Trio of NFL players likely to become disgruntled with their current contracts

There is a number buried under the "honoring contracts" debate in the now-diffused standoff between Kam Chancellor and the Seattle Seahawks, and it has nothing to do with this NFL season.

$155 million.

That's where the 2016 salary cap could settle – a $12 million bump over this year. There are some NFL sources who speculate that it could be even higher. You can bet that played at least partially into Chancellor trying to move some money up from the back end of the remaining three years on his contract. It's a sound financial double-dipping goal: move contract money from 2017 into 2016, then hope that 2017 ultimately gets ripped up in favor of a new contract.

While that might upset fans, it's merely a maneuver in a financial system that is fully awash in new television money. And those available salary-cap dollars are only expected to swell going forward: from $123 million in 2013 to $143 million this year, and possibly as high as $155 million in 2016. That's where some league sources believe the cap – the result of a negotiated formula by the NFL and NFL Players Association – could end up next year.

Those are dollars that will continue to drive up contracts, and spur more Chancellor situations – where a player looks back only a year or two and sees that his deal no longer seems so great. While this will impact any number of stars, it will land harder on those who just signed new deals or extensions prior to 2015. With more free-agent dollars to go around than ever before, the bar is rising quickly for key positions and special players.

With that in mind, there are three massive stars that could very well end up going the Chancellor route in a few years – looking at their deals and hoping to get them fine-tuned with multiple years left.

Specifically, the three players set the standard at their position, but aren't sitting atop their salary scale. The likelihood of them honoring the full length of their deals under the current numbers? Very thin.

Among them …

Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots

Gronkowski collects $10.65 million this season, thanks to an option bonus triggered by the Patriots that keeps him through 2019. If he collects all of his workout and roster bonuses from 2016-19, he's got four years remaining at a bargain clip of $36.65 million (approximately $9.16 million per year.). Yes, that's near the top of the food chain for tight ends. But in light of the expanding cap opening more money for "special" players (see: Ndamukong Suh), the deal is going to really start to feel like it's falling behind next season. At this stage, there are a lot of years left with very little protection in guaranteed money. And let's not forget, Gronkowski is the total package: a monster blocker and an ulcer-inducing matchup problem as a receiver. He's also Tom Brady's gotta-make-something-happen security blanket in the red zone.

To really put things in perspective, consider that agent Drew Rosenhaus just landed an average of $13 million a season for Indianapolis Colts widout T.Y. Hilton for the next five years. Wide receivers Vincent Jackson (Tampa Bay Buccaneers) and Jeremy Maclin (Kansas City Chiefs) are both making $11 million a year. Now ask a coaching staff to pick which player it'd rather have the next four years. Gronkowski wins that vote hands down. In light of that, I'd argue Gronkowski is underpaid right now. He's on his way to being the best tight end in NFL history. Those types of guys tend to be worth a major premium, and yet Gronkowski isn't even the highest paid tight end in the league. See: Jimmy Graham ($10 million per season) followed by Julius Thomas ($9.2 million per).

Patriots coach Bill Belichick loves Gronk. He has essentially said injuries to Gronkowski may have kept the Patriots from bringing home rings in 2012 and '13. At this stage of his career, his numbers dwarf any other tight end in history. He tied Randy Moss (Randy Moss!) as the second-fastest player to 50 touchdown receptions in NFL history. If Gronkowski remains healthy, I'd be stunned if this deal wasn't adjusted with multiple years left on it – possibly as early as the 2017 season. If Rosenhaus can get Hilton $13 million, he can get Gronkowski adjusted before this deal runs out.

Tyron Smith, OT, Dallas Cowboys

Uh. Where to begin with this one. Let's just start by saying two things. First, for an elite left tackle, Smith probably signed one of the worst deals in NFL history. Second, I'm fairly certain that isn't the fault of the agents who did the deal – Joe Panos and Eric Metz. Smith had financial issues in his family, and it created pressure in his mind to get something substantial done in 2014. The result was an eight-year extension that basically locked up his earning power during the balance of what will be the most lucrative decade in the history of NFL free agency. Indeed, he's the only NFL player under contract through the 2023 season. That he just reached an All-Pro level in 2014 is, well, great for the Cowboys. They get his prime years for what is looking like a discounted prive.

Dallas restructured part of Smith's deal in 2015, making an explanation of the numbers fairly eye-glossing. But it boils down to this: Counting his 2015 salary and applicable bonuses (including signing and restructuring), Smith could earn $106.6 million over the next nine years. In totality, that's a big number. And the $11.8 million average isn't bad. But you have to consider that a bulk of the deal carries no guaranteed money, and that Washington Redskins left tackle Trent Williams just signed a deal averaging $13.6 million in August. You could argue that Smith is a better player than Williams right now, despite being three years younger. Now imagine what kind of deals top-level offensive tackles will be signing in 2019, when Smith will be making what amounts to $12 million (and still have five years left on his contract).

Barring injury or Smith's skill inexplicably deteriorating in his mid-to-late 20s, it's hard to see how this deal won't be torn up or tuned up with three or even four years left on it. Left tackle salaries are going to bloat over the next five years. Smith might be the best one out there. He'll likely have long forgotten why he signed this deal as he trickles down the list of tackle contracts.

JJ Watt, DE, Houston Texans

Watt signed a year too early. It's that simple. But he wanted the deal, so it had to get done. What nobody could have imagined is that Ndamukong Suh would come along and nuke the numbers for elite defensive linemen. Just from a baseline standpoint, Watt signed a contract extension of six years and $100-plus million versus Suh's deal of six years and $114-plus million. I won't get into the gritty details, simply because I am of the opinion both players will end up realizing their full deals (yes...even despite the recent buyer's remorse on the Suh deal).

Here is the problem with Watt's deal: Because the Texans didn't rip up the last year of his rookie deal, the extension doesn't kick in until the 2016 season. So Watt gets his big "jump" one year later than Suh, and is stuck in his deal one year longer. And in that span, he's making $2 million-plus less on average than a player who he outpaces in talent. Perhaps the larger issue is simply that Watt has transformed into the best defensive player in the NFL by a wide margin. He's arguably the only non-quarterback you could realistically insert into the league MVP conversation. And that's not even considering the possibilities if he's integrated into more of the red zone offense as a tight end. Or that he sells tickets and is an insanely marketable player for the Texans.

Simply put, Watt is the definition of rare. Suh will be earning more than him, and guys like the Buffalo Bills' Marcell Dareus and the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' Gerald McCoy will effectively be earning almost the same money (roughly $16 million per) as Watt over the next six years. And if the St. Louis Rams' Aaron Donald actually gets better, he could be looking to top Suh when the 2018 option year kicks in on his rookie contract. All in all, Watt's deal could really lose some luster three years from now, and he'll still have another three years left. If he's better at that point in his career than he is right now, he'll be due another raise (if he isn't due one already).