Three reasons why TCU will defeat or be upset in its home opener vs. Long Island

It’s time for another edition of Three Reasons Why as the Horned Frogs play their first home game of the season Saturday against Long Island.

TCU started the season successfully with a 34-27 win on the road at Stanford. It was far from a flawless performance, but after seeing how the rest of the games played out across the college football landscape, there’s reason for TCU to feel optimistic after picking up a road win against Power Conference opponent.

Now the Horned Frogs will look to build momentum against the Sharks, who had a narrow loss to Albany in their season opener. Here are three reasons why TCU will pick up another win or be upset at home:

Three reasons why TCU will beat LIU

1. Talent advantage: These two rosters are in completely different stratospheres when it comes to talent across the board. The Sharks have some nice skill position players, but there’s a big gap between Michael Love and Savion Williams. The biggest talent gap between FBS and FCS opponents is usually in the trenches. TCU should be able to control the line of scrimmage with relative ease.

2. Josh Hoover: It’s still a small sample size, but so far through seven career starts Hoover has put up some impressive, video game-like numbers at times. In the opener against Stanford Hoover threw for 353 yards and two touchdowns while completing 66.7% of his passes. His numbers could’ve been higher if not for a few drops.

Hoover can put the game out of reach quickly in the first half and should have a big day against the Sharks.

3. New defense: Andy Avalos’ defense had dominant stretches against Stanford, particularly in the second half while the game was truly in doubt. The aggressive, attacking defense should have its way with the Sharks’ over-matched offensive line. The depth TCU has developed at the defensive line spot with young players like Zach Chapman and Markis Deal will provide the Horned Frogs a major boost.

Three reasons why LIU will upset TCU

1. Complacency: If the Horned Frogs don’t bring their A-game early, it could open the door for Long Island to grab some momentum early and hang around into the second half. But truthfully, a half-focused TCU would be more than enough to win this game comfortably.

2. Lack of discipline penalties: The Horned Frogs had 100 penalty yards in the win over Stanford, including one drive they where they had two 15-yard penalties after getting stops on third down. Stanford was almost able to pull off the upset with the assist of those mistakes and LIU could do the same if the Horned Frogs don’t play a clean game.

3. They won’t: The Sharks’s chances are slim in this one. Even in the most wildest scenarios where TCU is missing a large chunk of players, the Horned Frogs still have more than enough to win this game going away. There’s a reason LIU beating TCU would be one of the largest upsets in college football history and it’s because the Sharks are far from being a North Dakota State or any of the other teams at the top of the FCS. TCU should win this game comfortably.