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The Fantasy Football Numbers Do Lie: We need to downsize our expectations for two young WRs

dalton del don
Fantasy analyst
·5 min read

A simple look at a box score or a study of fantasy football categories doesn't always tell the whole story of how a player is performing. Dalton Del Don attempts to identify misleading numbers that are worth a closer look.

Yes ... The Numbers Do Lie.

Harrison Jr. ranks 59th in receptions and 38th in red-zone targets, but he’s tied for the second-most touchdown catches in the league. He has fewer receptions than Michael Wilson and has been incredibly touchdown-dependent, with 35% of his fantasy scoring coming from TDs. The rookie has erased any early concerns about his speed, but his role has been shaky in an Arizona offense that’s taken a step back this season. Harrison Jr. is one of only two receivers who have seen go routes or fades on 30%+ of their targets.

Harrison Jr.’s 42.2% air yards share looks nice, but it comes with a 60% catchable target rate that ranks 74th in the league. He’s among the league leaders in unrealized air yards while recording the second most contested catches. Among pass catchers with at least 25 targets, Harrison Jr. ranks 39th in designed target rate (5.9%). MHJ isn’t seeing any layup targets and hasn’t caught more than five balls in a game yet.

Harrison Jr. has averaged 8.4 fantasy points (0.5 PPR) when not facing the worst passing defense in the league (the Rams are allowing 9.0 YPA!), which would make him the WR46 on the year. Moreover, MHJ will likely be shadowed by Jaire Alexander (who returned to practice Wednesday) this week, and after that, he doesn’t face a defense that currently ranks outside the top 10 in WR fantasy scoring allowed until Week 13!

Kyler Murray is averaging just 194.4 passing yards this season, and Arizona’s offense has been a disaster outside of opening drives; Murray has gotten 10.0 YPA with a 6:0 TD:INT ratio (and his lone rushing score) during attempts 1-10 this season, but that drops to a 5.3 YPA with 1:2 TD:INT ratio after the scripted plays (attempts 11+).

Harrison Jr. will make plays, but the early touchdowns (and a matchup versus the Rams) have masked a discouraging role in a disappointing offense. Trey McBride has yet to break out this year (more in him later), and Wilson is emerging. Harrison Jr. will settle in as a top-20 fantasy wide receiver, but his expectations need to be lowered (he’s closer to Brian Thomas Jr. than a healthy Malik Nabers).

Wilson easily had his best game of the season last week, racking up 13 catches for 101 yards and a score. But it took 23 targets, which is the fifth most since the stat started being tracked in 1992. Wilson’s route chart was absolutely horrifying Sunday, and the Jets were facing a Vikings defense that entered allowing by far the highest pass rate and the most passing yards in the league. It was Wilson’s first weekly finish inside the top 10 WRs since his rookie season.

New York has scored the same number of points over five games as they did last season, when Zach Wilson had a better YPA than Aaron Rodgers currently has. Garrett Wilson’s average depth of target (8.1 yards) ranks 43rd in the league, and 70% of his targets have come behind the line of scrimmage or within nine yards. He ranks first in targets this season with 56 but just 22 of them have been catchable. His yards per target (5.2) is the sixth worst in the league.

While it’s unclear how a head coaching change fixes the offense, at least Nate Hackett was stripped of his play-calling duties. The chemistry between Rodgers and Wilson is also sure to improve, but Wilson could also be competing for targets with Davante Adams soon.

Wilson gets a stingy Buffalo pass defense this week followed by shadow matchups with Joey Porter Jr. and Christian Gonzalez. Like Harrison Jr., Wilson has a disappointing role on an underperforming offense, so he’s unlikely to be worth his lofty ADP despite last week’s misleading performance.

The window to buy low in a trade has slammed shut after top-three RB finishes each of the last two weeks, but Swift's season-long fantasy production remains misleading thanks to a slow start and unlucky TD production. Swift was tackled at the one-yard line (and didn’t later score on that drive) three separate times last week when he also had a touchdown run nullified by an illegal shift penalty. Swift had seven carries inside the 10 last week yet saw Roschon Johnson pilfer two short scores.

Swift’s usage has been the same over the last two weeks, but his production has skyrocketed even with the unlucky scoring. A highly favorable schedule has helped, but Swift has looked good and more comfortable in a new Chicago offense. Most importantly, Caleb Williams has shown real growth.

Swift is rotating goal-line opportunities with Johnson, but Khalil Herbert has been put on ice. Swift is the RB13 in expected fantasy points, just ahead of Derrick Henry and Jahmyr Gibbs. Moreover, the Bears have the second-easiest projected RB schedule over the next five games.

Swift was also stopped at the one the second most times in the league (six) last year, but his fortune should regress at the goal line. More touchdowns are coming, so Swift qualifies as a buy-high in fantasy trades.

McBride was knocked out of one game and missed another due to a concussion. He’s seen a 29%+ target share in three of four games this season and has the easiest remaining tight end schedule. He’s been charted as open about three times as much as Sam LaPorta while running a similar number of routes. McBride dropped a potential touchdown in the end zone last week, and he leads all tight ends in first-read target rate (25.9%).

McBride has a better separation rate and a higher designed target rate (13.3% vs. 5.9%) than Marvin Harrison Jr., who’s running a ton of go and fade routes. McBride will benefit from Harrison’s limited route role, and he led all tight ends in first downs per route run last season as a sophomore.

Travis Kelce sans Rashee Rice and the emerging Brock Bowers have arguments, but McBride is right there with them as fantasy’s top tight end moving forward.