Three reasons why TCU football will defeat or be beaten by Houston in Big 12 matchup

Three Reasons Why is back and it’s a special Friday Night Lights edition as the Horned Frogs host Houston on Oct. 4 at 6:30 p.m. at Amon G. Carter Stadium.

It’s a great opportunity for TCU (3-2 overall, 1-1 in Big 12) to start a small winning streak before heading into the bye week. A win over the Cougars (1-4, 0-2) would potentially set the stage for a showdown against a top-25 Utah team on the road.

But while we can afford to look ahead, the Horned Frogs can’t or they could suffer a loss that would jump right up to the top of the worst of the Sonny Dykes’ era. There’s plenty at stake despite Houston’s record.

Here’s three reasons why TCU will pick up another Big 12 win or endure another ugly upset:

Three reasons why TCU will defeat Houston

1. Lackluster Cougars offense: It’s been a tough three-game stretch for the TCU defense after allowing at least 27 points in three straight games, but the Horned Frogs’ defense should receive a break against a Houston team that has the worst scoring offense in the country. Houston is averaging just over 10 points per game. The Cougars were shutout by Cincinnati and Iowa State and UNLV held the Cougars to just seven points.

If Houston manages to score more than 20 points against TCU, then the Horned Frogs could be in trouble.

2. QB edge: The gap between Josh Hoover and Donovan Smith is immense, even with Hoover coming off two straight multi-turnover games. Hoover (1,774) has almost thrown for three times as many yards as Smith (681) has this season. Hoover has thrown 14 touchdowns compared to just two for Smith and Smith has actually thrown for more interceptions despite a smaller volume of passing attempts.

An average game by Hoover should be enough to get TCU in the win column.

3. Talent advantage: This could be one of the last times we can say this this season, but the Horned Frogs have a much superior roster than Houston. The Cougars brought in roughly 60 new players according to Dykes, but this is going to be a difficult rebuild for Wille Fritz. Across the board, there’s not a unit where Houston should have the edge over TCU, except maybe on the defensive line. But even there TCU should have more depth.

Without a clear weakness to exploit, Houston should struggle on Friday.

Three reasons why Houston will upset TCU

1. Stingy defense: The Cougars have been playing stout defense this season despite having arguably the worst offense in the country. The most impressive performance came in Norman when Houston held Oklahoma to just 16 points. The unit has also been able to play really good halves like when it held Iowa State to just three points in the first half. If Houston is able to create enough turnovers then it could lead to the Cougars hanging around in the fourth quarter.

2. Return game?: According to Dykes, one of the most impressive things about Houston has been their return game in special teams. Mekhi Mews has already returned one punt for a touchdown and special teams also doomed TCU against SMU when the Horned Frogs allowed a punt return score and another lengthy kickoff return that was an inch or two away from being a touchdown.

If you can’t score on offense, finding a way to generate points on special teams could be the key to an upset for Houston.

3. Apathy: Out of their four losses, only one of Houston’s defeats were by single digits. As well as the defense has played, Houston has struggled to stay competitive most of the season. If TCU plays anything close to their A-game, then this game shouldn’t be competitive in the second half either, but it’s still fair to wonder what type of effort the Horned Frogs will provide. The last thing you want to give a desperate team is a glimmer of hope.

If TCU gets off to a slow start like it did against SMU or Kansas, Houston could be emboldened to make this one close.