How tough is Kentucky football’s 2024 schedule? ESPN’s power ratings provide a clue.

john clay

Tue, Jun 4, 2024, 11:34 a.m.·4 min read

ESPN posted its first Football Power Index ratings for the upcoming 2024 season on Monday. Based on those numbers, inquiring minds went about figuring out which college teams face this fall’s toughest schedules.

Their SOS (strength of schedule) rankings:

1. Florida

2. Mississippi State

3. Georgia

4. Kentucky

Stop right there.

Kentucky?

Yikes.

Hardest Schedules in College Football for 2024 according to ESPN FPI:

1. Florida
2. Mississippi State
3. Georgia
4. Kentucky
5. Auburn
6. Alabama
7. Oklahoma
8. Tennessee
9. Georgia Tech
10. Texas
11. Purdue
12. UCLA
13. Washington
14. Vanderbilt
15. Illinois
16. Ohio State
17.… pic.twitter.com/DmJl4gsEmI
— College Football Report (@CFBRep) June 3, 2024

With add-ons Texas and Oklahoma boarding the SEC money train, we knew the most ridiculous football conference in the nation would become that much more ridiculous. But seriously? Yes, seriously. Going by the FPI rankings, the nation’s eight toughest schedules belong to SEC schools, with Kentucky among the first four. Yikes, again.

So how tough is UK’s 2024 slate? Well, Mark Stoops’ squad plays the No. 1 FPI-ranked team in Georgia, No. 3 in Texas, No. 9 in Tennessee and No. 16 in Ole Miss.

Here’s the thing: The Texas, Tennessee and Ole Miss games are all away from Kroger Field.

Not that UK’s other opponents are cupcakes. Auburn is at No. 19 in the FPI. Florida is at No. 20. Louisville is at No. 21. South Carolina is at No. 33. The good news for Big Blue is that among that foursome, Florida is the only game that requires a road trip.

So where did ESPN’s FPI rank Kentucky?

Answer: The Cats are 34th.

That strikes me as a bit low. True, Stoops lost his quarterback (Devin Leary), his top running back (Ray Davis), a pair of drafted defensive stars (Andru Phillips and Trevin Wallace) and his offensive coordinator (Liam Coen), but pieces do return. Defensive tackle Deone Walker is a potential top five 2025 NFL draft pick. Transfer quarterback Brock Vandagriff majors in upside. And Kentucky boasts two of the SEC’s top receivers in Barion Brown and Dane Key.

Plus, Kentucky has a habit of beating expectations. It did so in 2018 by winning 10 games. It did so in 2021 by winning 10 games.

Still, so much of a college football team’s record is determined by who you play. That’s one reason UK AD Mitch Barnhart has led the fight to keep the conference schedule at eight games, despite conference membership expanding to 16 teams. The eight-game schedule continues in 2025. As for 2026, all bets are off.

Each SEC holdover drew one of the league’s newbies for 2024. Alabama, Auburn, LSU, Ole Miss, Missouri, South Carolina and Tennessee play Oklahoma. Arkansas, Florida, Georgia, Kentucky, Mississippi State, Texas A&M and Vanderbilt play Texas. UK meets the Longhorns in Austin on Nov. 23. How lucky.

Kentucky football head coach Mark Stoops greets new women’s basketball head coach Kenny Brooks during the Blue-White Spring Game in April. Stoops’ team faces one of the nation’s most difficult football schedules this fall.

The end of divisional play doesn’t help the Cats’ cause either. There will be no Kentucky-Missouri grudge match for the first time since 2011. Over the last nine years, Stoops is 9-2 vs. Mizzou. Mississippi State is off the UK schedule for the first time since 1989. Kentucky has beaten the Bulldogs three of the last four years, including 24-3 last season in Starkville.

Instead, the Cats travels to Ole Miss for the second time in three seasons. After not playing in Oxford since 2010, UK lost a tough 22-19 decision to the Rebels in 2022. Now, it returns Sept. 28 to face Lane Kiffin’s squad outside The Grove. The word around the campfire is the Rebels have an excellent chance at making the newly expanded 12-team College Football Playoff.

There are two off Saturdays on UK’s calendar — Oct. 5 before a home game vs. Vanderbilt and Nov. 9 before a home game vs. Murray State.

So who has the cushiest SEC schedule? Relatively cushy, of course. That would be Missouri. Not that the Tigers’ bag is full of marshmallows, but Eli Drinkwitz’s squad avoids Georgia, Texas, Ole Miss and Tennessee. It does travel to Alabama, but has Auburn and Oklahoma in Columbia. Armed with a new coat of confidence, Mizzou has a legitimate shot at matching last season’s surprise 11-2 record.

Here’s the local question: Can Kentucky improve on last season’s 7-6 mark? Yes, of course. The Cats have done it before; they can do it again. But judging by the strength of that nasty schedule, it won’t be easy.