Tavares Is Thriving In Contract Year With Leafs, But What Will His Next Deal Look Like?

The Toronto Maple Leafs and star center John Tavares are in an odd place – in a somewhat good way.

After seeing his production drop last season, Tavares is back to his usual consistent self, posting 15 goals and 28 points in 30 games this season. He's also got two hat tricks and has earned rave reviews from Maple Leafs coach Craig Berube for his competitiveness. He's helping the club sit at the top of the Eastern Conference and put itself in a better position for the playoffs.

But his strong play reignites the speculation about what Tavares will look for when he becomes a UFA this summer. And the answer may not please Leafs fans.

In his previous 15 NHL seasons, the 34-year-old Tavares has been close to or better than a point-per-game player 11 times. His dependability on offense is one of the reasons why he’s earning $11 million per season.

That price will be far too high for the Maple Leafs next season, even with a rising salary cap ceiling. Tavares has to take a hometown discount if he wants to remain a Leaf, and it now comes down to how much of a discount he has to take to make his next contract palatable for Toronto.

Related: Is Toronto Maple Leafs Star Mitch Marner Worth A Larger Cap Hit Than Other 'Core Four' Players?

Tavares is currently on a 40-goal, 75-point pace – and that goal-scoring total would be the second-highest of his NHL career behind his 47 goals with Toronto in 2018-19. But considering the Buds will face a salary cap crunch next season, there’s no way Tavares can come back with the same cap hit, let alone with a raise. And Leafs fans will expect Tavares to come back at a much less onerous contract – similar to the deals former Boston Bruins centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejci signed late in their careers.

In Krejci’s final NHL season in 2022-23, he was on a $1-million deal – and he still produced 40 assists and 56 points in 70 games during that final season. Meanwhile, Bergeron played his final season in 2022-23 on a $2.5-million contract, and Bergeron generated 27 goals and 58 points in 78 games.

In playing on bargain contracts, Bergeron and Krejci allowed the Bruins to improve their overall depth, and that’s what Leafs fans (and very probably, Leafs management) will want from Tavares starting next season.

Tavares is younger than Krejci and Bergeron were in their final season, and so we’re going to project Tavares wants something in the two- to three-year area in terms of contract term. But here’s the key issue: will Tavares accept a cap hit between $4 million and $5 million? That might be as good a hometown discount as it gets, although it could be wishful thinking. Either way, taking a bigger pay cut would permit Maple Leafs GM Brad Treliving to stock the Leafs’ forwards shelf with more talent than they’d otherwise get if Tavares insisted on $8 million or $9 million annually.

Tavares definitely understands the financial picture, and we believe he'll do what he can to help Toronto build a deep and experienced team. However, there must still be a give-and-take in average annual salary and contract term, which could cause problems for Tavares and the Leafs.

Being part of Toronto's “Core Four” has been very lucrative for Tavares. But that monetary windfall is coming to an end for him. Now, it’s all about the optics of giving back to the team for Tavares. Simply put, he can’t demand the same salary he’s working on this season if he wants to stay.

If Toronto's cap situation weren’t a problem, it would be easy to bring back Tavares until he’s at or near the end of his NHL days. But with every goal and point he produces, Tavares helps push his team forward this year but makes a new deal that much tougher to come to terms with next season. If he signs a deal similar to the one Bergeron or Krejci signed, Leafs fans will be thrilled with Tavares. But if he wants anywhere close to what he’s currently earning, Tavares might be playing his final season in Toronto. It’s all up to him, and the approach Tavares takes will dictate whether he remains in Blue and White or finishes his NHL career with a different team.

Related: After Heatley Returned To Ottawa, Will Islanders, Fans Ever Honor Tavares After His Career?

Get the latest news and trending stories right to your inbox by subscribing to The Hockey News newsletter here. And share your thoughts by commenting below the article on THN.com or by visiting our forum.