Toronto FC faces Inter Miami, needing a win to keep its slim playoff hopes alive

TORONTO — Hanging on to the final Eastern Conference post-season berth by its fingernails, Toronto FC needs a win over league-leading Inter Miami at BMO Field in its regular-season finale Saturday to keep its playoff hopes alive.

"We're still in the fight, by hook or crook," Toronto coach John Herdman said Friday. "We'll be giving everything this weekend to do something to get a result for this fan base, for the club."

But even that may not be enough.

Toronto (11-18-4) currently sits ninth in the East, three points behind CF Montreal which has played one fewer game. Philadelphia and D.C. United (both 9-13-10) are also on 37 points — trailing TFC on a tiebreaker (most wins) — but also have a game in hand.

The eighth- and ninth-place clubs meet in a wild-card playoff with the winner advancing to face the conference's top seed — Miami in the East — in a best-of-three first-round matchup.

The best Toronto can do is win Saturday and hope others stumble in the final stretch. But there are more bad scenarios than good.

A Toronto loss Saturday coupled with a D.C. United win or draw at New England or a Philadelphia win or draw at Columbus will eliminate TFC from playoff contention. So would a TFC draw if coupled with a D.C. United win or Philadelphia victory.

With an Oct. 19 bye, Toronto will have to watch the league's final regular-season slate of games from the sidelines.

Toronto could win Saturday and still be caught by 14th-place New England (9-18-4) on the final day of the season if the Revs — who have a better goal differential, which is the next tiebreaker after victories — win all three of their remaining games.

Miami, Columbus, Cincinnati, Orlando City, New York City FC, the New York Red Bulls and Charlotte have already clinched playoff berths in the East. Only Chicago has been eliminated already.

Toronto, which finished last in the league last season at 4-20-10, faces Miami without the suspended Federico Bernardeschi and with fellow Italian star Lorenzo Insigne likely limited to a cameo at best.

An undisciplined Bernardeschi was shown a red card for the third time this season when he was sent off in the 4-1 mid-week loss to the visiting Red Bulls, while Insigne has seen just two minutes action in the last two games due to a calf strain.

"I'd never question his desire to play for this club," Herdman said of Insigne, whose US$15.4 million salary this season is second only to Lionel Messi's US$20.5 million.

"If you put him on, you might have to bring him out after two, three minutes … He's in pain. He just can't do the things that you need him to do. So again if we need a Hail Mary pass, we might have to put him in but it comes with a lot of risk."

Toronto will also be without defenders Kevin Long (concussion) and Kosi Thompson (knee). Defender/wingback Raoul Petretta is dealing with a hip issue and will see limited minutes at best.

Miami (20-4-8, 68 points) arrives on a high, coming off a 3-2 mid-week win at Columbus clinching the Supporters' Shield that goes to the team with the league's best regular-season record.

Coach Tata Martino said he celebrated by having "two beers."

It marked Messi's 46th career trophy for club and country. The 37-year-old Argentine scored twice in Columbus, one on a trademark free kick, and won player of the matchday honours for the fifth time this season.

Asked about Messi's participation Saturday, Martino was noncommittal.

"In terms of Leo and the rest of the players that have been playing and that have participated in two very tough games against Charlotte and Columbus, we have to look into the minutes that they've played," the Argentine said through an interpreter. "And with Leo, we know that playing more minutes puts him in better rhythm.

"We have been able to see that on the field, but we have to continue looking at him in the next few hours — and the rest of the group — to assess and decide (Saturday's) team."

With wins in its two remaining games, Miami could set a single-season points record with 74 (New England set the existing mark of 73 in 2021).

"They're going to be motivated, they're going to be hungry. They're in a good rhythm," said Herdman. "But for us, we might have a bit more to play for."

In addition to topping the table, Miami sports the league's best offence with 72 goals, while conceding 47. Messi has 32 goal contributions (17 goals and 15 assists) in just 17 league appearances.

Toronto, meanwhile, has been outscored 60-40 this season.

Miami is unbeaten in its last nine league outings (6-0-3), a run that began July 17 with a 3-1 victory over Toronto. Its last league defeat was July 6, a 6-1 loss at Cincinnati.

Toronto also lost 4-3 at Miami on Aug. 8 in Leagues Cup play

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This report by The Canadian Press was first published Oct. 4, 2024.

Neil Davidson, The Canadian Press