Trying to make sense of TCU’s collapse vs. UCF in the Big 12 opener

It’s still difficult to make sense of what happened Saturday night in TCU’s shocking 35-34 loss to UCF in the Big 12 opener.

The Horned Frogs dominated the game for almost three quarters, leading 28-7 and 31-13 at different points in the second half, but somehow TCU let KJ Jefferson and Central Florida outscore them 22-3 in a span of about 20 minutes of game time. It left a half-empty Amon G. Carter Stadium stunned as a statement win turned into an alarming loss.

The game against UCF was always going to be the first revealing moment for TCU this season with the first two opponents, Stanford and Long Island, being expected victories.

So what was revealed in Saturday’s shocker? What have we learned about the Horned Frogs? The most pressing takeaway has to be this question: Does TCU have a closing problem?

In 2022 it helped that TCU had over a half-dozen NFL Draft picks and a Heisman contender at quarterback, but beyond the talent on that roster was that the group knew how to win games.

Making the key stop defensively, overcoming double-digit deficits and being able to put together winning drives late in the fourth quarter was a hallmark of that team.

But while successfully closing out games was a strength in Sonny Dykes’ first season, it now looks like a glaring weakness, which doesn’t bode well for conference play in a league where all the teams are similar to each other. Think about last season, when all five of TCU’s wins were by at least three possessions.

Now think about the close games they lost to Texas, West Virginia and Colorado. The same issues that plagued TCU in those games, popped up again in the second half against the Knights.

TCU’s new defense under Andy Avalos started the game tremendously. The Horned Frogs were flying around, delivering hits on Jefferson and running backs alike.

It was shaping up to be arguably the best defensive performance by a Dykes team since the win at Texas in 2022, but the second half collapse was a reminder that it’s going to take a longer than a few months to completely fix TCU’s defense.

The Knights averaged 8.4 yards per play in the second half and while there were a few chunk plays in the air, most of those yards were picked up on the ground. And to make matters worse, UCF didn’t even feel the need to adjust its gameplan after falling behind three scores.

“I don’t think they did anything differently at all,” Dykes said after being asked about potential second half adjustments by UCF. “They ran exactly the same plays they did in the first half in the second and that’s what running the football does for you.”

There was some window dressing by UCF on offense, like motion and running run-pass-options to freeze the linebackers before handing it off, but ultimately this was simply the Knights lining up and using their physicality to snatch a game they didn’t have control of until the final 60 seconds.

With Ollie Gordon, Devin Neal and Utah still remaining on the schedule, this won’t be the first time the Horned Frogs will be challenged by an elite rushing attack. The fact that TCU failed in this test isn’t completely on the defense.

The defense did its job and got the offense the ball back with under five minutes remaining in the game and the Horned Frogs maintaining a 34-28 lead. TCU ran three straight passing plays and was unable to pick up the first down.

The play calling in that scenario was in an indictment of a TCU rushing attack that only managed 58 yards on 17 attempts. And yes, the Horned Frogs piled up over 400 passing yards, went 5-for-5 in the red zone and converted 10 of 15 third down attempts, but we already knew that a Kendal Briles’ offense can put up yards and points.

The question remains: can the offense produce when it matters the most? It doesn’t matter how many yards you produce if you can’t do it in the fourth quarter.

It’s hard to have confidence in that answer being yes when the run game ranks near the bottom of the Big 12. Only Iowa State and Colorado are averaging less rushing yards per game than the Horned Frogs.

It’s a perplexing predicament as the offensive line has earned passing grades with its pass protection. The offensive line has been good at holding its ground against rushers and giving Josh Hoover time, but the task of physically moving bodies out of the way remains a weakness for an offensive line that was put together through the transfer portal.

Dykes didn’t have immediate answers to how TCU can fix the issues up front and find more balance.

“We gotta go in and look at it,” Dykes said. “Part of it was that we had so much success throwing the football, but we’ve got to do a better job of establishing the run game.”

As concerning as the final quarter and a half was, it’s still important to maintain some perspective. The Horned Frogs were always unlikely to go 12-0 and there’s still plenty of football to be played.

The next three games for TCU, at SMU and Kansas then hosting Houston are all winnable games with each team looking more vulnerable than the Horned Frogs right now.

There’s a real scenario where the Horned Frogs could be heading to Utah with a 5-1 record, but that’ll only be possible if the Horned Frogs can find more balance on on offense.

As bad as the collapse was, it’s still far too early to write TCU off. But when you blow a 21-point lead at home after last year’s disappointing finish, scrutiny will only continue to build.

The only remedy? Just win.