Survivor Denver: Who's in, who's out of FedEx Cup Playoffs with 18 holes to go in 2024 BMW Championship

CASTLE ROCK, Colo. — It's the tournament within the tournament at the BMW Championship: the quest to make the top 30 in the season-long FedEx Cup Standings and advance to the Tour Championship at East Lake Golf Club in Atlanta. Besides the oodles of cash up for grabs next week, the top 30 qualify for three of the four majors (and likely the PGA Championship too) as well as exempt status through the 2026 season. So, there will be Sunday Drama besides who goes home with the two trophies given to the winner.

With 18 holes to go a lot likely will change to the standings but heading into the final round, there are four players projected to move in to the top 30 and thus four who will have their bubble burst. Here's a closer look at who could be flying to Atlanta and who may be going home.

Keegan Bradley (No. 50 to No. 4)

Bradley, 38, was the last man in the field but he's played some stellar golf through three rounds. His third-round 2-under 70 at Castle Pines Golf Club lifted him to 12-under 204 and a one-stroke lead heading into the final round. Bradley, the 2018 BMW champion, is bidding for his seventh career Tour title. The winner gets 2,000 FedEx Cup points, which has him projected to leap from the last man into the 50-man field to No. 4.

Adam Scott (No. 41 to No. 9)

Adam Scott needed 11 more strokes on Saturday than a day earlier but he's still in the thick of the trophy hunt. He began the day with a three-stroke lead but it disappeared quickly, playing the first six holes in 4 over. He did manage to battle back to card a 2-over 74, which has him alone in second place and just one stroke back. He's projected to climb from No. 41 to No. 9 and would be East Lake bound.

Alex Noren (No. 45 to No. 22)

After a sluggish start on the front nine, Noren finished with a flurry of three straight birdies to shoot 2-under 70 and he's T-3 heading into the final round. That has him projected to jump from No. 45 to No. 22. Noren said he'll keep the same mindset for the final round. "As boring as it sounds, I just need to keep playing my game."

Tommy Fleetwood (No. 31 to No. 29)

Fleetwood started the week as the last man out. He'll enter the final round on the right side of the cut off but not by much — his cushion is just 17 points. Fleetwood shot 2-under 70 and sits T-9 heading into the final round. The Englishman is projected to bump up from No. 31 to No. 29.

Justin Thomas (No. 22 to No. 31)

Thomas was grinding on the range with his dad searching for answers. He's T-45, beating just two players in the field, and after a third-round 74, he's 6-over and will need to shoot an under-par round and could use some help to get back to East Lake. He started the week at No. 22 and he's projected to drop to No. 31. But he's just four points out of 30th position.

Jason Day (No. 25 to No. 32)

Day dug himself a big hole with a 78 in the opening round. He's improved with rounds of 69-71 but sits T-37 and needs to make up at least 44 points to make the top 30.

Davis Thompson (No. 26 to No. 35)

Thompson also started poorly on Thursday (76) and will need a low round on Sunday to have a chance. The 25-year-old from University of Georgia sits in T-41 after a 3-under 69, which included four birdies in his final five holes. He's 75 points behind at No. 35.

Denny McCarthy (No. 30 to No. 37)

McCarthy was the Bubble Boy at the start of the week at No. 30. Two back-nine doubles on Friday were costly en route to a 74. He bounced back with a 69 on Saturday but he's slipped to No. 37 and will need an incredibly-low round on Sunday to have a tee time at East Lake on Thursday.

This article originally appeared on Golfweek: Survivor Denver: Who's in, who's out of FedEx Cup Playoffs with 18 holes to go in 2024 BMW Championship