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Three-Point Stance: Will Watkins, McCoy pay fantasy bills in Buffalo?

Watkins' smooth recovery could soon have his ADP on the rise. (Getty)
Watkins’ smooth recovery could soon have his ADP on the rise. (Getty)

Rex Ryan’s theme song is “Hot in Herre.” But please Rex, don’t take off all your clothes. Pressure is mounting for the second-year Buffalo coach to lead a winner and challenge New England for a division crown. Though odds of the ‘Fightin’ Jim Kellys’ achieving that are rather long, they feature a handful of titillating fantasy players. In this edition of ‘The Stance,’ Brad Evans and Liz Loza circle the wagons and discuss key Bills.

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According to the horse’s mouth, Sammy Watkins is nearing 100 percent after undergoing foot surgery earlier in the offseason. Because pedal-related setbacks can linger, should fantasy investors BUY or FLY on the wide receiver at his 29.1 (WR17) ADP?

Liz – BUY. This isn’t an older player trying to speed up his recovery mid-season. While foot injuries are nothing to scoff at, Watkins is young enough – and went under the knife early enough – to get back to 100 percent by Week 1. With his rehab reportedly on track, the 23-year-old presents solid value in the late third round of drafts.

The Clemson product exploded over the final nine weeks of 2015, averaging over 5 catches per contest and notching five 100+ yard outings. From Weeks 9 through 17 Watkins was the third most productive fantasy player at the position and averaged an impressive 18.4 YPR. Despite being tied to a low-volume passing offense, his big play ability in tandem with his No. 1 status places Watkins on the WR1/WR2 fantasy bubble. Fearless Forecast: 75-1,100-7.

Brad – BUY. BUY. BUY. For those of us who participated in stupidly early drafts, trepidation about Watkins was warranted. Foot injuries are nothing to mess with. However, with his health trending in the right direction, it’s safe to assume the rubber-burning receiver will suit up Week 1.

Watkins was dynamite in 13 games last season. He developed into a well-rounded weapon, often humiliating defenders downfield and near the goal-line. His 10.9 yards per target set the pace at the position and he enticed 25 percent of Buffalo’s red-zone targets. Because of Tyrod’s propensity for airing it out and given his limited competition for looks, Watkins will teeter on the WR top-10 line, provided his bones/tendons remain intact.

Karlos Williams, noticeably rotund in minicamp, was recently slapped with a four-game suspension for violating the league’s drug policy. Meanwhile, rookie Jonathan Williams was arrested for DWI, putting him in hot water with the league. Considering Mike Gillislee (and possibly Reggie Bush) is LeSean McCoy’s only challenger for carries, at least initially, OVER/UNDER 299.5 total touches for ‘Shady.’

Liz – OVER. Never thought McCoy would be the best-behaved back in Buffalo, but such is the case. Last year the Bills called the second most rushing plays in the league while averaging the most rushing yards per game (152). For his part, Shady averaged 19.5 total touches per start, churning out a respectable 4.4 YPC. Remarkably, after the passing game clicked following the team’s Week 8 bye, McCoy’s touches per contest actually increased.

Yes, there’s a good chance he’ll break down, but fantasy championships are won early. The above line assumes a 16-week season, which is unlikely, but the vet’s per game production is too good to pass on. Plus, with Williams’ status in question, McCoy should find the end zone with more regularity, at least at the start of the season while his legs are still fresh. As for the defense, forgive me or not having more faith in a Ryan Bros run squad.

Brad – Slightly UNDER. Full disclosure, McCoy was on pace for 313 total touches last season before exiting stage left with a torn MCL. Without a doubt, he’ll be the centerpiece of a Greg Roman attack featuring a rigid offensive line. That is, when the Bills defense actually shows up. The unit, which finished No. 19 in total defense, is a possible hindrance, though it has the talent to quickly right the ship.

Toss in his relatively high odometer reading, recent knack for setbacks and mediocre track-record for hitting the pylons (two double-digit TD seasons in seven) and he’s a borderline RB1. Assuming Bush eventually signs to ease McCoy’s burden, a 270-290 touch total seems appropriate.

Tyrod Taylor was a poor man’s Cam Newton last season. His dual-threat abilities, accuracy and go-deep willingness catapulted him into the QB top-10. At his 139.4 (QB16) price, is the passer OVERVALUED, UNDERVALUED or PROPERLY VALUED.

Liz – UNDERVALUED. I understand the trepidation. Taylor is a small QB, whose best/only receiver recently had a screw inserted into his foot, and he’s operating behind a line that was ranked among the bottom five in terms of pass-protection.

However, he’s also an accurate passer with a sweet set of wheels, who threw for 20 TDs and turned the ball over just 6 times, while padding his stats with 568 rushing yards and 4 TDs in 2015. Heading into 2016, Taylor will have had a full offseason to prepare, and he should be doubly motivated in a contact year. He’s not in QB1 territory for me, but he’s an ideal late-round grab for owners targeting Tom Brady or wanting to stash a back-up at the position.

Brad – How about CRIMINALLY UNDERVALUED? Tyrod was one of the virtual game’s surprise sensations last year. He ranked top-10 in several marquee categories including yards per attempt (QB5), passer rating (QB7), rushing yards (QB2) and fantasy points per dropback (QB3). Even behind a flawed pass-blocking line, his ability to break contain greatly padded the bottom line.

Potential complications with Watkins clearly watered down his perceived value in early exercises, but it’s asinine most aren’t weighing him as a possible QB1. Recall last season his 19.6 fantasy points per game in standard Yahoo leagues ranked ahead of more expensive passers Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning and Kirk Cousins.

Wake up and smell the stats FOOLS!

Bull rush Brad @YahooNoise and Liz @LizLoza_FF on Twitter.