Trade to Habs Boosts Patrik Laine's Fantasy Value, But Pump the Brakes on 40 Goals

There was a time when Patrik Laine was on the path to be one of the league's best snipers. He did, after all, score 36 in his rookie season, finishing seventh in the league and second among rookies, and then 44 in his sophomore season, trailing only Alex Ovechkin's 49. Through Laine's first two seasons, only Ovechkin scored more power-play goals and total goals than Laine.

But then Laine fell off the map wagon. Hard. He scored 30 goals in his third season with a team-worst minus-24 even though the Jets finished second in the Central with 17 wins above .500.

It was the first hint that Laine's play had begun to dip. What followed were five injury-riddled seasons, including various wrist, collarbone and shoulder injuries that certainly affected his offensive game, a trade to the Blue Jackets, and constant news of discontent.

After Laine made it clear that he no longer he wanted to be a Jacket, he was shipped along with a second-round pick to the Canadiens for defenseman Jordan Harris.

View the original article to see embedded media.

This news, of course, gives Laine's fantasy value a big boost.

Prior to the trade, there was no telling whether or not Laine would actually play another game for the Jackets, and his fantasy value had steadily fallen since he joined them three seasons ago. In 174 career games with the Jackets, Laine scored just 64 goals — a 30-goal pace over an 82-game season. It was fine, and there was a two-season stretch where Laine teased with point-per-game production, but not what you'd expect from a player who was once mentioned in the same breath as Ovechkin and 2016 draft-mate Auston Matthews.

He was traded at arguably the lowest point of his career heading into the 2024-25 season, ranked 240th in Yahoo's pre-season rankings. With a fresh start, and by his own admission wanting to "come back as a 40, 50-goal scorer" Laine could conceivably reach his goal. At the very least, the move to the Habs has closed the gap considerably between Laine's pre-season value and Juraj Slafkovsky's, who is ranked 107th in the pre-season rankings.

The big question: Can Laine actually score 40 goals? Or even 50?

Maybe we should start with 30.

It's a little ironic that the biggest competition Laine will face is Slafkovsky. The most coveted spot in the Habs' lineup is the spot next to Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield, who are the lynchpins of the Habs' offense.

When Suzuki and Caufield are on the ice, they have been good play drivers with a 50.30 CF% at 5-on-5, according to naturalstattrick.com. When they're not on the ice, the Habs' possession numbers plummet to 44.26 CF%. They're even better when Slafkovsky shares the ice with them (50.83 CF%), and indeed Slafkovsky's possession metrics also plummet without them (44.12 CF%).

If the Habs stick with Slafkovsky on their top line, that leaves Laine with Alex Newhook and Kirby Dach as his most likely linemates.

It's worth noting that Newhook and Dach showed tons of promise last season as a pair despite a very, very small sample size. Together, they scored a 65.22 CF% at 5-on-5 in 13:46 TOI with Dach scoring very well in possession metrics on his own. They're just far less proven than Suzuki and Caufield, and that in itself carries some risk.

Dach appeared in just two games last season before suffering a season-ending injury and faces a long path ahead to live up to the billing as the third overall pick in 2019. Newhook is just coming into his own as a top-six forward after failing to climb the depth chart with the Avalanche. He, too, saw limited action due to injury last season, appearing in just 55 games, though he did score a career-high 34 points.

It should also be noted that Laine is not particularly good at generating offense himself and he's incredibly streaky. He was at his best with the Jets when he shared the ice with Mark Scheifele and Kyle Connor, and nearly half his goals (20) from his career-high, 44-goal season in 2017-18 were scored on the power play.

Over the past three seasons, Laine's individual expected goals per 60 minutes at 5-on-5 ranks 363rd (!) out of 434 forwards (min. 1000 TOI). In his first three seasons in the league, he ranked 236th out of 414 forwards. Granted, the Jackets could never find a proper center to play with Laine — Boone Jenner is a good player but not your typical No. 1 pivot — and he wasn't the only player who struggled to score.

Even if the stat isn't necessarily fully reflective of Laine's scoring ability, it's precipitous drop. It would also be a lot more digestible if Laine was a pass-first playmaker, but he's paid to score goals. Someone needs to feed Laine and his awesome shot.

Related: Reunited, And It Feels So Good: Sean Monahan and Johnny Gaudreau

Other than Suzuki, the Habs do not have another established top-six center. Dach is a better winger than a center, Newhook is still developing and the remaining options are all bottom-six players. Center is the one area where the Habs' depth is a little thin, especially the scoring kind, and that will put a cap on Laine's scoring production.

The Habs' top power play unit is spoken for with Suzuki, Caufield, Slafkovsky and Newhook. If Laine is to join the top unit, then a downgrade in fantasy value will be required for either Slafkovsky or Newhook.

Habs projected forward lineup:

Juraj Slafkovsky - Nick Suzuki - Cole Caufield
Patrik Laine - Alex Newhook - Kirby Dach
Brendan Gallagher - Jake Evans - Josh Anderson
Rafael Harvey-Pinard - Christian Dvorak - Joel Armia

ex: Michael Pezzetta, Joshua Roy, Alex Barre-Boulet

The ultimate silver lining is that, when healthy, Laine was a point-per-game player for the Jackets from 2021-22 to 2022-23 with really good production at even strength. The caveat: His individual points percentage was unsustainably high at over 80 percent, and he received a lot of ice time. It's small stretches like this where Laine looks like a tantalizing scoring talent and elite fantasy asset, but it's happened so rarely over the past few seasons that he's become difficult to trust and risky to roster.

Laine is potentially a great value pick in the late rounds. I think he can score more goals than Slafkovsky, and he has the talent to challenge Caufield, but Laine needs the requisite ice time and a role on PP1, and to stay healthy and focused all season. Head coach Martin St-Louis has done wonders with a young roster, but this might be his biggest challenge yet. Can Laine handle the pressures of playing in Montreal?

My initial projection has Laine scoring 27 goals, including nine on the power play, on 210 shots while averaging 15 minutes per game with a role on the second power play unit. I'm willing to take the over on 27 goals, but find 40 unlikely.

If Laine scores 30 this season and the Habs continue to improve, his fantasy value in 2025-26 might climb back to its all-time highs.

Do you think Laine has increased his fantasy value with a move to the Habs?

Click here to join the new THN Fantasy roundtable to discuss!

Remember to bookmark The Hockey News Fantasy site for stats, news, analysis, rankings, projections and more, including the Sleepers and Keepers fantasy hockey podcast!

Related:

Nashville Predators... Offensive Powerhouse?

Jake DeBrusk: Over or Under 30 Goals?

Viktor Arvidsson: Over or Under 30 Goals?