8 factors that will decide Raptors-Sixers

By William Lou and Vivek Jacob

Here are eight things that will go a long way in deciding the Toronto Raptors versus Philadelphia 76ers second-round series:

One - Looking at the Sixers’ vitals

The 76ers finished 13th in both offensive (112.4 points per-100 possessions) and defensive (110.8) efficiency since trading for Tobias Harris, but don’t write off their mediocre plus-1.6 net rating as Joel Embiid missed 14 of the 28 games (17-11 record) played. They won 10 of the 14 games in which he suited up, including impressive wins over the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics over the span of four days in March.

Note: For the sake of avoiding repetition, unless otherwise specified, assume all stats for both the Raptors and Sixers are post-Marc Gasol and Harris trades, respectively. These are smaller sample sizes but much more representative of the teams as currently constructed.

The 76ers have a tremendous starting five of Ben Simmons, J.J. Redick, Jimmy Butler, Harris and Embiid, which finished a plus-17.6 in 161 minutes, and Raptors head coach was singing their praises after practice Thursday.

“I think if you look at all five of those positions, there’s a lot of teams in the league that would take any one of those guys,” Raptors coach Nick Nurse said. “They’re legit players. Got a couple of experienced guys there, got some obviously couple of the youngish superstars in the league coming. They got an inside game, they’ve got a big point guard, they’ve got shooting, they’ve got a sharpshooter, someone who can really draw the attention, so there’s a lot there to try and solve.”

Coincidentally, the Raptors’ starting lineup of Kyle Lowry, Danny Green, Kawhi Leonard, Pascal Siakam and Gasol also played 161 regular season minutes together, finishing a plus-12.2. Both starting units dominated their respective opening-round opponents and so how both coaches stagger their stars with bench players will play a critical role in determining the winner of this series.

Two - How does Philly defend?

The short answer is that it operates completely different from Orlando. While the Magic prioritized minimizing field goal attempts at the basket, the Sixers finished in the bottom third of the league, allowing almost two-fifths of their opponents’ field goal attempts to come at the rim. The 62.2 percent field goal percentage they allowed at the rim was about league average, but that number noticeably decreases with Embiid on the court as opposed to when he’s sitting.

What’s fundamental to attacking the basket against them is having dynamic playmakers who can attack off the bounce. D’Angelo Russell, Spencer Dinwiddie and Caris LeVert all had their moments for the Nets in breaking down the Sixers defence and getting to the rim as Philly rarely helps, almost goading teams to finish over Embiid or Boban Marjanovic at the rim.

The Nets played Jared Dudley at the five in an attempt to draw Sixers bigs away from the basket, freeing up more 1-on-1 situations for their guards against Redick. This is where the Raptors will truly feel the blessing of Gasol and Serge Ibaka at centre, and if they can both drag out the opposing centre often enough, there will be plenty of fruit at the basket.

Lowry must be aggressive but, once again, this is where Siakam’s growth is vital. His ability to get to the basket against Harris could put the Sixers in a bit of a bind. It will be interesting to see if they also look to adjust their defensive schemes and load up on Leonard, as the former Finals MVP will undoubtedly be ready to take advantage of any isolation opportunities he’s presented.

One of the reasons the Sixers rarely help is because they are adamant about protecting the three-point line. They finished second in three-point attempts allowed (they allow almost half as many corner threes as the Raptors), and while percentages can be subject to variance, they also limited teams to a fourth-best 34.4 percent from beyond the arc. This is where Gasol and Leonard’s work from the elbows can be a factor in breaking them. Philadelphia was also in the bottom third in field goal attempts allowed from the mid-range, and if Gasol, Leonard and Ibaka show a willingness to take what the defence gives them, the Sixers could be forced into tinkering with their schemes.

Considering the principles of their defence, it shouldn’t come as a surprise that despite their length, the Sixers forced the fewest turnovers in the league. When you’re not really looking to help and poke at balls, you’re more focused on being disciplined positionally and contesting shots when the time comes. This does feel like a bit of a missed opportunity for them.

Three - How does Philly attack?

Beware all the dribble hand-offs (DHOs). This is the vast majority of the Sixers’ offence but since there are several ways they can go off the initial action, the Raptors’ defensive communication and switchability will be tested a great deal. There will be hand-offs at either elbow, which will see Simmons end up on the opposite side for deep post-ups, Iverson cuts that will result in Embiid post-up opportunities, and whenever there’s any kind of failed execution in getting over screens, Redick and Harris hoisting away from three.

If you’re wondering about Butler, he operates as their release valve, the one who can get a shot off late in the clock as well as operate most effectively in the pick-and-roll when they’re looking to change things up or their initial actions are denied.

The most common way to counter the Sixers’ propensity to run their favoured initial action is to top-lock, which is what the Nets did as best they could in the first round. In its simplest terms, this means blocking the path the offensive player has to a screen. This is effective if you still have someone within range to protect the paint, because otherwise you risk surrendering backdoor cuts or deep position for a post-up.

