter left hands. Nunes didn’t start countering with her left confidently until a few rounds into her last fight with Peña, but I suspect that her coaches and company have worked hard to help her further flesh out her striking from that stance.

Still, both Aldana and her camp have shown improvements when it comes to preparing for southpaws since her loss to Holm.

Aldana’s teammate, Alexa Grasso, for example, did a good job of studying Valentina Shevchenko’s game en route to cracking her armor in an upset for the flyweight title. And Aldana, who is coming off a crazy fight-ending finish opposite Chiasson, demonstrated much more comfort when it came to working through the range of an open-stance pairing.

Instead of constantly selling out for the outside angle (and circling herself in the process), Aldana kept composed and was able to sneak in right hands with regularity, often countering from an inside angle.

However, even when finishing fights in the first round, Aldana has typically been subject to some slow starts, which could bode badly against a fast starter like Nunes.

That said, if Nunes isn’t able to get Aldana out of there early, then she runs the risk of finding herself in a dogfight with a fighter who can match her in durability and physicality. Even in fights where Nunes appeared to somewhat cruise on her newfound cardio, she still seemed to suffer from lapses of concentration that almost cost her late in championship contests.

Add in Nunes’ self-admitted retirement talk, and I find myself wanting to take a flier on the underdog here.

Nunes is definitely the safe pick and rightful favorite, but we’ve seen this story play out multiple times before. Whether we’re looking at Aldana’s teammates upset over Shevchenko at UFC 285 or T.J. Dillashaw stepping in to upset Renan Barao back at UFC 173, long title reigns often equal a long line of hungry up-and-comers who are studying your game.

It’s a pick that won’t win me any popularity contests, but I’ll take Aldana to survive the storm and turn this into a high-paced affair, eventually securing an armlock on a desperate Nunes in Round 4.

Prediction: Aldana inside the distance

For more on the card, visit MMA Junkie’s event hub for UFC 289.

Story originally appeared on MMA Junkie