Suns offseason primer: Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul trade possibilities, more

yossi gozlan

Fri, May 12, 2023, 12:20 a.m.·7 min read

The Suns have one of the best star duos in the league but not much else around it. They were hoping to rebuild their depth but restrictions added in the new CBA will make it difficult for them to do so. Their best way forward will likely require them to trade some of their highest-paid players for depth and re-sign their free agents.

Here is a preview of the 2023 offseason for the Phoenix Suns.

Second apron restrictions and alternative paths

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

When the Suns traded for Kevin Durant, they gave up a lot of depth in the process. They made short-term sacrifices with the goal of deepening the roster over time. Unfortunately, the new CBA added several new rules that will severely complicate their ability to add to the roster.

The Suns are entering the summer $3.6 million over the luxury tax line with just seven players under contract. They became taxpayers in 2022-23 for the first time in over a decade but being in the tax going forward was baked into the deal when they made it. What they weren’t anticipating was the implementation of the second tax apron and the roster-building restrictions it would come with.

Teams over the second tax apron in 2023-24 will lose access to the mid-level exception, be limited to taking back 110 percent of outgoing salaries in trades instead of 125 percent, and won’t be allowed to sign players in the buyout market. Starting in 2024-25, they won’t be able to take back more salaries than they’re giving out in trades, aggregate players in trades, use trade exceptions from previous seasons, convey cash in trades, or receive players on existing contracts by sign-and-trading their own free agents.

The Suns are just $14 million below the second tax apron. If they choose to operate over the second tax apron, they’d be limited to re-signing free agents as their best chance at adequately deepening their roster. They would have no issue re-signing Torrey Craig and Jock Landale since they have their Early Bird rights. However, they are limited to re-signing Damion Lee, Josh Okogie, Terrence Ross, and TJ Warren to either a minimum salary or 120 percent of that amount.

Phoenix’s current depth or lack of it drove a large part of their postseason struggles, so it’s hard to imagine them running back this team. This upcoming year could be their last chance to make an unbalanced trade where they take on more salaries before the second tax apron restrictions go into full effect. However, they don’t have any tradeable first-round picks going forward, which will limit their return in any trades.

Trade possibilities

(Photo by Christian Petersen/Getty Images)

Their best chance at significantly improving the roster will be by trading one or both of Deandre Ayton and Chris Paul. Both players are set to earn over $30 million next season but have played well below the value of their deals. The Suns probably won’t be able to acquire a better player straight up for either, but they could potentially break up their respective salaries into multiple role players.

Deconsolidating Ayton or Paul would allow the Suns to deepen their roster while potentially decreasing their payroll. This could allow them to open up more flexibility below the second tax apron and utilize the taxpayer mid-level exception. If they trade both, they could potentially open up the non-taxpayer mid-level exception and bi-annual exception and even avoid the luxury tax altogether.

Ayton’s trade value fell after stagnating in his development and displaying a lack of effort at times during the playoffs. There should be teams interested in acquiring Ayton but only at a good price when factoring in he’s on a maximum contract. The Mavericks could be interested in him, and some other teams that could make sense for him include the Bulls, Spurs, Hornets, and Pacers, who originally signed him to his offer sheet.

Paul, on the other hand, might not have much trade value at all given his age and $60.8 million owed over the next two seasons. If the Suns can’t move him, they could waive him and re-sign him to the $12.2 million mid-level exception. He would add a $15.8 million dead cap hit but the set off would reduce it by $5.2 million. This maneuvering would allow them to keep Paul next year while saving $8 million.

Free agent: Torrey Craig

Trevor Ruszkowski-USA TODAY Sports

Torrey Craig could be the biggest beneficiary of the Suns’ purge of wing players from the Durant trade. He was taken out of the team’s rotation against the Nuggets but they may be hard-pressed to acquire a wing significantly better than him this summer. That’s because of the restrictions the Suns will have toward improving the roster, like potentially not having the taxpayer mid-level exception.

He could be looking at a significant raise with the Suns this summer regardless of whether they operate as a second tax apron team. That’s because he’s the only free agent wing in Phoenix’s rotation they can comfortably re-sign. Craig will be an Early Bird free agent this offseason, which would allow the Suns to re-sign him for up to a maximum of four years, projected at $54 million.

Free agent: Jock Landale

Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports

Jock Landale is the Suns’ other top free agent this summer and he also has Early Bird rights. He emerged as a vital part of the Suns’ rotation during the season and played significant minutes in the playoffs. He could also be looking at a significant raise after the breakthrough he made this year.

2023-24 SALARY SITUATION

Players rostered: 7

Guaranteed salaries: $144.2 million

Non-guaranteed salaries: $21.4 million

Total salary: $165.6 million

Luxury tax space: $3.6 million over the tax line

First apron space: $3.4 million

Second apron space: $13.9 million

Spending power:

Taxpayer mid-level exception: $5,000,000 (could lose access to this if they go over the second apron)
Dario Saric trade exception: $4,975,371 (expires February 9, 2024)

Kevin Durant

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $47,649,433

Remaining salary guaranteed: $146,108,475 through 2025-26

Additional notes:

$1.2 million in likely incentives

Devin Booker

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $36,016,200

Remaining salary guaranteed: $260,240,200 through 2027-28

Deandre Ayton

Mark J. Rebilas-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $32,459,438

Remaining salary guaranteed: $102,015,378 through 2025-26

Chris Paul

Joe Camporeale-USA TODAY Sports

2023-24 salary: $30,800,000

Remaining salary guaranteed: $15,800,000

Additional notes:

2023-24 season is partially guaranteed for $15.8 million. Fully guaranteed if not waived by June 28
2024-25 season is non guaranteed
Extension-eligible throughout 2023-24

Landry Shamet