They are relentless at attacking the basket, finishing second in free-throw attempt rate during the regular season and that has carried over through one round of the post-season as well. The Sixers will keep coming on the offensive glass as well, where they finished sixth in the regular season and are first in the playoffs by a wide margin, collecting 36.5 percent of the offensive boards available to them against the Nets. Crucially, the Raptors are a much better defensive rebounding team than the Nets, and have been among the better teams at doing so since Gasol came over.

Philadelphia is still prone to turning over the ball themselves and this is an area the Raptors must expose over the course of the series. Despite Orlando entering the first round as a low-turnover team, the Raptors did a great job of adjusting to the schemes and finding a way to unlock their transition game as the series went on.

Leonard was incredibly impactful on Simmons over the course of the regular season in taking the ball out of his hands, and Nurse has consistently expressed his desire over the course of the playoffs thus far that he likes picking up ball-handlers high up the court and see his team impose their will.

Four - How to limit Joel Embiid’s effectiveness

Stopping Embiid should be the Raptors’ first priority. Boston eliminated Philadelphia in five games last season in large part because Al Horford held Embiid to 23 points on 44 percent shooting. If the Raptors can replicate that type of effort, the series will be theirs, and luck is working in their favour. Embiid is dealing with persistent pain in his knee, and he only averaged 24 minutes versus the Nets.

The first step to limiting Embiid will be to deny the easy baskets. Push him out away from the paint as much as possible, keep him off the offensive glass, and don’t give him freebies by biting on his rip-throughs and pump fakes. Make him work for everything. It will be the Nik Vucevic strategy times a million.

“Just like any great player, you make everything as difficult as possible, as uncomfortable as possible as they allow you, and have the same mindset we had on Nik (Vucevic),” Gasol told reporters after practice on Thursday.

Of course, that’s easier said than done. Embiid is strong as an ox, but he also knows how to play possum by exaggerating contact. He ranked third among all players in the first round of the playoffs with 8.8 free-throw attempts per game, and Embiid will look to trick the Raptors’ bigs. Gasol and Ibaka both need to be disciplined and stay on their feet, and let Embiid settle for jumpers from just about any distance outside the paint. He can knock down a few, but he’s not particularly efficient from the mid-range (35 percent) nor from deep (30 percent).

The Sixers are rather creative in terms of how they deliver the ball to Embiid. He serves as a hub for the offence at the elbows, and Philadelphia will often involve Redick or Butler to either work around Embiid’s screens to get open, or to screen for Embiid so he’s open. Either way, it will take constant communication for the Raptors to navigate these dribble hand-off actions because switching anyone else onto a 7-foot-3 behemoth will be untenable.

When all else fails, Embiid will look to be a bully on the block. Embiid averaged more post-ups per game than anyone outside of LaMarcus Aldridge this season, and he shot 50 percent from the field while also earning free throws on 27 percent of those possessions. Part of that just comes with the territory of being 300 pounds, but Embiid also has a lightning-quick first step that allows him to get into the lane for the hook shot.

However, there will be opportunities to attack Embiid. For one, his endurance is substandard even when his knee is healthy, and there are usually diminishing returns when he logs more than six minutes at a time. Embiid also loves to camp out in the lane, so Gasol and Ibaka should see plenty of open looks at the top of the key. Finally, Embiid can be sloppy with the ball, so the Raptors should try to catch him off-guard with a help defender when he puts the ball on the floor, or Gasol can try his luck and see if the officials will allow him to slap at the ball as he likes to do.

Five - The nuisance that is JJ Redick

The second key to stopping the Sixers will be limiting Redick. Embiid posted the highest net rating on the Sixers at plus-11.3 points per 100 possessions, and Redick ranked second at plus-7.4 in the regular season. He might not have the star power of his teammates, but Redick is central to most of what the Sixers do in their half court offence.

In short, Redick makes your life a living hell. He never stops darting around, and he’s also a master at both using picks and setting them. Redick speeds in and out of picks from guys like Embiid and Simmons, and his movement creates chaos for others to feed off. Try to overplay him, and he’ll even use his defender as a hurdle to create space for Embiid. He’s also an elite shooter from just about every spot on the floor, so there’s no place to rest.

“He’s very good at what he does. He moves very well, he runs very fast, he screens big guys who are 300 pounds, six-foot-11 and seven feet, and sets good screens for them. We’ll try to avoid those screens, but it’s hard to do, but you’re in for a track meet,” Green said of Redick.

Toronto’s strategy during the regular season was to keep a longer defender on Redick. Green saw 80 defensive possessions against Redick in three meetings, while Norman Powell and Delon Wright also took on another 40. The bet is that a longer defender can close the gap after Redick rockets around a screen to create separation, and generally speaking, that’s the right call. A bigger player can also overplay Redick while also taking away the feed for the backdoor cut, and perhaps even switching onto Embiid as a last-ditch emergency.

