Tyler Reddick zips to top of Bristol Dirt Race oddsboard

Tyler Reddick isn‘t sneaking up on anyone in this year‘s edition of the Food City Dirt Race at Bristol Motor Speedway (Sun., 7 p.m. ET, FS1, PRN and SiriusXM NASCAR Radio).

Reddick, then in the No. 8 Richard Childress Racing Chevrolet, went into last year‘s race at a modestly-priced +1400 odds to win. Jim Sannes, a quantitative NASCAR betting and fantasy analyst at numberFire, told NASCAR.com a year ago that he had Reddick circled as a potential play. He went on to lead 99 laps, including the 249th of the 250-lap event. Under the white flag and on his way to victory, he was spun out by Chase Briscoe, allowing Kyle Busch to pass them both and steal the checkers.

RELATED; Updated weekend schedule | Briscoe reflects on last year’s wild finish

As any gambler knows, not all good bets turn out to be winners, and anyone holding a Reddick ticket that day suffered a classic bad beat. But for bettors expecting a repeat performance on the short dirt track this year, Reddick‘s price is far more expensive.

At the Westgate SuperBook in Las Vegas, oddsmaker Ed Salmons opened Reddick at +600 in the outright market, and even that price — while far shorter than the driver‘s number last year — proved too cheap for the betting market‘s tastes.

A respected bettor placed a $2,000 wager on Reddick at +600 odds, prompting a move to +450 at the SuperBook. That price makes Reddick — now piloting the No. 45 23XI Racing Toyota — the betting favorite, surpassing Kyle Larson and Christopher Bell.

Here are odds from three prominent sportsbooks on Sunday‘s top contenders:

New Ride, Same Driver

While Reddick has changed teams since last year‘s dominant run on the Bristol dirt, the combination of driver skill, solid equipment, and a track that suits his style have him at the top of the oddsboard.

“The high side was the preferred groove (in last year‘s race), and that obviously fits certain guys,” Salmons said earlier this week after hanging his opening numbers. “When you think of the high line, you think of Larson, you think of Redick — they’re the first two that come to mind.”

Salmons also has high expectations for the 23XI team, thanks to its alliance with Joe Gibbs Racing.

“Bell was plenty fast last year in the Gibbs car at the dirt race,” he said, “so I would be shocked if Reddick isn‘t fast.”

Usual Suspects

This marks the third straight Bristol dirt race for which Larson and Bell have opened as the first and second betting favorites, respectively.

Last year, Larson led 27 laps and won Stage 1, before finishing fourth. Bell, while never leading the field, ran near the front all race, coming in third in Stage 1, second in Stage 2, and finishing seventh.

A strategic tweak should benefit the favorites this time around.

“The pit strategy confused a lot of the better guys (last year),” Salmons observed. “The right strategy last year was to pit after the first stage, and that was it for the race. A lot of guys waited till after the second stage, so they lost a ton of track position. …

“(Bell) and Larson had the bad strategy. They both pitted after the second stage, so they entered the Final Stage in the twenties. It‘s hard to make up that much ground, especially with all the cautions.”

Salmons also maintains that performance on the Bristol pavement translates to performance on the Bristol dirt, another plus for Bell.

“Bristol’s one of his better tracks on the pavement,” Salmons said.

BETMGM ODDS: See full list of odds for Bristol Dirt

Looking for Longshots

Similar to last year, Sannes was planning to take a wait-and-see approach before investing too heavily in the Dirt Race. There was plenty of information to be gleaned from Friday night‘s practice — until it was called due to weather. His model shows value in the outright market on Ross Chastain at +2000 and Martin Truex Jr. at +2500, but with no practice to confirm, Sannes is inclined to stay away.

The SuperBook saw early money come in on a few longshots, causing Salmons to move Ricky Stenhouse Jr. from a +3000 opener to +2000, and Truex from +2500 to +2000.

Ryan Preece has also been on some bettors‘ radar.

“The guy they bet every week on these short tracks is Ryan Preece,” Salmons revealed, “100-to-1 to 80-to-1 (this week). It’s like they feel obliged to bet him every time.”

Sannes, meanwhile, is eyeing some longshots to finish in the top 10 — Ty Gibbs and Erik Jones, specifically.

Sannes‘ simulations give Gibbs a 29.8% chance for a top-10 finish, and while the +430 odds available earlier in the week are long gone, 29.8% translates into +236 — FanDuel is dealing +380 as of this Friday writing.

“It’s concerning that he hasn’t run on dirt in Cup, but he did have a pair of dirt-track runner-up finishes in ARCA in 2021,” Sannes said of Gibbs in a direct message. “I do think his good run at Richmond matters because Bristol has raced more like a slick track with tire degradation than a dirt track.”

As for Jones, the 9.1% chance for a top 10 that Sannes‘ model suggests is on the cusp of the +1000 odds offered at FanDuel. Still, it‘s a bet that may be worth a couple of dollars.

“He scored stage points in 2021 and finished eighth,” Sannes recalls. “We’ve also seen him run well in Darlington, and I view that as a positive due to how slick it can be. His top-10 odds for me are just a smidge above his implied odds of 9.1%, but I think the model may be a smidge too low on him.”

Marcus DiNitto is Managing Editor at Gaming Today. He‘s been covering sports business for 25 years and sports betting for 12. NASCAR is among the many sports Marcus enjoys betting but often loses on. Follow him on Twitter; do not bet his picks.