Transfer portal talk: Decision time for Oscar Tshiebwe, other UK players eyeing NBA Draft

After an offseason full of departures, speculation and swings-and-misses in the NCAA transfer portal, clarity is about to arrive for the Kentucky men’s basketball team for next season.

Three key UK players from a season ago — Chris Livingston, Antonio Reeves and Oscar Tshiebwe — have until 11:59 p.m. Wednesday to decide whether to begin their professional basketball careers, or return to school for at least one more season of college basketball.

The choices of these three players will have a large effect on what the 2023-24 Kentucky men’s basketball roster will look like, and should also crystallize the types of players Kentucky must land from the transfer portal in the coming weeks.

Common thought about what each of Livingston, Reeves and Tshiebwe will decide has shifted significantly since the Wildcats’ season ended March 19. But something that hasn’t changed is the importance of whatever their choices are for UK’s aspirations next season.

Latest on stay-or-go choices for Livingston, Reeves, Tshiebwe

Let’s go in alphabetical order when assessing the stay-or-go choices for each Kentucky Wildcat, starting with Chris Livingston.

The 6-foot-6 forward eventually settled into a groove and became a reliable starter during his freshman season at UK: He averaged 6.3 points and 4.2 rebounds per game, and was praised by Calipari late in the season for making winning plays.

Livingston was one of only three UK players to score in double figures during Kentucky’s season-ending loss to Kansas State in the NCAA Tournament.

He’s also been peculiar about managing his NBA Draft prospects: Livingston was at the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago this month where he participated in basketball drills and met with team officials, but he opted out of playing in the five-on-five games that highlight the event.

Livingston recently participated in a pre-Draft workout at a pro day hosted by Klutch Sports, the agency that handled his NIL opportunities last season.

Livingston told the Herald-Leader in Chicago he would make a stay-or-go announcement sometime before the May 31 deadline.

As of Monday morning, Livingston was not widely seen as an NBA Draft selection: Mock drafts from The Athletic’s Sam Vecenie and ESPN’s Jonathan Givony both failed to include Livingston among the 58 players that will be selected.

If Livingston is a player on the fringes of NBA Draft projections, then Antonio Reeves is even further adrift.

Reeves, a 6-5 guard who was Kentucky’s second-leading scorer last season at 14.4 points per game, is not expected to be selected during the NBA Draft on June 22.

Reeves participated in the NBA G-League Combine this month, but wasn’t invited to the NBA Draft Combine.

Should he elect to begin his pro career, it seems almost a certainty that Reeves will be an undrafted free agent and probably play in the NBA G-League next season.

Another option is that Reeves returns to school, but elects to transfer elsewhere.

Kentucky is bringing in five highly regarded freshmen as part of its top-ranked 2023 recruiting class, and Reeves may want a different environment to showcase his skills during a final college season.

Such a decision would represent a sharp contrast to what was initially expected from Reeves. Common thought was that Reeves would test NBA Draft waters to receive feedback from teams, before opting to return to UK.

Now, that outcome seems up in the air as the NBA Draft withdrawal deadline nears.

Reeves’ role as an experienced scorer would be invaluable on the UK roster next season: He scored in double figures in 26 of 34 games for Kentucky last season, and scored 20 or more points in 10 contests.

The Kentucky player with the biggest chance to be selected on draft night is also the player who has brought the most to the program in recent seasons.

Oscar Tshiebwe has brought a generational rebounding ability to Lexington, and the 6-9 forward averaged a double-double per game in his two seasons with the Cats.

But vindicating team success hasn’t come with the production, as UK has only one NCAA Tournament win during this time span.

Additionally, flaws in Tshiebwe’s individual game were exposed last season, in particular on defense.

It adds up to a complicated stay-or-go decision for Tshiebwe, who has the potential to rake in name, image and likeness money while at Kentucky, while the monetary compensation is less certain for him as a professional.

Like Livingston, Tshiebwe took part in the NBA Draft Combine in Chicago, but Tshiebwe went all in: He participated in drills and testing, as well as the five-on-five games that are played in front of league scouts.

Tshiebwe fared well in those contests.

When speaking to the Herald-Leader at the combine, Tshiebwe also made it clear his goal is to stay in the NBA Draft.

Tshiebwe wasn’t included in either Givony’s most recent ESPN mock draft, nor in Vecenie’s most recent The Athletic mock draft.

It should also be noted that both forward Jacob Toppin and guard Cason Wallace also have their names entered in the NBA Draft.

Neither player will return to college, but only Wallace is expected to be selected on draft night.

Wallace is projected as a probable lottery pick (draft selections 1-14).

What is Kentucky doing in the NCAA transfer portal?

Even if all three of Livingston, Reeves and Tshiebwe were to return to Kentucky next season, it could be argued the Wildcats’ roster would still need help from the transfer portal, given UK’s six outgoing players.

But it’s exceedingly unlikely that all three players return to Lexington, which means John Calipari and company need to get to work in the portal.

UK’s inability to bring in any players from the portal so far this offseason — highlighted by the failed recruitments of Hunter Dickinson (Michigan to Kansas) and Keshad Johnson (San Diego State to Arizona) — has been a major frustration point among fans.

With that said, Kentucky’s roster outlook for next season should be clear by Thursday morning, which could bode well for UK when it comes to explaining to portal players what their role would be at Kentucky next season.

“I think it’s hard to really make waves in the transfer portal when you have a lot of unknowns,” Isaac Trotter, a national college basketball writer for 247Sports, told the Herald-Leader last week. “A lot of transfers want guaranteed minutes and a guaranteed massive role. Kentucky can’t promise any of those things yet.”

Whether this roster clarity will result in Kentucky being able to land any of the recent portal players that UK has been linked to — such as David Jones (St. John’s), Julian Phillips (Tennessee) and Cam Spencer (Rutgers) — is unknown.

But something that’s certain is come Thursday morning, Calipari should have a much better feel for the roles that need to be filled for next season’s team.

What to know about this week’s NBA Draft deadline, decisions

The deadline for players to decide whether to remain in the NBA Draft or return to school is May 31 at 11:59 p.m.

Given this, we are only hours away from knowing whether or not Livingston, Reeves and Tshiebwe will be Wildcats next season.

The stay-or-go decisions for these three players will also have seismic effects on Kentucky’s roster construction for the 2023-24 season, and which types of players UK will pursue in the NCAA transfer portal.

Here’s a current breakdown of the scholarship players joining and leaving the Cats, along with the question marks that still exist for next season’s team.

Incoming players: Aaron Bradshaw (freshman center), Robert Dillingham (freshman guard), Justin Edwards (freshman small forward), Reed Sheppard (freshman guard), DJ Wagner (freshman guard).

Returning players: Brennan Canada (fifth-year guard), Ugonna Onyenso (sophomore forward), Adou Thiero (sophomore guard).

Outgoing players: Daimion Collins (forward, transferred to LSU), CJ Fredrick (guard, transferred to Cincinnati), Jacob Toppin (forward, NBA Draft), Cason Wallace (guard, NBA Draft), Lance Ware (forward, transferred to Villanova), Sahvir Wheeler (guard, transferred to Washington).

Yet-to-be announced: Chris Livingston (forward), Antonio Reeves (guard), Oscar Tshiebwe (forward).