However, that was an easier proposition before the Sixers added Butler and Harris. Now, the price of putting length on Redick will be having either Lowry or Fred VanVleet on one of the Sixers’ jumbo wing scorers. Lowry is surprisingly stout in the post, but it’s still not entirely ideal to have him constantly wrestle bigger players. Toronto might opt to keep it simple by repeating the same strategy they used against Evan Fournier and Terrence Ross in Round 1, where it was mostly the point guards checking the opposing team’s shooting guards.

The best solution would be to run Redick off the floor on the other end. Philadelphia will almost certainly stash Redick on Green, and Green should try his luck against Redick in the post. Toronto tried to execute this strategy against D.J. Augustin, but the Magic’s length made post-entry passes nearly impossible. The Sixers aren’t quite as active, so there will be opportunities for Green to use his rudimentary-yet-effective post game.

Likewise, both Lowry and VanVleet should explore attacking Redick off the bounce whenever possible, as Redick’s lateral quickness is severely limited. Philadelphia has always struggled to guard quick scoring guards, and while Lowry and VanVleet don’t necessarily fit the bill, they should look to be more aggressive.

Six - Stop Ben Simmons’ momentum

Simmons is a terror in the open floor, but as Dudley said in the first round, Simmons is just “average” in the half court. Picking him up early and not letting him gather speed is half the battle. He’s not as effective when the game slows down.

Simmons primarily operates in two areas on the floor. He’s either up top directing traffic, or he’s skulking around the baseline waiting for a dump-off pass to score around the rim. Offensively, he’s closer to Draymond Green than he is to any traditional point guard. Simmons used more possessions posting up (3.4) than in the pick-and-roll (2.3), and quite frankly is not particularly effective in either setting.

The Raptors are spoiled for choice when it comes to checking Simmons. Leonard famously coaxed Simmons into 11 turnovers in their first meeting, but Leonard’s talents might be better served on Butler or Harris, especially down the stretch. Siakam can also handle Simmons, as he is every bit as quick in transition and he also has the length to challenge Simmons around the basket. Even Lowry could get a look at Simmons if the Raptors want to put length on the other four positions. Any of those three can hold their own.

The bigger question is how the Raptors should defend Simmons, because there’s a prime opportunity to cheat off him at the perimeter to clog the lane with an additional help defender. The benefit to this strategy is obvious, but there are also costs associated with ignoring Simmons. For one, Simmons can throw any pass he wants in the absence of ball pressure. Two, the Sixers know how to attack the space by either getting Simmons driving downhill with some momentum, or by having Simmons screen for a shooter so it becomes a two-on-one situation with no help. Laying off Simmons also creates fewer chances to force turnovers.

Seven - Jimmy Butler is a manageable problem

Butler owned the Raptors as a member of the Bulls, and he remains lethal as a closer for the Sixers. Butler might get lost in the shuffle early on, but the Raptors should definitely have Leonard covering him in the fourth.

Physicality is Butler’s best asset. He’s a power guard in the mould of Dwyane Wade, in that he might not necessarily take the best shots but he knows how to get his looks and how to manipulate contact for the whistle. Butler primarily likes to attack off a high screen, but he can also operate effectively out of the post and is a fairly capable playmaker. Stopping him won’t be easy, especially if his streaky outside shot is falling, but the Raptors also shouldn’t overreact. Butler’s not particularly efficient if he’s not getting to the foul line, and the ball can stick in his hands. Butler taking over means less of the Embiid-Redick two-man game, which is a win for the defence.

Butler is also an elite defender, but he might be slightly overmatched against Leonard, who is just bigger and stronger. Those are usually advantages that work in Butler’s favour, but he can only hope to get under Leonard. Leonard had one of his best performances of the year when he scored 35 points on 15-of-23 shooting against Butler while he was still with the Timberwolves.

Eight - Don’t stress about Tobias Harris

Harris is a bit like Aaron Gordon, in that he can total 20 points while not necessarily breaking your back with his scoring. Harris is a great catch-and-shoot option and his mid-range game is decent coming off the high screen, but he doesn’t quite overwhelm and force you to adjust in the way that Redick or even Butler would. Don’t leave him open from deep — rush his midrange shot, and dare him to finish inside over a shot blocker.

If anything, there’s an opportunity to turn Harris into a liability. He can get forgotten in the offence if the Raptors are diligent, and he won’t be able to make up the difference with his defence. Siakam should have his way in the post, and the Raptors should see if Siakam can get Harris into foul trouble early on because the Sixers are painfully short on depth in the frontcourt. If Harris is out, the Sixers are stuck between Jonah Bolden or James Ennis playing power forward, and both players would be clear liabilities in a playoff setting.

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